Let the sunshine in

Chuck Todd Political Director • Profile

BOCA RATON, Fla. - The ever-shrinking Republican presidential field meets for potentially the last time as a 5-way contest on Thursday night here in Florida.

Broadcast live on MSNBC and streamed on msnbc.com from 9-10:30 p.m. EST, the debate will be moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams. He will be joined by Tim Russert, as well as St. Petersburg Times editor Paul Tash.

It is the only debate before the state’s crucial Jan. 29 primary. And there’s a do-or-die feel to it.

One tries to avoid the prediction game, particularly this campaign  season, and yet all signs point to this debate being one of the most contentious of the cycle for the GOP.

Why? If the candidates don't stop McCain now, they never will.

There's still no frontrunner in the GOP contest but there is a candidate in the “momentum slot.” It's my way of labeling the candidate who is just short of being the frontrunner.

Third place in a NASCAR race
Every one of the field (even a candidate who just dropped out) has spent time in this slot. It's kind of like being in 3rd place in a NASCAR race. You've got plenty of opportunity to take the lead and can even  do it for a lap or two, but the ideal is to sit back and wait for the opportunity to draft.

That way when you take the lead, you push the other candidates so far back they can't catch you.

John McCain's in this “momentum slot,” just one win away from truly becoming the frontrunner.

And don't think Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani don't know this. Both  campaigns will privately admit that neither of them will be the nominee without winning Florida.

Romney's got two options:

• First, he could win Florida outright and set up a long-term delegate showdown with McCain. He'd likely have the upper hand in this case thanks to bottomless pockets;
  
• And second, Giuliani could win, in which case the race is muddied up even longer.

With McCain on the cusp of going from a near-dead candidacy to the GOP nominee (with a Florida victory helping him wrap up the race on Feb. 5), this final debate is perhaps the last chance his opponents have to produce negative information about him.

On one hand, Florida should be a great state for McCain. It's not as much Southern as it is Sunbelt, like a really big Arizona.

In addition, the state boasts lots of veterans – mostly transplants – and Florida Republicans understand the idea of electability.

Add to that the information gathered from the South Carolina exit poll Saturday. Notice how well McCain did with his peer age group (65+)? He won the group by nearly 20 points.

Last time I checked, Florida had its share of those over 65. So a patch to 35% (the number any winner of this primary is going to need) seems pretty easy.

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