'Meet the Press' transcript for Jan. 20, 2008

MR. RUSSERT: Huge racial divide. Clinton's camp believes that women and Latinos are a coalition that can work in New York and California and New Jersey. But the next stop is South Carolina. Half the state are African Americans. I was down there interviewing Hillary Clinton. I couldn't find a black who didn't want to talk about this issue and raise it passionately...

MS. NOONAN: Yes.

MR. RUSSERT: ...about what they had heard. Some felt that Obama's being dissed and not respected as a candidate; others were loyal to Clinton. As we approach South Carolina, I think we can remember in 1992, when Bill Clinton was at a pivotal stage of his campaign, and he decided to play the Sister Souljah card that was talked about--here she is the rap singer--and this is what Clinton had to say back then.

(Videotape, June 13, 1992):

MR. CLINTON: If you took the words white and black and you reversed them, you might think David Duke was giving that speech.

(End videotape)

MS. NOONAN: Hm.

MR. RUSSERT: Tom Brokaw, South Carolina is going to have a lot of racial overtones on that vote. Obama needs solid black support. If John Edwards' vote amongst whites begins to slip and Hillary Clinton lays claim to that, it could be a very close race and a very heated debate.

MR. BROKAW: And a very divisive race in terms of the two groups that are most important to the Democratic Party in South Carolina. I've been on the phone to young friends of mine down there who are African Americans and they have said to me that a lot of their fathers and grandfathers have some concerns about Barack Obama being the candidate next fall, about whether he can win and whether race will become too prominent in the campaign. And one of them said to me, "but my generation is much more cosmopolitan than that. We've been raised in a different way. I'm for Obama." This young man was not wildly enthusiastic about him, but he's certainly got a foot in the Obama waters at this point. And my guess is that it will help Obama a lot.

Now, Bill Clinton today, here in New York, is appearing with Andy Young, not at the Riverside Church, it turns out, because they were concerned about a political speech, but at another Baptists church commemorating the 40th anniversary of Dr. King coming out against Vietnam, while Hillary is at the Abyssinian Baptist Church with the Reverend Calvin Butts, who's a very prominent, as you know, establishment African American figure here. So this will play out pretty heavily in the next seven days.

MR. RUSSERT: Michele, as someone who spoke to Bill Clinton said, quoted him as saying, "I don't care about this stuff, about my image as the former president. I'm going to win this campaign. I'm going to go door-to-door in the black neighborhoods of South Carolina, church-to-church." Just like he went into the casinos and split the union vote with Barack Obama that was supposed to go to Obama, he's convinced he can win enough blacks to divide them and give Hillary Clinton South Carolina.

MS. NORRIS: You know, he does plan to go door-to-door and I suspect that when he does go door-to-door he may have some feisty conversations. I mean, people may be wagging their finger at him because having been in South Carolina, there is a passionate roiling debate about this. I mean, I went down there thinking that perhaps there was a generational divide on the ground when I realized it's much more of an establishment vs. grassroots divide. Hillary Clinton locked up a lot of the establishment support early on. She had clergy behind her. And you're hearing in churches almost about revolts with the congregationists standing up and saying, "You know, we are not going to follow lockstep behind the clergy in this case."

Heard a story about a 92-year-old man who made an altar call, made his way up to the altar slowly and talked about Dr. King, and basically almost took the pulpit from the pastor, and came around to this notion of don't be shackled by fear. And that's what's so interesting about what's going on here, is Barack Obama has ignited this debate about whether you should support someone who is viable, whether you should let go of your fears, whether you should believe in the hope, and people are--you know, there's one story I heard about someone in a beauty shop, and the beautician almost put the customer out of the chair because they were, you know, arguing about one supported Obama and one supported Clinton.

MR. RUSSERT: Now, that is serious.

MS. NORRIS: Yeah, that's very serious.

MR. MEACHAM: The "Steel Magnolias"...(unintelligible).

MR. RUSSERT: We have to take a quick break. A lot more of our conversation. The race for the White House 2008. We'll be right back.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT: A lot more of our conversation. What a race for the White House, both parties still up for grabs. We'll be right back.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT: And we are back. Live from New York, it's Sunday morning. We are in Studio 8H, the home of "Saturday Night Live." But our conversation is much different today, I hope, with an august panel. Not since Thomas Jefferson dined alone have we had such intellectual candle power.

Tom Brokaw, the fact is, however, Hillary Clinton lost Iowa. She was on her knees, got back up in New Hampshire and won, and now has won at least the popular vote in Nevada.

MR. BROKAW: Just a few...

MR. RUSSERT: She's had a successful couple primaries.

MR. BROKAW: Just a few floors below here two weeks ago this coming Tuesday, the funeral dirge was playing, people were beginning to drape her campaign in black and they were saying, "Well, it's kind of touching, isn't it, to watch the Clintons standing there together, because that era is over." Now she's won two in a row. I think there are a couple of things that probably help her based on what we're seeing, from what people say. I think that the women vote, obviously, the ability to coalesce the Latinos. Also, this country is in a state of anxiety, Tim. There's great concern about the economy and what's going to happen. We are at war on two different fronts. And in one poll after another, she gets very high marks for being experienced and having an ability to run the country. And that's probably helping her right now.

Now, we're living through a very fluid time. In three weeks, what will be the issue then? I'm not sure. All of them have come up with a stimulus program of some kind, which indicates the kind of urgency that everybody feels, including the president. Does remind me of a track--of a truck running down the highway, and it gets flats all at once, and now you've got everybody going around with those little aerosol cans trying to fix the flat tires in some fashion, try to get it going again.

MS. GOODWIN: You have a lot of good transportation metaphors.

MR. RUSSERT: In fact, let's take a look at those stimulus package.

MR. BROKAW: Yeah. Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT: Because it is quite striking how the candidates have come forward.

MR. BROKAW: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: It was actually John Edwards who in December was the first to say, "Hey, I think we need a stimulus package."

MR. BROKAW: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: He ponied up, he said, "Let cost $100 billion." Then Hillary Clinton in January said, "No, we can do one for $70 billion." Then Barack Obama came in and said, "How about $120 billion?"

MS. NOONAN: Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT: George Bush--"no, let's do $145 billion." But there is bipartisan acknowledgement that this economy needs some juice to it.

MS. NOONAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. MEACHAM: I think by far the big plurality of voters in South Carolina, that was the first thing they were worried about.

MR. BROKAW: Yeah.

MR. MEACHAM: More so than terrorism, more so than even moral values, and it's going to be the dominant question, God willing, as long as there's not...

MR. BROKAW: (Unintelligible).

MR. RUSSERT: And who can talk to the country about a complicated issue like the global economy, where American companies are going hat in hand begging for foreign investment? Huckabee--Mike Huckabee was on "The Tonight Show," and this is how he framed the issue. Let's watch.

(Videotape, "The Tonight Show"):

MR. HUCKABEE: People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off.

(End videotape)

MS. NOONAN: Oh!

MR. RUSSERT: Simplistic?

MS. NOONAN: Gee.

MS. GOODWIN: But it worked.

MS. NOONAN: Who do you think he might be talking about? I think he might be talking about Mitt Romney.

MS. NORRIS: I think so.

MS. NOONAN: The former Bain Capital CEO.

MR. BROKAW: Took off his suit jacket and his tie not too long after that appearance, by the way, and started appearing...

MS. NORRIS: Right.

MS. NOONAN: We saw it last night.

MR. RUSSERT: Who used to, "restructure" companies.

MS. NOONAN: But seriously.

MR. RUSSERT: Yep.

MS. NOONAN: Romney will be one of--one of the big dogs down in Florida trying to get a hold of this thing. He does have a deep and serious background in business, a successful one, and if you talk to him, the single issue on which he is most compelling is America's competitive position in the world. Things that can hurt America, who's competing, what we have to do to make sure we are still running a fabulous economy. He really does have that in a way that is more compelling than the other candidates on the Republican side, and certainly, I think, on the Democratic side.

MS. GOODWIN: Yeah. You know, it's interesting, what matters is where their passion lay. McCain's passion lay in honor, in country, in patriotism, in the war.

MS. NOONAN: Mm.

MS. GOODWIN: And it may not be that he'll find that it's easy to project that passion with the economy.

MS. NOONAN: Mm.

MS. GOODWIN: So to the extent the economy becomes an issue, I also think in some ways it helps Hillary Clinton, because, to the extent that Iraq became a big issue early on, then Obama was able to say, "I'm a new face in the world at large." And that's true, he could change maybe the way we think about America's world, as a beacon of hope to the world as a whole. And to the extent, however, that the economy comes in, then no longer is the argument the '90s weren't so great, foreign policywise, either, but now the '90s are this wonderful memory of a great economy.

MR. RUSSERT: Dot-com boom surpluses.

MS. GOODWIN: And Hillary--and Hillary can play on that memory.

And so that's what we don't know. It's not only how these candidates are going to change, but the issues are going to change, like you just suggested. If foreign policy comes back or Iraq comes back in a bigger positive or negative way, that could change this whole thing. So we can't coronate anyone for a while, I think.

MR. MEACHAM: I remember right after the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy, one of Kennedy's aides runs in and says, "We've got to do something about our Far Eastern problem. You're 10 feet tall, you can solve anything." And JFK said, "Yeah, for about two weeks."

MS. GOODWIN: Yeah, exactly. That's about it now.

MR. RUSSERT: Jon, you made the comment earlier about Hillary Clinton unifying the Republican Party.

MR. MEACHAM: Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT: It's been striking, over the past couple of weeks, about endorsements for Barack Obama from the so-called red states. Hillary Clinton has the governor, senator, from one of her homes states, Arkansas, she has Evan Bayh from Indiana and Governor Strickland of Ohio. But Obama has trotted out, even after New Hampshire, some interesting names. He has Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Tim Johnson in South Dakota, Tim Kaine in Virginia, Governor Napolitano in Arizona, Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Ben Nelson in Nebraska. And not all of them considered wild-eyed liberals, red state Democrats who are saying that Barack Obama rather than Hillary Clinton. Tom, what's that about?

MR. BROKAW: Well, I think that she still does have very high negatives, and the big concern for the Democrats is can we win in the fall. And the lingering question for Hillary, no matter how well she has run so far, no matter how impressive her campaign machine may be, I think there's that lingering question in the back of the minds of a lot of Democrats, "Can she carry us through the fall?" There's this great unrequited hunger on the part of the Democrats to get the White House back. They want to do it this time, and that's the issue that she really, I think, has to resolve in the next several weeks. In addition to winning these primaries along the way, she also has to persuade people that she can win in the fall, and we'll have to see how all that plays out.

You know, I think Jon is quite right, she unifies the party more than anyone else, but that's why I really welcome this idea of having a long debate and dialogue. Let the process go on. Let the country get involved.

MS. GOODWIN: Yeah, you know, I think if the Democrats feel confident that their base can pull off a victory--if, for example, Huckabee were the nominee--then I think there'd be less concern about the independent vote that Obama can bring.

MR. BROKAW: Mm-hmm.

MS. GOODWIN: But to the extent that they're worried, as you were saying earlier, about the 50/50 election, what he's shown in every state so far, even those that he lost, was a much greater crossover possibility. Independents wanting him. So if they're running against McCain, who has that independent vote, then I think Obama's strength, stronger. So that's why, again, things are going to shift as we go along.

MS. NOONAN: (Unintelligible).

MS. NORRIS: When you're on the ground, also, you really hear the Republican operatives. I mean, this is a conversation that I actually heard in South Carolina talking about how much they really want a Hillary Clinton victory.

MR. BROKAW: Mm-hmm.

MS. NORRIS: I mean, they actually will talk openly about bringing Barack Obama down a few notches because they want to run against Hillary.

MR. MEACHAM: Because it's a known known, to give Secretary--former Secretary Rumsfeld his due. Hillary Clinton, they know what to do. Barack Obama, how do you run against the first African American nominee? It explodes all conventional campaign dogma in ways that completely will surprise and pleasantly and unpleasantly perhaps as they go forward. And I that that that's the--one of the things that's so scary about Obama to Republicans is they don't how to run against him.

MR. RUSSERT: Doris, you inspired to me to ask the question of the candidates in the Las Vegas debate about weaknesses and strengths. And Obama said one of his weaknesses is he's disorganized. But he does not want to be an operating officer. He wants to have a vision. Hillary Clinton said, "No, no, that's wrong. I want to be an operating officer, I want to run and manage the bureaucracy." It was a profound difference of view towards what the job of president is.

MS. GOODWIN: You know, it's interesting. I mean, on the one hand you've got to give Obama credit for admitting a weakness, whereas the other two candidates said, "I'm too passionate," or, you know, "I'm impatient for change." I mean, we want them to be honest, and then they get screwed when they're honest. He made a funny comment the next day where he said, "You know, if only I'd gone third" and you'd ask him last, he said, "I would have said weakness, yeah, I've got a weakness. I like to help old ladies across the street." I mean that was great. But I think you're right. It does indicate a different feeling about what the presidency should be and that's fabulously interesting.

You know on the one hand, FDR had a disorganized presidency. People during the home front said, "You know, there's too much conflict going on up there and he doesn't really work on this very well." He said, "What matters is if you mobilize the base of the people, then I'm going to be able to get done what I need to for the war."

And Hillary, I think is saying, she understands the role of inspiration, she's talked about that and the role of somehow being able to mobilize the people. But she says you got to be able to manage on day one. And I don't think that he was really saying by saying he had a disorderly desk that he was going to be a Bush-like CEO president, but she was able to move right in. I mean, it was very quick on her part to change that level of the topic to that conversation.

MR. BROKAW: I think she's helped as well, Tim, by the perceived feeling in this country that President Bush has been a disaster in terms of managing the presidency. That's a lesson that everybody wakes up with every morning at this point.

MS. GOODWIN: (Unintelligible).

MR. BROKAW: Republicans and Democrats alike. I have never heard as many Republicans, gold-star, born and bred Republicans, so unhappy with the management of this country by a Republican president now.

MS. NOONAN: Totally true.

MR. BROKAW: And I think that when she played the competence card and the experience card, it's measured against that.

MS. GOODWIN: Right.

MR. BROKAW: We don't want to go back into an unknown again. Here is somebody who does know what she's doing. That does pop up in the polls. But the counterweight to it, of course, is still not entirely comfortable with her. I have questions about her character and concern about whether she can win.

MS. NOONAN: May I say, dynasticism is part of this, too?

MS. GOODWIN: Oh, yeah.

MS. NOONAN: We haven't mentioned it, but there is this Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton--I've called it a sickness. It is an odd way for a great democracy to comport itself in this strange--we have dynasties now backed by lobbyists, backed by machines and machinery. The fact that America's doing this is giving so many people pause. It us unlike us. And I cannot help but think, as some people come forward and endorse on the Democratic side Mrs. Clinton, they must be thinking stop the dynasty. I know Republicans are thinking stop the dynasties.

MR. BROKAW: But on NBC, you'd be happy with Russert, Brokaw, Russert, Brokaw. That would be OK?

MS. NOONAN: Forever, Tom. Forever.

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