Turning chaos into comeback

ANALYSIS

By John Mercurio

updated 1:07 p.m. ET Jan. 17, 2008

John Mercurio • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani limped out of Michigan with a sixth-place ribbon, trailing never-beens  Ron Paul and Fred Thompson. Again. It marked a new low for America’s Mayor, whose presidential prospects once seemed so bright that he could skip the Iowa straw poll without fear and attack Hillary Clinton with the authority of a presumptive nominee. Ironically, however, Republicans in Michigan may also have paved the way for Giuliani's rebirth.

Meet the GOP's next could-be "Comeback Kid," the frontrunner-turned-also-ran whose bid to build a Florida firewall -- once revered, then reviled -- looks today like a pretty smart gamble. Just last weekend, Giuliani was on the bubble for future TV debates. Now he's bubbling back up into contention.

That gamble’s paying off because Republicans, after two weeks and three major elections, are voting according to his plan, more divided than at any point in almost 30 years. Mitt Romney talks about winning "silvers" and "golds" (cue the 2002 Olympics soundtrack), but this race increasingly resembles the Special Olympics, where, yes, everyone can be a winner. The latest piece of Giuliani's chaos strategy to fall into place was Romney's strong win in Michigan, which gave the GOP field yet another front-runner and, more importantly, stalled John McCain. McCain, whose campaign is fueled not by money but post-New Hampshire momentum, is the only Republican with enough of a national base to muck up Giuliani's strategy.

But wait, you say. We've been down this road before. We've anointed more front-runners in this race than there are candidates. So what can Giuliani do between now and the Jan. 29 primary in Florida to guarantee he's cresting on Super Tuesday? With the help of the industrious Matt Berger, the NBC News/National Journal embed tracking Giuliani, I offer a few key suggestions:

• Expand his fundraising base: Giuliani showed he was having money troubles when senior staffers went without pay for January. Although the campaign says they have $7 million on hand for primaries, they're spending a lot on TV in Florida and have to finance other ad buys in major markets for Feb. 5. Many of his friends and most reliable donors have already maxed out.
• Root for Thompson in South Carolina: The next phase of Giuliani's strategy plays out Saturday in South Carolina, where Thompson is vowing a strong finish. A Thompson win would give him his day in the sun and would deny fresh momentum to any of the other GOP candidates. Unfortunately for Giuliani -- and for Thompson -- the former Tennessee senator is currently running fourth there.
• Break the Eleventh Commandment: Giuliani has said he won't attack his Republican rivals. But in this horse-race media cycle, policy differentiations don't make the nightly news. Giuliani will need to start going after Romney and McCain to get attention. Contrasting McCain will be especially important, because that is who potential Giuliani voters are also considering.

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• Relate on fiscal policy: Giuliani's candidacy is based on his name ID and tough stance on terrorism. But as the economic situation worsens, he will need to play up his New York City role as Mr. Fix It. Some of his TV ads in New Hampshire highlighted the city's economic revival on his watch in the '90s; he should run those ads in Florida.
• Continue the charm offensive: Since Giuliani lost his front-runner crown, his campaign has become more media-friendly and accessible. Giuliani's getting more airtime now, something his campaign curtailed when he was the front-runner. The more he can stay in the spotlight, the more people will remember he's still in the race.

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• Go after Hillary Clinton: Giuliani got huge applause from Republicans when he went after Clinton, but he stopped doing it way before she lost in Iowa. He's gotten back on track, and every time he takes her on, he's throwing red meat to the party faithful.
• Play up his electability: Republicans want a winner, and they're not convinced that at least two of their current top-tier candidates (Romney or Mike Huckabee) could prevail this fall, especially in blue states like California and New York. Giuliani thinks he can, and he gains support when he plays this card.
• Feed off Florida: Giuliani has seemed more alive since he went South for the winter, playing to larger crowds and exerting more energy. He will need to keep the high intensity up for the next couple of weeks and start acting like someone who really wants the nomination rather than someone on a book tour.

• Work harder: Giuliani is starting to get a reputation as a nine-to-five campaigner. A lack of retail politicking in New Hampshire contributed to his poor showing there. Indeed, fleeing to the Sunshine State to dodge a month of hard-fought races in cold-winter states has raised questions about his work ethic. He'll need to do more than a few events a day in Florida to get the attention in so many media markets in one state.

Is he up to the challenge? We'll soon know.

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