Watching Tuesday's parallel campaign dramas

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON — By 9 p.m. Tuesday night, on one of the oddest days on the 2008 presidential election calendar, we had learned that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had won the Michigan primary.

At that moment, 2,000 miles away, the top three Democratic contenders — Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and former Sen. John Edwards — had just begun tangling in a televised two-hour debate airing on MSNBC TV.

It was a night at the political multiplex, with junkies running back and forth between theaters to watch two competing thrillers — "Wait Until Dark" and "Vertigo.”

But by 10 p.m., we’d learned that the Democratic debate would be neither a festival of incendiary rhetoric, nor an epic battle between rivals.

The striking number in Michigan
So while watching the Democrats’ mostly genteel sparring, the political junkie’s mind was irresistibly drawn to the Michigan vote, and the most striking number of the evening was this: About 870,000 people voted in Michigan's Republican primary.

Eight years ago, nearly 1.3 million people voted in the primary, in which Arizona Sen. John McCain beat George W. Bush. McCain got more than 650,000 of those votes; Tuesday, he got less that half that number.

The one-third decline in the Michigan GOP primary turnout since 2000 should be enough to give Republican strategists the chills.

People vote when they are angry, fearful or demanding a new leader or new policies.

In 1972, nearly 1.6 million ballots were cast in the state's Democratic primary. Anti-busing candidate Alabama Gov. George Wallace scored a landslide victory over liberals George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey.

Circumstances are different today than they were in 1972, but none of the GOP candidates has demonstrated the ability to rouse voters to the passion that generates huge voter turnouts. Michigan marked the third contest in row where GOP voter turnout was tepid.

A nine-point Romney win
Apart from the total vote, how convincing was Romney’s win?

It was pretty big, a 9 percentage point victory over McCain. It sets the stage for yet another round of hand-to-hand combat in South Carolina this Saturday, when the GOP holds its primary in the Palmetto State.

MSNBC Democratic debate Clinton responds to controversy Jan. 15: At the MSNBC debate in Las Vegas, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., responded to the controversy surrounding comments made by one of her supporters about Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. Obama addresses internet rumors Edwards on being the white, male candidate Clinton asks Obama a question Obama asks Edwards a question Edwards asks Obama a question

Michigan voters do not register by party, so some Democrats and independents joined the fray on the Republican side. According to exit poll interviews, about one-third of those who voted in the GOP primary were Democrats and independents.

Romney performed 14 percentage points better among self-identified Republicans — a good harbinger for him for coming primaries in Arizona, California, Colorado and New York, which are closed, meaning only Republicans can vote in those contests.

But among independent voters, McCain got 36 percent to Romney’s 29 percent. Independents made up an estimated one-quarter of the Republican electorate on Tuesday, according to exit poll interviews.

McCain can use this showing among independents as an argument that he’s more likely than Romney or Mike Huckabee to expand the GOP base and thus beat the Democrats in November.

Romney beat McCain two-to-one among Michigan voters who saw illegal immigration as the biggest problem facing nation; but he also did much better than McCain among voters who saw the economy as the most serious problem. Among such voters, 41 percent backed Romney, and 29 percent backed McCain.

Among voters who called themselves conservatives, an estimated 56 percent of the GOP electorate, Romney crushed McCain, 40 percent to 22 percent.

MORE FROM

Section Front

Obama campaign head gets big book deal Officials turn down Franken request Joe the Plumber to become war correspondent Franken lead at 49 with absentees left to count Minn. Senate winner won't be known in 2008 First Read: 'Twas the seventh week of recount... Franken opens first lead in Minn. Senate race Mom of Palin daughter's boyfriend arrested Minn. court weighs rejected absentee ballots Minnesota panel reviews disputed ballots Section Front   Add headlines to your news reader: