Obama giving Clinton a race in her backyard

Mr. Obama’s victory in Iowa and his second-place finish in New Hampshire have put a number of black leaders in the awkward position of opposing a black candidate for president.

Many black elected officials in New York have already endorsed Mrs. Clinton, but they may find that their followers, who constitute as much as 25 percent of New York’s primary electorate, are flocking to Mr. Obama if he wins South Carolina, political analysts said.

A few prominent black leaders remain on the fence. Among those leaders is the Rev. Al Sharpton. On Friday, in one sign of how vigorously he is being courted, Bill Clinton called into Mr. Sharpton’s nationally syndicated radio talk show to explain his use of the phrase “fairy tale” in a critique of the Obama campaign this week. The description angered many blacks, but Mr. Clinton said he was referring only to Mr. Obama’s position on Iraq, not his candidacy.

Neither campaign has made firm decisions yet about television advertising and public appearances in the state, which has 5.3 million enrolled Democrats.

Their ranks could be swollen by last-minute registration efforts. Unregistered New Yorkers had until Friday to enroll in order to be eligible to vote Feb. 5.

The New York City Board of Elections said more than 13,000 forms had been filed in the last week alone. In New Hampshire, Mr. Obama fared better among first-time primary voters.

Clinton camp energized
On primary day, 232 of New York’s 281 convention delegates will be in play, 151 of them elected by Congressional district and allotted in proportion to the candidate’s total. Some delegate slots are reserved for public officials and party leaders, and others are assigned by party officials. Representative Anthony D. Weiner, a Clinton supporter who represents parts of Brooklyn and Queens, said the campaign dynamics have energized the Clinton camp, too.

“It’s now clear that her home state is going to play an important role in making her president,” he said. “People are more excited about that than concerned.”

He said he had not discerned any shift to Mr. Obama among Clinton supporters.

At least one has shifted the other way. Neil Barsky, a Manhattan hedge-fund manager who raised money last year for Mr. Obama, said he now favored Mrs. Clinton. “I believe Hillary, while potentially less of a transformational candidate, would make an excellent president and is our best chance of winning,” he said.

New York’s presidential primaries have usually been held too late to make much difference, although in June 1972 George S. McGovern’s near sweep in New York virtually sealed his nomination.

Two other New York primaries were pivotal, though.

In April 1988, Michael S. Dukakis won a bruising primary campaign in New York over Al Gore and Jesse Jackson, who polled an impressive 37 percent.

In April 1992, New York Democrats squelched the presidential aspirations of Paul E. Tsongas and Edmund G. Brown Jr., who had run as an anti-establishment candidate, and all but virtually sealed Bill Clinton’s presidential nomination.

In his victory speech, Mr. Clinton declared, “Tonight, every person who voted in the Democratic primary voted for change.”

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