Bloomberg gathering data to gauge support

For Bloomberg's campaigns in 2001 and 2005, he spent more than $155 million, and in both cases, poured millions into the development of his voter database.

The work that Schoen did in 2001 came as Republicans were also developing a similar concept, known nationally during the 2004 presidential election as "Voter Vault."

Now, mictrotargeting has now become a crucial tool for political campaigns.

The obstacles to a third-party victory are enormous, but Schoen argues they are not insurmountable.

Previous independent bids such as those by George Wallace, John Anderson and H. Ross Perot faced problems of money, organization and ballot access that someone like Bloomberg could more easily overcome.

Estimated worth: $11.5 billion or more
The 65-year-old mayor already has the money — Fortune magazine estimates his worth in the neighborhood of $11.5 billion, and others have speculated it could be double that.

Next comes organization, and Bloomberg operatives believe they could recruit a million volunteers within a month of launching a campaign, aided by information gleaned from the voter database.

A major task for the volunteer force would be doing the groundwork to get him on the ballot — a tricky process that differs wildly by state.

The first deadline to get on a state ballot is May 12 in Texas, and petitioners can only begin collecting signatures after the state's March 4 major party primary.

So far, the surprise outcomes of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have added urgency and strength to the Bloomberg operation, Schoen said.

"The uncertainty in the nominating process on both sides makes it more likely that Mike Bloomberg will explore a candidacy," he said.

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