So now what?

The other wild card is Bill Richardson. Does he take the Hispanic vote from Clinton or does he fail to get the threshold and see his vote help her?

One other point on Clinton. Just because she won New Hampshire doesn't mean she's completely erased some of her core issues, including the lack of a consistent message, the difficulty getting out of her husband's shadow, and a staff who may have trust issues after they stabbed each other in the back.

Obama's path to the nomination is easier if he sweeps Nevada and South Carolina. He can still win this if he splits the two states, but it won't be easy. A sweep probably makes him the slight favorite on Feb. 5.

Obama's chief challenges over the next month are to prove competency on the experience front, to figure out how to woo more women from Clinton, and to get aggressive against her without going negative.

Six weeks ago if you told the Obama folks they'd win Iowa by eight and lose New Hampshire by three, they would have taken that in a heartbeat.

If the Democratic picture is foggy, then the Republican side is downright murky. There appear to be four plausible nominees and a wild card (Fred Thompson) who could help determine who wins South Carolina.

The guy in the driver's seat, at least temporarily is John McCain because the next two states are places he can easily get 40 percent. In a multi-candidate race that is more than enough to win both states. That's the good news.

The bad news is it's going to be hard for McCain to sustain a loss in either state, though I'd argue if he wins Michigan, South Carolina isn't a must win as long as the candidate who does wins it is Mike Huckabee.

Cartoons New Hampshire surprise Our cartoonists take a look at the New Hampshire primaries.

If McCain sweeps Michigan and South Carolina, he will be the nominee. The GOP establishment is ready to rally behind him, they just want to make sure he's ready to be a frontrunner again. The guy's never been a good frontrunner.

Huckabee's path is similar to McCain's. A sweep of the next two and he'll probably be the nominee (though he'll not have much established support) and he'll probably be forced to go through a longer process to "earn" it, a la Bill Clinton in '92.

Huckabee can't win this nomination by just winning states with large pockets of evangelicals, that's why Michigan is so fascinating. It's a state that can be susceptible to a populist message. If there ever was an opportunity for Huckabee to prove that his "Main Street vs. Wall Street" theme can be a good one for the party, it's Michigan.

Mitt Romney's alive today only because the donor he needs to convince every morning is the one he stares at while shaving. But for the rest of the GOP to take his two "silver medals" in Iowa and New Hampshire seriously, Michigan (an almost-home state) is a must-win, period.  Romney's in the Ricky Bobby zone now - if he ain’t first in Michigan, he's last. The way this GOP fight is going, I half expect Romney to win, continuing the chaos.

Rudy Giuliani's campaign swears all is calm. But as I write that phrase, I am picturing Kevin Bacon's character in the movie "Animal House," screaming "remain calm" while the folks start running over him. No candidate needs continued chaos more. The last thing he needs is for McCain to get on a roll. A Romney-Huckabee split in Michigan and South Carolina is Giuliani's ideal scenario going into Florida. Obviously, there's no Plan B for Rudy if he loses Florida.

So there you have it. Get your conventional wisdom now before it goes stale, because the pace of this race is so breakneck that today's wisdom is tomorrow's ridiculous commentary. Enjoy the ride. It's going to be great.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

MORE FROM DECISION '08

Decision '08 Section Front

Obama calls for 90-day foreclosure moratorium A house divided: Spouses split over candidates Poll: Obama up by 10 points Johnston speaks on Bristol Palin and baby How McCain, Obama will change abortion policy NYT: Who's behind Obama whispers? Undecided traveler? 5 questions to ask before voting New Yorker: Beyond the Palin World Blog: Vietnamese back McCain Obama-supporting nun, 106, shocked by fame Decision '08 Section Front   Add Decision '08 headlines to your news reader: