‘Atonement,’ ‘Juno’ will win movie Globes

Alonso Duralde Film critic

In a year when the Golden Globes has lost its main raison d’être — a glossy TV show with lots of glamorous celebrities hitting the champagne — trying to guess the actual winners almost seems like an afterthought. But for those who breathlessly read the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s goat entrails in the hopes of predicting how the Oscars will go next month, the Golden Globes remains a major event. So let’s break down the film categories, shall we?

Best motion picture, drama
And the nominees are: “American Gangster,” “Atonement,” “Eastern Promises,” “The Great Debaters,” “Michael Clayton,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood”
Who should win: The powerful “Blood,” which promises to be a movie that will be analyzed, argued over, picked at and defended for years to come.
What will win: The Globes seem to be leaning towards the tony, overstuffed “Atonement” this year, although “No Country” could always be a dark horse.
What’s missing: The gorgeous and riveting “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.”

Best motion picture, musical or comedy
And the nominees are: “Across the Universe,” “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “Hairspray,” “Juno,” “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Who should win: Either “Hairspray” or “Sweeney Todd,” both of which brought the modern screen musical to new highs.
Who will win: The recent hubbub over “Juno” may result in a win for the scrappy indie.
Who’s missing: The deliriously romantic and tune-filled “Once.”

Best performance by an actor in a motion picture, drama

Lilo/sipa / Sipa Press

And the nominees are: George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”; James McAvoy, “Atonement”; Viggo Mortensen, “Eastern Promises”; Denzel Washington, “American Gangster”
Who should win: Day-Lewis, Day-Lewis, Day-Lewis. He goes to 11, yes, but he does it brilliantly.
Who will win: It seems to be Clooney’s to lose, but the HFPA has been more enthusiastic about “American Gangster” than most, so Washington’s certainly a strong possibility.
Who’s missing: Gordon Pinsent, who provides perfect balance with Julie Christie in “Away from Her” as the husband she forgets she has. And while three nominations might have seemed excessive, Philip Seymour Hoffman’s stunning work in “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” was equal to his roles in “The Savages” and “Charlie Wilson’s War.”

Best performance by an actress in a motion picture, drama

Gautam Singh / AP

And the nominees are: Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”; Julie Christie, “Away from Her”; Jodie Foster, “The Brave One”; Angelina Jolie, “A Mighty Heart”; Keira Knightley, “Atonement”
Who should win: Christie’s performance as a woman whose Alzheimer’s diagnosis brings the flaws of her marriage to the surface was the year’s most indelible performance. But the reclusive Christie hasn’t done any awards campaigning, so she hasn’t got a chance.
Who will win: Not only is Jolie the current It Girl, but she’s also actually playing a foreign journalist in this war-on-terror drama, so she’s just gotta be the favorite.
Who’s missing: Carice van Houten, whose character in Paul Verhoeven’s powerful World War II drama “Black Book” had no sentimentality whatsoever in her drive to survive.

Best performance by an actor, musical or comedy

Leah Gallo / Leah Gallo / DreamWorks Pictures

And the nominees are: Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”; Ryan Gosling, “Lars and the Real Girl”; Tom Hanks, “Charlie Wilson’s War”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Savages”; John C. Reilly, “Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story”
Who should win: Hoffman’s slow-burn frustration with his ailing father, his neurotic sister, and his own personal baggage was a joy to watch.
Who will win: Depp and Hanks are both masters at finessing the press, but I suspect that Depp’s success as a singer (and of those complicated Sondheim songs, no less) will give him the edge.
Who’s missing: Seth Rogen, for being both lovable and wincingly flawed in the charming “Knocked Up.”

Best performance by an actress, musical or comedy

Barry Wetcher / Disney via AP

And the nominees are: Amy Adams, “Enchanted”; Nikki Blonsky, “Hairspray”; Helena Bonham-Carter, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”; Marion Cotillard, “La Vie en Rose”; Ellen Page, “Juno”
Who should win: If the Globes deserve kudos for anything in the awards race, it’s that they acknowledge comedy and musical performances, which so often get no love from the Oscars. And as such, Amy Adams deserves the trophy since the appeal of “Enchanted” comes almost solely from her wide-eyed, sprightly portrayal of a misplaced cartoon princess.
Who will win: Tough call — Adams certainly has her fans, although Page could benefit from the 11^th hour surge of “Juno” support. The fact that Cotillard gives the meatiest performance of the group (she could have easily gone in the dramatic category) could give her a boost as well.
Who’s missing: Laura Linney, firing on all cylinders as a would-be playwright in “The Savages,” and Anna Faris, for elevating stoner comedy to a whole new level in Gregg Araki’s “Smiley Face.”

Best performance by an actress in a supporting role
And the nominees are: Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”; Julia Roberts, “Charlie Wilson’s War”; Saoirse Ronan, “Atonement”; Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”; Tilda Swinton, “Michael Clayton”
Who should win: Blanchett and Ryan deserve the raves they’ve been getting as, respectively, an aspect of Bob Dylan’s 1960s persona and the world’s worst mother, Swinton’s subtle turn as a corrupt corporate attorney in way over her head in “Michael Clayton” was another great performance from this stellar performer. Swinton has a way of trying on an outfit or clearing her throat that tells you everything you need to know about the character.
Who will win: Blanchett’s a double-nominee this year, and she’s got a much better chance of scoring in this category than for her lead performance in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” But since one can never underestimate the HFPA’s tendency to equate fame with talent, don’t count out Julia Roberts.
Who’s missing: Not a lot of people saw the movie, but Margo Martindale’s performance in the final vignette of “Paris, je t’aime” (directed by Alexander Payne), is a precise, heartbreaking piece of acting.

Best performance by an actor in a supporting role

David James / AP

And the nominees are: Casey Affleck, “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”; Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Charlie Wilson’s War”; John Travolta, “Hairspray”; Tom Wilkinson, “Michael Clayton”
Who should win: Affleck’s performance as a celebrity stalker of the Old West was revelatory and exhilarating. He probably has the most screen time of these nominees as well, since he’s arguably a lead in the film. But really, everyone in this group is deserving … except Travolta, who’s singularly odd choices and bizarre now-I’m-fat makeup made him stand out among the “Hairspray” ensemble, and not in a good way.
Who will win: Travolta, who’s doing an awards season full-court press in Los Angeles, with lots of hyped appearances with the film. But Hoffman is another double nominee, so he’s certainly in the running.
Who’s missing: Either Paul Dano, who went toe-to-toe with Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” without getting obliterated, or Michael Cera, whose hangdog charm played a major role in the success of both “Superbad” and “Juno.”

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