'Quirky' Iowa an accurate predictor?

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

DES MOINES, Iowa - Here’s a quick morning-after-Iowa quiz:  Who won the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 1988 and what is he doing now?

Here’s a clue: he never won the Democratic presidential nomination.

The answer: It's former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, who is now a lobbyist and consultant for the Washington, D.C. firm DLA Piper.

Gephardt won Iowa in 1988, but in later primaries, he ultimately ran out of money and split the centrist Democratic vote with a young Tennessee senator named Al Gore. Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis would go on to win the nomination. 

Another question: who were the winners, both Republican and Democratic, in the Iowa caucuses in 2000?

Familiar names: Gore and George W. Bush.

The lesson: the Iowa outcome doesn’t predict the ultimate winner of the parties’ presidential nominations — except when it does.

And there’s no way of knowing now, the morning after the caucuses, whether last night’s Iowa outcome will or won’t be a harbinger of who’ll get each party’s nomination.

The Iowa grim reaper
The contest in Iowa often weeds out the weak and underfunded. Gephardt, ran again in 2004 here in Iowa, placed fourth and had to quit the race.

Video How much will Iowa hurt Clinton? Jan. 4: Barack Obama defeats former first lady Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses. What now for Hillary? NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. Today show

Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut both invested much time and money in this state, but failed to win broad support and were forced to give up after their sad showings here.

That fact that so few voters in one state can have the power to kill off a candidacy of a senator who has served for 30 years is rather freakish and fickle.

But Iowans defend their caucus process as a high-minded exercise of democracy by ordinary citizens.

And if you went to one of the precinct caucuses last night in Iowa, you might agree with that.

“This is real democracy. I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Philippe Remarque, an admiring correspondent from the Netherlands newspaper De Volkskrant, as he observed Democrats in West Des Moines precinct 115 last night.

A heated debate over Iraq
Remarque and I watched a heated debate between Barack Obama supporter Robert Parks and Nick Manna, a foot soldier for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, as each tried to win over some Biden supporters.

The Biden-ites were up for grabs because Biden had not attained the party-mandated 15 percent "threshold" in that precinct.

Video Edwards on the Iowa outcome Jan. 4: John Edwards talks on NBC's Today show about being “the little guy,” the Democratic runner-up and what he has planned for next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. Today show

“There are only two candidates who can end the war, Biden and Richardson,” Manna told the Biden supporters, hoping to pull them over to Richardson.

“No, no, no, no! All of them can end the war, it’s just a matter of when and how they do it and how well they do,” insisted Parks.

Back and forth it went as 20 Biden backers listened, knowing they were in a position to help get Richardson a delegate from this precinct if they shifted to him (in the end, they scattered, some going to Obama, some to Hillary Clinton, and others to John Edwards).

Manna was about 40 years younger than Parks, who is a polished political pro and an elected city council member in West Des Moines. But Manna didn’t back down an inch.

The Manna-Parks impromptu debate was far more genuine and more participatory than sitting in one’s living room, watching a series of political ads on television.

It was a flesh-and-blood example of political brawling, as bracing and healthy as a Vermont town hall meeting called over the school bond issue.

'Just pay attention'
“I think is a very good process because it gives the opportunity for everyone to participate and it’s easily understood if people just pay attention,” said Parks as voters filed out of the auditorium at the Indian Hills Junior High School at the end of the caucus.

“It’s not what I would call sound-bite material. It requires some thinking, it requires some attention, and people here in Iowa give it the attention that it needs and deserves.”

The caucuses serve as a real focus group, allowing observers to hear complaints from Democratic voters about presidential contenders they don't like.

Edwards backer James Flanagan told the Biden-ites, “Hillary is owned by the defense contractors; she’s a hawk.”

It’s not just right-wing columnists and pundits who have a deep animosity toward Clinton; it is a significant percentage of Democratic primary voters, too. What does that portend if she does end up winning the nomination?

(The Republican caucus process is different since it is simple straightforward straw vote measuring support for each candidate,)

MORE FROM

Section Front

Obama campaign head gets big book deal Officials turn down Franken request Joe the Plumber to become war correspondent Franken lead at 49 with absentees left to count Minn. Senate winner won't be known in 2008 First Read: 'Twas the seventh week of recount... Franken opens first lead in Minn. Senate race Mom of Palin daughter's boyfriend arrested Minn. court weighs rejected absentee ballots Minnesota panel reviews disputed ballots Section Front   Add headlines to your news reader: