Hiring may not be so great in 2008

Eve Tahmincioglu • Profile • E-mail

Gary, a laid-off mechanic for a major U.S. airline who is biding his time as a casino worker, has been unable to find a job that pays him more than $8 to $10 an hour.

“I have over 25 years as a mechanic with electrical, hydraulic, plumbing, carpentries, and some robotics,” he says, adding that he’s “a hard worker.”

Robert from the Kansas City area, who also did not want his full name used, is a licensed attorney who spent two years as a temporary employee reviewing contracts but was unable to find a permanent legal gig. He’s now working as a purchasing manager for a small company.

“I would like to work as an attorney, probably for a smaller – midsize law firm, or in the corporate sector as in-house counsel,” he explains.

As the New Year begins, many employees across the country are hoping 2008 will be the year they find their dream job, or at least one that pays a decent salary.

But like both Gary and Robert, many workers are getting a bit pessimistic.

According to the recruiting firm Hudson’s employment index many workers are indeed glum when it comes to their outlook for the New Year:

• Twenty-one percent of the workers polled believe their job prospects will be worse in the coming year, up from 15 percent last year.
• Thirty percent say it is not at all likely they will be looking for a new job next year, compared to 26 percent one year ago.
• Forty-six percent feel their organizations’ leaders are expecting the economy to get worse next year, and only 22 percent say executives think the economy is getting better.
• Fifty-seven percent of the workers polled said they expected to earn significantly or a little bit more in 2007, down from 63 percent in 2006.

And I hate to say it, folks, there might be something to these workers’ negative vibes.

Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation’s unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5 percent.

The jobs outlook for 2008 looks anything but rosy. Unfortunately, economists, employment reports and staffing experts are pointing to a tough jobs outlook, at least for the first half of this year.

“Most of us believe the first half of the year will be a slow growth period,” says Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute. “Every forecast I’ve seen is for unemployment to creep above 5 percent by the middle of next year.”

“It will be a less than hospitable job creation environment,” he notes.

Some parts of the country, he adds, will be harder hit than others, especially those whacked by the housing bubble including Michigan, California, Florida and Arizona.

In another sign things might be tougher for job seekers, The Conference Board reported in late December that help-wanted advertising declined in all nine regions of the United States with the steepest dips in the Pacific, Mountain and West North Central regions.

“The forward indicators of the labor market activity offer little hope that the labor market will be spared,” says Ken Goldstein, labor economist for The Conference Board. “It’s not good news when more people are signing up for unemployment checks, and the average length of unemployment is lengthening.”

There will be some industries that will suffer more than others. Anything real estate and housing related is expected to take a hit as far as jobs, and that includes everything from mortgage companies to home appliance manufacturers.

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