‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Jan. 6, 2008

MR. RUSSERT:  Clinton advisers acknowledge that this photograph from the night of the Iowa caucuses—and we’ll put it on the screen for our viewers—is an indication of that whole generational change.  With Madeleine Albright, Wesley Clark and Bill Clinton...

MR. MURPHY:  Yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...is—did that photograph capture?

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, it looks like a wax museum.  It’s horrible.  I, I think they made a big mistake on election night in the Clinton campaign.  Part of the reason Barack Obama is doing so well is he’s running not only against a chronology of Hillary Clinton but the style.  You know, the old-school politics, the calculation, the, somewhat, the manipulation.  And she got up there in third place in Iowa and gave a victory speech, which I think voters at home said, “Oh, that’s more of the same old stuff.” If she’d gone up there and said, “You know, I lost.  I got beat, I learned something and I’m going to change some things...”

MR. RUSSERT:  A friend of Hillary Clinton said to me if she had gone up to the podium and said, “So much for inevitability...”

MR. MURPHY:  Right, exactly.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...”you know, congratulations, Senator Obama.  I’ve been beaten.  I know what it’s like to be knocked down.  I’m coming back.”

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, then there’s a narrative of a comeback, and then there’s some authenticity to it, instead of this phony...

MR. McMAHON:  Yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  ...you know, I’m going to have to beat up on Mark Penn a little bit—this poll speak that she does, which I don’t even think is English, it hurts her and Obama...

MR. RUSSERT:  Roger Simon, the columnist, said that, you know, Hillary had been advised—Hillary Clinton had been advised by her deputy campaign manager, “Why don’t you bypass Iowa?  This is not your kind of state.” You look at John McCain, what he’s doing here in New Hampshire, could she have had that luxury, or is she too much of a well-known commodity and national candidate, she couldn’t have bypassed Iowa?

MR. McMAHON:  Well, I think at the point which they were about to make that decision, it was a little late in the process.  She probably should have made that decision early on, and she certainly could have gotten away with it.  I mean, there was a lot, there was a lot of hostility within the Democratic Party already about Iowa having as much influence as it did.

MR. MURPHY:  Mm-hmm.

MR. McMAHON:  If she had simply said, “I’m going to skip Iowa.  I’m going to make my stand in New Hampshire,” I think she would have gotten away with that because she’s a Clinton.  And, frankly, back in 1992, Bill Clinton did the same thing.  Wes Clark tried to do it in, in 2004, it didn’t work for Wes Clark.  It, it might have put her in a difficult spot, but...

MR. RUSSERT:  But Clinton had a native son, Tom Harkin, running.  A little bit different.

MR. McMAHON:  Clinton had a native son, Tom Harkin, running, but...

MR. MURPHY:  It’s just...

MR. McMAHON:  ...it seems to be working for the Republicans who are employing that strategy.  I mean, you know, it’s almost like you’ve got, you’ve got these guys who are, who are deciding to saddle up at different points in the race and they’re putting on their track shoes and poor Mitt Romney has to run around the track five times just to get to them.

MR. MURPHY:  The one problem for her, though, hard to be the inevitable candidate and not be in Iowa.  She tried the inevitable thing, big risk.  When you lose early, it’s, it’s real trouble.

MR. RUSSERT:  Bill Clinton, who’s been on the campaign trail very vigorously on her behalf, was asked at a town hall meeting here in New Hampshire, “Will—are you willing to change the game?  Are you willing to take away all the meanness out of politics?”

MR. MURPHY:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  And his—here’s his answer, and it’s quite interesting.  “I think we can change it as long as” we “you have access to information by people who are committed to judging everybody by the same set of rules and following the same set of rules.  According to the most recent media analysis, that’s not” what has “happened” here “so far, but yeah, I think it should be done.  Nobody would be happier to see all this go away than us.  But you can’t ask somebody who is at a breathtaking disadvantage in the information coming to the voters to ignore that disadvantage and basically agree to put bullets in their brains.” President Clinton exasperated at what he thinks is the media coverage of his wife’s campaign.

MR. McMAHON:  See, I think they’re exasperated with the results in Iowa.  If you look at what they did in Iowa, I mean, in all, in all candor here, there was an election, and they turned out 72,000 people or thereabouts, 30 percent of 240,000 for Hillary Clinton.  In any other year, at any other time that would have been a huge victory.  I think what you’re seeing in the Clinton campaign right now is a campaign that’s reeling.  They expected to win in Iowa.  They came to New Hampshire, they really didn’t have a plan B, they certainly didn’t have a plan B for a, for a margin like they saw in Iowa and for the momentum that Barack Obama’s getting right now.  It’s very, very difficult to break a wave like this.  They’ve got to figure out quickly how they’re going to do it and where they’re going to do it.  It doesn’t look like they’re going to do it here.  And if they don’t do it soon, they’re not going to do it at all.

MR. RUSSERT:  Last week we had Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee on MEET THE PRESS.  This week we had John McCain.  We invited Senator Clinton, she declined our invitation.  Doing very few media interviews.  I am told she might be doing “Access Hollywood” on Monday.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, I don’t understand it, because if she doesn’t grab this thing fast—and it’s not her fault, she’s just not what they’re looking for, but she’s making it worse with this kind of campaigning—she’s going to turn into Ed Muskie in a pantsuit and there’s no chance.  She has, I think, about 10 days, which means South Carolina, which is even harder for her.

MR. RUSSERT:  Here, here’s the calendar, Mike Murphy.  Let’s put it on the screen.  New Hampshire is this Tuesday, then Nevada.  That’s a caucus on January 19^th.  South Carolina on the 26^th.  Super Tuesday on February 5, that’s Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Kansas, Massachusetts, Jersey, New Mexico, New York and Oklahoma.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  Half those states are open, where independents can vote.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  The other half are closed.  Can Hillary Clinton afford to wait until super Tuesday without a victory?

MR. MURPHY:  I don’t believe it.  I’ll eat my hat if she can pull that off and give her a big salute.  This is what Rudy Giuliani’s been talking about on the Republican side.  “I’m going to lose for a long time, and then, like a panther, I’m going to spring forward and win at the end.” Nobody’s ever pulled this off because money follows buzz in politics, and if you start losing, you run out of money, you have no dollars for television.  Those February 5^th states, that’s half the country.  I—it’s a momentum game.  If you can’t start winning early, it’s very hard to restart.  No—people have tried it, never worked.  Maybe she’s the first.

MR. RUSSERT:  But if Hillary Clinton pulled an upset here, she’s back in the game.

MR. MURPHY:  She is totally back in this.  Like a steamroller.

MR. McMAHON:  Absolutely back in the game.  The other thing that’s going to happen is, do you know, the last poll in South Carolina had the race relatively even.  It had Hillary Clinton doing still reasonably well among African-Americans.  I think what you’re going to see now is there are a lot of African-Americans out there who are waiting to see if Barack Obama could get white votes.  And Iowa, which is 96 percent white, New Hampshire, is going to prove that he can get white votes.  And I think what you’re going to see pretty soon, Mike said, you know, he’s going to be in the new friends business.  It’s not just going to be new friends in Washington, it’s going to be the African-American community.  And if that solidifies at 85, 90 percent for Barack Obama, it’s going to be very, very, very difficult.

MR. RUSSERT:  Particularly in those February 5^th Southern primaries.

MR. McMAHON:  Particularly in those Southern primaries.

MR. RUSSERT:  What would happen if Obama won the first four, was perceived as the front-runner.  And African-Americans, who are very loyal to the Democratic Party, would they then go to Hillary Clinton and say, “Our time has come. You’ve lost four in a row to Barack Obama”?

MR. McMAHON:  Yeah, well, I think the, I think the Clinton campaign is in a very difficult position because, you know, Bill Clinton likes to think of himself as the first black president, and he’s often referred to that way. And so here’s a guy who comes along who could be the first real black president.  And the question for the Clintons, ultimately, might be, “Do we want to be the people who stand in the way of that?  Do we want to be the people who take him down?  And if we do, what does that mean for the general election?” Because you’re tearing the hearts out of so many people who have put all their hopes and aspirations in this man, and he’s become a movement and an idea more than a candidate.  And you can’t just take him out like you would take out another candidate.

MR. MURPHY:  I really believe if he wins here and South Carolina, she can’t stop him.  He can stop himself with a horrible mistake, but she’s going to be out of money and the support will be eroding, and it—it’ll turn in on itself. That’s the problem with being the front-runner.  Every time you read those stories about “you can’t lose,” the guillotine blade goes a little higher. And if you start losing, it’s a tough business.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let’s go to the Republicans.  Here’s the latest.  I shared it with Senator McCain.  Thirty-two, McCain; 24, Romney; Huckabee there at 12; Rudy Giuliani, 9; and Ron Paul at 8.

Look at these.  Same internals.  McCain on Wednesday/Thursday was ahead 29, 25, 12; Friday, the day after the Iowa caucuses, the day that Mitt Romney lost to Mike Huckabee, he—McCain spikes to 35; Romney, 24; Huckabee, no bounce whatsoever here.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, it’s funny.  I thought Huckabee would get a little bounce here.  And I think maybe over—after the debate last night he might have a little, but clearly this ain’t Iowa.  You know, it, Huckabee, for all his success, was kind of born on second base in Iowa with those pre-built Christian voters that are a big part of the electorate.  Lot fewer of them here, so a lot less natural Huckabee base.

MR. RUSSERT:  In Iowa, evangelical Christians were 60 percent of the vote. He carried those 2-to-1.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  The 40 percent nonevangelical, he only got 14 percent of those.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let’s go back to the poll, break down Republicans, independents.  There’s McCain, ahead of Romney, 28-26; of Huckabee, amongst Republicans.  Independents, 45 percent of the electorate here, look at that. McCain, 50; Romney, 18; Huckabee, 6.  McCain and Obama splitting the independent vote here in New Hampshire.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.

MR. McMAHON:  I think, I think what you have here is there’s a, there’s a desire for authenticity.  There’s a desire for, for somebody who, who people think will tell it like it is, regardless of whether it’s good or it’s bad. For whatever reason, Barack Obama seems to have captured that on the Democratic side.  John McCain’s always had it.  I mean, he’s the guy who was for Iraq, stayed for Iraq, was for the surge, didn’t think the surge was enough, is willing to stay for 100 years.  You can disagree with a guy like that, but you can’t think he’s a man without a core and a principle.  And, and, you know, I think he’s really benefiting from his authenticity.

MR. RUSSERT:  Back to the poll.  Men/women, there—here it is, a gender gap. McCain with men, 40 to 21; women, very close, Mitt Romney ahead, 28, 26. Let’s go to the favorable/unfavorable.  McCain, 68 to 13; Romney, 59, 24; Huckabee, 36, 35.  Unknown a little high, but that’s a pretty high negative. Rudy Giuliani, 48, 21.  Huckabee, that’s a problem in this state.

MR. McMAHON:  Yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, it is.  You know, this state doesn’t like Southerners that much.  I was here working for Lamar in the old days against Phil Graham.

MR. RUSSERT:  Lamar Alexander.

MR. MURPHY:  He had problems here.

MR. RUSSERT:  From Tennessee.

MR. MURPHY:  You know, obviously the president did.  There’s something, the bigger the belt buckle, the more trouble you get in New Hampshire.  And, and Huckabee, though he’s good, is a Sunbelt guy.

MR. RUSSERT:  Rudy Giuliani, Steve McMahon, a favorable, 48; unfavorable, 21. Terrorism, taxes, the two key issues here.  This was a state designed for Rudy Giuliani, and he’s pretty much pulled out.

MR. McMAHON:  He’s pretty much pulled out, and it’s going to be interesting. You know, he’s, he’s the guy who’s lacing up his track shoes in the, in the third round of a four round—four lap race.  And, and I can’t imagine, once somebody gets the momentum—and on the Republican side, as you pointed out a few weeks ago, chaos favors Rudy Giuliani.  Chaos is his only hope.  And he’s got to continue to hope that the, that the results coming out of these states are going to be mixed.  But if John McCain wins here, goes to Michigan, wins there, the McCain people think if he wins here, he will win in Michigan.  They believe he’ll have a nice, nice wind at his back in South Carolina.

MR. RUSSERT:  But then it would be Huckabee vs.  McCain in South Carolina.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.  That’ll be a race.

MR. RUSSERT:  Lot of Southern Baptists.

MR. MURPHY:  That’ll be a race.

MR. RUSSERT:  Brings back memories of 2000, Bush vs.  McCain, Mike Murphy.

MR. MURPHY:  Indeed.

MR. RUSSERT:  And you were there.

MR. MURPHY:  I was there.  And I think John will have extra Kevlar on this time to go down there and really fight.  I think, I think that could be the scenario.  I see Tuesday’s vote here connected to next Tuesday’s vote in Michigan.  If you are a candidate after a week from Tuesday in Michigan, you haven’t won a big one, I think you’re in big trouble.  And so it’ll be interesting what happens here where I think McCain has the energy and the lead, but there is a, there is a Romney shot here if the independents who generally make up one out of four voters in a Republican primary all go to Obama, then that race gets a little closer.  That’s Romney’s shot.

MR. RUSSERT:  But if McCain wins here, they go to Michigan, Romney, that’s his native state.  His dad was governor.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, and money.  You know, Romney has got more television and everything, so that’s Romney’s last stand, I think, if he loses here.  Then, you know, Romney can stay in awhile, he’s got resources, but if he loses two in a row, I think it’s big trouble.

MR. RUSSERT:  Everyone seemed to be going after Mitt Romney on the Republican side last night.

MR. MURPHY:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let’s—here’s an exchange from that debate.  Let’s watch.

(Videotape)

FMR. GOV. ROMNEY:  I also supported the surge from the very beginning.  But look, you know, Governor...

SEN. McCAIN:  I’m way older.

GOV. ROMNEY:  ...don’t try and characterize my, my position.  Of course this war has never been...

SEN. McCAIN:  Which one?

I just want to say to Governor Romney, we disagree on a lot of issues, but I agree, you are the candidate of change.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Now, you know Mitt Romney, you know John McCain.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, you can feel the love.  I’m sitting there watching it with, like, all these conflicting feelings.  One, I’ve seen them both at their best.  I like them both; I hate to see them fight.  On the other hand, I’m thinking wow, that’d be a pretty good ticket.  And then I’m thinking oh, yeah, like, you know, you’d need Bill Richardson to work that deal out.

MR. RUSSERT:  Why are they all ganging up on Mitt Romney?

MR. McMAHON:  Well, I think, I think, you know, they—for the same reason that four years ago everybody ganged up on Howard Dean.  Fundamentally, they don’t think he belongs there.  They think it’s some kind of fluke of nature that he got there.  They don’t think he believes what he says.  They think he’s a, they think he’s a poll-driven campaigner and a poll-driven candidate. And they, they just, they don’t seem to like him at all, you’re absolutely right.

MR. MURPHY:  It’s also...

MR. RUSSERT:  Maybe if Romney loses here, he should give a scream speech.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.

MR. McMAHON:  Worked pretty well.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, a guaranteed winner.  And part of the problem is I think Romney did so well early by having the dollars for television.  He’s a very good candidate.  And I think the other guys who are out sucking up the donors all day just hated that.  And so—and Romney just had success, and that’s something the, the rivals don’t like.  But we’ll see what happens.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mike Huckabee said he’s not George Bush running for a third term, he’s running for his own term.  Smart to distance himself from George Bush?

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, within reason.  I think all of—none of them can be the third term, and yet none of them can be totally all the way out there.  I think, in some ways, Huckabee occasionally goes too far.  But you’ve got to, you’ve got to—you know, the buck stops with the new president.  That’s one of the first things you have to communicate to the voters.  I thought all of them handled that pretty well.

MR. RUSSERT:  They all were asked about Barack Obama, and they all said that they would run—put him to the left and try to run to the center, portraying Barack Obama as a liberal.  But Mike Huckabee went out of his way to seem to try to embrace at least the phenomenon of Barack Obama.  Here is Mike Huckabee on Obama.  Let’s watch.

(Videotape)

FMR. GOV. HUCKABEE:  I think we also ought to recognize that what Senator Obama has done is to touch at the core of something Americans want.  They are so tired of everything being horizontal—left, right, liberal, conservative, Democrat, Republican.  They’re looking for vertical leadership that leads up, not down.  He has excited a lot of voters in this country.  Let’s pay respect for that.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Smart politics?

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.  He’s got a great ear for voter speak.  The vertical-horizontal thing’s a little softism, but he gets it.  And we’ve got to respect what’s happening with Obama and get into that business on the Republican side, or we’re going to be in trouble if he’s the nominee.

MR. McMAHON:  You could, you could see why the Clintons must be frustrated, because here you’ve got everybody on the Republican stage basically praising Barack Obama and what he’s done for politics.  I mean, I think, I think Mike Huckabee’s exactly right, he has done something unique and remarkable not just because he’s an incredibly gifted orator, but because he’s taken politics up to the next level.  I mean, for a long time political campaigns were all about where you stood on individual issues, and people thought if you aggregated enough agreement with voters on issues that you were going to win the election.  And I think that’s kind of, to some degree, the campaign the Clintons are running.  Barack Obama has taken it up another level and basically said if you want a, “If you want a change...

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.

MR. McMAHON:  ...”a clean change, a clean break with the past, if you want to go in a different direction, if you believe that anything’s possible in this country because we’re a great country, I need your help.”

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.

MR. McMAHON:  It’s an empowering message, it’s a positive message, it’s aspirational, and, frankly, it’s the one thing that Mike Huckabee, I think, is doing really well.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, there’s a...

MR. McMAHON:  He’s a hopeful optimist about America.

MR. MURPHY:  ...very clear message out there.  If you’re—either party—if you’re part of the same old politics this year, you’re going to be toast.

MR. RUSSERT:  You guys will hate to hear this, but Mike Huckabee did it without political consultants.

MR. MURPHY:  I know.  We’ve got to do something about that.

MR. McMAHON:  What?  What was he thinking?

MR. MURPHY:  We’ve got a union!

MR. RUSSERT:  All right, Murphy.  You called Obama six months ago.

MR. MURPHY:  People were laughing at me.  Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  Give me the nominees of the party.

MR. MURPHY:  Oh, man.  Obama.

MR. RUSSERT:  Yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  And the Republican one’s a lot looser, and it could go—it could still get unraveled.  But if you put a gun to my head in the hot seat, I’d have to say John S.  McCain.

MR. RUSSERT:  And would you go back to work for him?

MR. MURPHY:  Well, that’ll be discussed.  I got a great life in Hollywood right now, and I’m lazy.

MR. RUSSERT:  Ah, the door...

MR. MURPHY:  (Unintelligible).

MR. RUSSERT:  ...the door’s open.

MR. MURPHY:  Either he or Romney, if they’re a nominee, I’d be proud to be associated with them.

MR. RUSSERT:  Steve?

MR. McMAHON:  Well, I think right now you have to give the edge to Obama.  I mean, the Clinton...

MR. RUSSERT:  And the Republican side?

MR. McMAHON:  John McCain.

MR. RUSSERT:  Wow.

MR. MURPHY:  I’m not certain.  I think the Republican is looser...

MR. RUSSERT:  McMahon and Murphy.  I understand.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  Thank you for your views.  We’re going to have you back.  We’ll be right back with more after this.

(Announcements)

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