Skip navigation
sponsored by 

Time to separate contenders from pretenders

As conference play begins, Pac-10 looks strongest, but Big 12 dangerous

David Padgett
Timothy D. Easley / AP
David Padgett has returned to Louisville's lineup, giving coach Rick Pitino renewed hope as conference play begins, writes msnbc.com contributor Ken Davis.
Special feature
UCLA v Memphis
Madness cheer
Check out cheerleaders from the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
ASK THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERT
By Ken Davis
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 11:34 p.m. ET Jan. 2, 2008

Ken Davis
Maybe there are more good teams. Maybe the early season tournaments are scheduling better competition. Maybe all those talented young players, who seem much more mature than their freshman classification, are making a difference. Or maybe more coaches are paying attention to that strength-of-schedule mandate from the NCAA tournament selection committee. We’d like to think that is the reason. Maybe the coaches are finally paying attention.

Whatever the reason, the first two months of the college basketball season have generated some terrific games.

For once, the non-conference season has given us a pretty good gauge of where things stand right now. North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas look like serious Final Four contenders. UCLA, Michigan State, Georgetown, Tennessee and Washington State might be worthy of the fourth piece in that equation — but they’ve got some work to do.

Story continues below ↓
advertisement

Kentucky has disappointed. Injuries have created havoc in Louisville. Butler is back in the Top 25 business and Duke is Duke again. Dayton and Rhode Island are big surprises and drawing attention to the Atlantic 10 Conference.

It has been fun so far. Now it’s time for conference play to begin. Time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Before we know it, Selection Sunday will upon us. But first, here are five thoughts as we head into conference action.

1. The Big 12 is much better than expected. It’s not just Kansas and the other 11, the way many preseason publications portrayed the conference race before the season. In fact, by the end of the season, the Big 12 might build a convincing argument that it is the top conference.

Texas was undefeated until running into Michigan State and Wisconsin over a seven-day period. Texas A&M is rolling along at 13-1 without Billy Gillispie. And Oklahoma, with freshman Blake Griffin leading the way, has defeated Arkansas, Gonzaga and West Virginia in consecutive games.

  Mike Miller's college hoops blog
The Big 12 has been ranked first or second in the RPI every week this season and with seven teams in the top 80, this promises to be a bumpy ride for everyone — maybe even the Jayhawks.

2.  The Pac-10 wasn’t a fluke last season. Last year at this time we declared the Pac-10 the toughest conference in the nation. We said it wasn’t even close and it wasn’t. This time around, the race should be just as intense — even if the boys on the left coast stand No. 4 in the conference RPI right now.

UCLA remains the team to beat. When the Bruins are healthy, they appear to be Final Four material for the third consecutive year. Washington State is one of six remaining undefeated teams and much better than many prognosticators indicated before the season.

Stanford and Arizona may be next in line but we really need the conference games to distinguish between Arizona State, Cal, Oregon and USC. Watch out for the Trojans, especially in those L.A. city battles with the Bruins. The Pac-10 might produce seven — or eight — NCAA tournament teams.

3. The Atlantic 10 is hot in 2008. Dayton’s big victory over Pittsburgh confirmed that. The Flyers also defeated Louisville and are off to their best start since 1955-56.

But the Flyers aren’t alone. Duquesne is off to its best start since 1979-80. Massachusetts is 10-2, the best start since the Minutemen went 26-0 on the way to the Final Four in 1995-96. And Rhode Island is 13-1. You’ve got to go back to 1946-47 to find a better beginning for the Rams.

Six teams in the conference have at least eight wins. Xavier (9-3) has wins over Indiana, Creighton and Cincinnati. Let’s go out on a limb and say four teams from the A-10 are headed to the NCAA Tournament.

4. Who is going to challenge Georgetown in the Big East? Injuries are threatening the conference race before it even begins.

Pittsburgh looked like a Final Four team when it defeated Duke at Madison Square Garden just before Christmas. Now the Panthers have lost starters Mike Cook and Levance Fields to injuries that could end their seasons.  You’ve got to feel for coach Jamie Dixon.

Slide show
Michael Cuddyer, A.J. Pierzynski
  Week in Sports Pictures
Football frenzy, surfing sensation, misery for Cubs fans, and more.

more photos

Of course, if you are Rick Pitino or Jim Boeheim, you are searching for sympathy as well. Pitino has David Padgett and Juan Palacios back in the Louisville lineup but who knows when Derrick Caracter will get another suspension? Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf are out for Syracuse.

Providence has been disappointing and UConn is stuck in neutral. At this moment, things are so strange in the Big East that Cincinnati is alone in first place with a 1-0 record. The Bearcats beat Louisville in Freedom Hall.

Marquette could be the Big East survivor in 2008. But keep an eye on Villanova.

5.  The ACC seems rather ordinary. Or should that be top heavy?

North Carolina is the best team in the country and perhaps the deepest.  I still believe that even after the injury to Bobby Frasor that will cost him the remainder of the season. Duke has been fun to watch so far this season. Mike Krzyzewski has the most depth he has ever had and the Blue Devils will be in every ACC game. This will be a dangerous team in March.


Sponsored links