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Joe Biden
If he tops Richardson for fourth, look for Biden to stick around for a while (possibly through South Carolina) but if he fails to gain traction in Iowa, how long does he stay around, particularly if he's being left out of debates?

Chris Dodd
Connecticut's senior senator is not interested in embarrassing himself with multiple losses. Hard to imagine him sticking around longer if he indeed ends up in sixth (or even seventh).

Bill Richardson
If crowd sizes are any indication, then Richardson better watch his fourth-place back as Biden appears to be consistently drawing bigger crowds. But Richardson seems intent on sticking through the Nevada caucus since he's made such a big deal about having a Western Democratic presence in this race. But finishing fifth in both Iowa and New Hampshire is going to make it hard for him to keep going.

Mike Huckabee

• A win: Spending as little as he has, a win will be seen as a tremendous upset, even if the victory is by a point or two. But for an Iowa victory to truly serve as a booster for him in New Hampshire and beyond, Huckabee needs a fairly substantial win (say 5-plus points); a  narrow victory will be seen as nothing more than Huckabee succeeding by rallying Christian conservatives. But a substantial victory could be seen as evidence that he can tap into both the Christian vote and the so-called Bubba/blue-collar Republican voters who respond to populist anti-Wall Street pitches.
• Any other showing: Huckabee is like George Mason University in the NCAA tournament a couple of years ago; Huckabee is a great story until he loses, and then he disappears from the country's consciousness. For Huckabee, there's no Plan B ... well, other than securing a television talk show contract.

Mitt Romney

• A win: The one gift Mike Huckabee has brought to Mitt Romney is making Iowa relevant on the GOP side. A few months ago, when it appeared McCain, Giuliani and Thompson were all going to skip Iowa in order to make Romney's victories (in both the straw poll and the caucuses) a hollow win. Now, with Huckabee in the perceived lead, a Romney victory will have meaning again. He can't afford to go 0-2 in Iowa and New Hampshire. The campaign swears they can still win in Michigan if they lose the first two, but that seems like a stretch right now. We'll see.
• A loss: Romney could possibly survive a narrow loss to Huckabee if he spins it by saying Huckabee cobbled together a victory simply on the backs of Christian conservatives. But then the pressure would be on him to win in New Hampshire. Obviously, if Romney loses by five points or more, he could end up in a tailspin. That's the true nightmare scenario, and no amount of money could rescue him. Just ask Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm.

John McCain
Nobody plays the "national press expectations game" better than McCain, though Huckabee is giving the master a run for his money. Anything north of 15 percent Thursday will get played up big by the media and lead to front-runner coverage once he sets foot in New Hampshire again. The only bad news for McCain right now is that there is an expectation that he could finish third. If he doesn't, then maybe many in the media will question whether the comeback is real or Memorex, circa 2000 (only those over 35 will get this reference).

Rudy Giuliani
The good news for Hizzoner is that he only has to defeat one candidate. The bad news? He may not do it. Giuliani's camp is blowing off Iowa, I get that, but can he really afford to finish behind Ron Paul? Remember, Paul was the first candidate to get into a verbal exchange with Giuliani at an early debate, when Rudy was riding high and Paul was considered the GOP's mascot candidate. So finishing behind him would bring Giuliani negative symbolism that the national press could use to pummel Giuliani for his late-state strategy.

Fred Thompson
He seems to be developing expectations for himself so that if he doesn't finish in, say, second or a close third, he can withdraw with dignity. If that's the case, the first question we'll have in the media is, how soon will it be before he endorses McCain?

So there's your caucus guide to the likely Friday morning spins, depending on the scenarios. What we can't wait for is the totally unexpected: a candidate surging from nowhere (McCain or Biden) or a turnout that shatters even the most optimistic outlooks or a concession speech gaffe that drowns out everything else (think "The Scream").

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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