Pilot error rate ‘significantly declined’

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Overall mishap rate didn't decline
While the rate of pilot error-related mishaps declined 40 percent from 1983 to 2002, the overall mishap rate didn’t decline at all during the 20 years, said Baker.

Some accidents involved errors made by air traffic control or ground crews. The Johns Hopkins study found that mishaps while aircraft were motionless on the ground or being pushed back from the gate more than doubled, from a rate of 2.5 to 6 mishaps in every 10 million departures.

"More likely these have been caused by errors while driving ground vehicles or by ground crews during push-back," said Baker. "The increase in mishaps while aircraft are not moving may require special attention. We need to be taking a very careful look" at these kinds of accidents.

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Greater ramp congestion
The researchers think the rate of ground mishaps may have increased because airport ramps have become more congested.

In analyzing the NTSB data for the first five years of the study, from 1983 through 1987, the researchers "saw nothing involving push-back," said Baker.

The lack of data probably wasn't due to the NTSB not recording ground-crew accidents at the time: A Johns Hopkins researcher performing a parallel study on ground-crew injuries from 1983 onwards didn't find a significant increase in the injury rate after 1987.

In recent years, the Airports Council International and the International Air Transport Association have pinpointed inadequate training of drivers of airport ramp vehicles as a particular problem.

However, U.S. airline safety trends are encouraging for travelers. NTSB data show that the overall rate of fatal U.S. airline crashes fell dramatically in the 20 years from 1987 to 2006, Baker noted.

In the decade from 1987 to 1996, the fatal accident rate was six accidents per 10 million departures. However, in the decade from 1997 to 2006, the rate fell to two fatal accidents per 10 million departures.

The new Johns Hopkins pilot-error study formed part of a larger project that — funded in part by the National Institute on Aging — focused on age-associated changes in commercial pilots. A study that formed an earlier part of the project found pilot error did not increase with pilot age — an interesting finding, given the recent passing of legislation by the U.S. Congress to increase the retirement age of commercial pilots from 60 to 65.

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