Iowa: Chasing candidates and campaigns

Howard Fineman • E-mail

WASHINGTON - If Hillary Clinton ends up surviving Iowa, I will know the reason: her husband. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the other night, I saw a tired but still feisty Bill Clinton give the most (actually the first) convincing recitation I’d ever heard of his wife’s career accomplishments -– you know, the achievements that supposedly make her the “steady hand” the country now needs.

By the time Bill was done, Hillary sounded like a cross between Margaret Mead, Mother Teresa and Lyndon Johnson. The 900 or so Democrats at the Hawkeye Downs race track seemed to go home happy.

On a pit stop here between stretches in Iowa, I can tell you this: things look different on a snowy I-80 than they do on the East Coast and inside the Beltway.

The pundits, including me, scoffed at the former president’s role in the campaign, on the theory that he brings too many bad associations with him to the trail. But the fact is, the man could sell ice cones to the Inuit, and Democrats in Iowa still adore the guy.

Lots of other things look different when you’re driving around the state chasing candidates and campaigns, as I have done in recent days, and as I will be doing again soon. Here are a few:

• OBAMA’S “FIRE”
  Barack Obama may be riding a generational wave of change. Often it feels just like that. But while he draws large crowds, I am never quite sure that they leave his events as “fired up” as when they enter. That’s how it seemed to me the other night in Coralville. The crowd was big and adoring in a somewhat abstract way. But when he went into his final “Fired up/Ready to Go” chant, the mostly upscale and well-educated voters in the motel ballroom kept the lid on. Part of that is just Iowa: they are not the most demonstrative people. But it’s something else, too. Perhaps the IDEA of Obama (a new beginning; an historical figure or racial progress; a soothing message to the world) is too hard for the man himself to match.
  
• THE HUCKABEE CHRISTMAS AD
  You know the ad... the one in which, horror of horrors, Mike Huckabee wears a red sweater, mentions Jesus and wishes everybody a Merry Christmas. Back East, folks were hysterical; in Iowa, especially but not exclusively among Republicans, the ad was seen as a nice, homey, appropriate touch. In Iowa, they still say “Merry Christmas” to each other for the most part, even on the radio, and the national press reaction played into Huck’s hands.
  
• GOOD TIMES
  John Edwards has set the pace, and dictated much of the tone, of the Democratic race -– a tough, populist, anti-corporate message. Perhaps he can win on the strength of it. His crowds are good, too, and more of the “fired up” variety. He’s got a lot of union organizers straight out of the old-school, shouting slogans through megaphones made of rolled up posters. But I remain skeptical, for one reason: these are for the most part good times in Iowa. If you listen to WHO radio, the legendary, 50,000-watt clear-channel station that covers the state, you know that corn and soybean prices are at an all time high. Farmers are flush, and so are a lot of other people. If Edwards wins in the face of that, it’s a huge signal about the future of economic fear.
  
• SOCIAL DYNAMICS
  On the Democratic side, what matters will be the intricate, local dynamics of each of the 1,700 individual caucuses.  By now you junkies know how this works; my point is the outcome could well be decided by the savvy and determination of the precinct leaders for each candidate. There may be a lot of loose change available on the second go round of presidential preference votes: votes available in the many places where Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson do not “make threshold” the first time. Obama has attracted a young crew of smart and savvy kids, many from other states. They are charming and diligent –- the sort who do a good job on their term papers. But how far have they penetrated into the hearts of the little towns and suburban neighborhoods where the race will be won or lost?
  
• IOWANS
  People grouse about their exaggerated role. There is that professor bEck east who tried to quantify it: Iowans had 20 times the power of anyone else. A better system, in my view, would be a lottery to change the starting two states every four years, instead of the Iowa/new Hampshire tango. But here we are. And when you spend time in Iowa, and I have spent a lot of it over the years, you realize how prepared for it they are. The state has the highest high school test scores and college attendance rates, and there is something about the mixture of Quaker, Scandinavian and Yankee history that makes them take it all so seriously. Pundits complain about how “white” Iowa is, which is true. But if he can win there, Obama will have gotten a seal of approval that he could wear all the way to the White House next year.

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