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Rest up for playoffs? No clear-cut answer

But no matter what a coach does, he'll probably be second-guessed

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ASK THE NFL EXPERT
By Dan Pompei
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 1:41 p.m. ET Dec. 19, 2007

Dan Pompei
The December debate is raging once more — and I'm not talking about the validity of Santa Claus. The issue is whether or not a team that has clinched a playoff spot should play to win.

There is not a prevailing opinion on the subject. On the one side are the Marv Levys and the Tony Dungys of the NFL who believe it's more prudent to go into the playoffs with a rested, healthy team. On the other side are the Bill Belichicks who believe in going full bore and playing regulars for the sake of momentum.

Who is wrong? Everyone who loses. Considering 11 of 12 postseason teams will lose at some point, there is a pretty good chance that a coach or two will be second guessed either for not resting his regulars in meaningless regular season games, or for not trying hard enough to win meaningless regular season games.

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Really, it is one of those issues that can only make a coach look foolish. No matter his decision, he's wrong if he doesn't win the Super Bowl. And if he does win the Super Bowl, well, he probably was going to win it anyway. "Everything is scrutinized," Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio says. "And everybody has their opinion. The bottom line is when you lose then people figure there is something wrong with your planning."

What is the right way to do it? Well, the right way can vary based on the team in question and the individual circumstances it is facing. But the overriding goal during meaningless games late in the year always should be to prepare the team to win in the playoffs. Whether that is achieved through playing scrubs or acting as if each game is the Super Bowl depends on the team.

In most cases, trying to get players fresh and healthy makes the most sense. So let's say Joseph Addai is feeling worn out. His production has dipped. He has a slight muscle pull and a deep bruise. Why wouldn't Dungy have him sit out a game or two, or play him sparingly?

On the other hand, resting a perfectly healthy star like, let's say Tom Brady, just to make sure he doesn't get hurt, makes little sense. If Brady is feeling good, Belichick can't operate out of fear. Football players play football, and the risk always is assumed. It can be dangerous driving on the expressway too, but Belichick need not put out a dictate that all of his star players need to stay off I-93.

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Some will argue that sitting players for a couple of games will lead to rust. There is merit to the argument. But I'd rather risk having a rusty team than a banged up one. Rust might not happen, and even if it does it might not have a major impact. But you know playing athletes who are injured is almost certainly going to result in diminished performance.

Losing momentum is another risk coaches take by not going all out. But momentum is overrated. Momentum is created moving forward; not sustained looking backwards.

The Bills wouldn't have won those four Super Bowls if Levy had played to win meaningless games down the stretch. But it is possible they might have never made it to one or more if he didn't allow injured players to heal up late in the regular season.

Every coach has to look at each situation uniquely. He shouldn't have a blanket philosophy that covers every team and every individual.

"I think you take it on a case-by-case basis," Del Rio said. "You have to do what's best for your team. It depends on the state of your team."


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