Researchers aim to predict the unpredictable

‘There are no rules’
It’s one thing to move a queen on the chessboard, however, and quite another to move security forces in an unstable part of the world. “In the situations that we deal with, there are no rules,” Rozenblit said. In the real world, “winning” also could mean creating a stable environment where multiple opposing sides all gain something or maintaining a truce that would lead to a penalty if one side disturbs the status quo.

Rozenblit said his participation in the project was motivated in part by observing the instability in Kosovo and Somalia during the 1990s, when the co-existence of competing ethnic, criminal and other factions thwarted attempts by U.S. military and U.N. peacekeepers to quell the violence and chaos. “The nature of conflict has changed — we are not operating in the classical ‘us versus them’ environments,” he said.

Rozenblit, Ten Eyck and their colleagues have since borrowed algorithms from the fields of mathematics, genetics and economics to help make sense of courses of actions that might appear bizarre or defy logic to most people but that ultimately serve a purpose. Genetic development models, for example, seek to explain how groups or individuals mutate in response to a changing environment to maximize their fitness.

Similarly, co-evolution supposes that an individual’s actions are geared toward claiming “king of the hill” status for themselves or a larger group. Other individuals could adapt by observing the winning strategy and adopting their own game plan to boost their self-interests. Eventually, though, the multiple glory seekers might reach some sort of compromise or equilibrium so that everyone benefits a bit. No one would reign as "king of the hill," but everyone could at least claim their own small reward.

Finding the best payoff
Game theory invokes what are known as zero-sum games that don’t reward anyone — like repeated tic-tac-toe stalemates between equally matched players. As with co-evolution, establishing some sort of equilibrium won’t maximize an individual’s success, but it could provide the best payoff for everyone. Cell phone providers and airline carriers often settle on a similar amount for equivalent plans or flights, respectively. Charging more would mean a loss of business to their competitors, while charging less would cut into their profits.

Nichole Argo, a principal investigator with the Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism Studies at Tufts University, said she considers the sheer magnitude of ATRAP’s data-analyzing power less impressive than the breadth of the project’s approach toward understanding conflicts such as terrorism and civil war. Instead of collecting vast amounts of data, Argo said, the real trick is gathering the most relevant bits. “Science’s problem tends to be asking the right questions,” she said.

In that vein, she said she was pleased to see the University of Arizona researchers gathering information that might fit competing theories. For example, Argo said that new psychology and social neuroscience research supports a co-evolutionary perspective as a better explanation for terrorism than traditional game theory, in part because it prioritizes individuals’ attachments to their social groups and recognizes how their motivations may change accordingly. An openness to testing data within those and other frameworks, she said, “is probably where they’re going to get the biggest bang for their buck.”

Rather than identify all possible links and patterns, ATRAP’s Ten Eyck said the project would allow people to corroborate their hunches and seek out more information. Future versions of the program will even have the ability to detect intentional deception by enemy factions or forces.

One key application may be in conducting “What if?” exercises and virtual disaster training within emergency response centers. The system is also designed for real-time situations that require swift data processing and has benefited from the advances in parallel computing that are allowing more computers to simultaneously tackle a given problem. The added speed could prove vital for military commanders or disaster responders needing to quickly analyze and respond to reams of incoming data.

In post-Katrina New Orleans, a volatile mix of criminal gangs, volunteers, police, hospital staff, the military, the media and residents all co-existed in a deteriorating environment. If the system lives up to its potential, ATRAP could one day be used by first responders and agencies such as FEMA to stabilize similar situations, maximize the chances for a quick recovery and perhaps help answer the most important question of all: “How do we prevent this from ever happening again?”

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