Writers strike may change Hollywood forever

At least one network is taking a look at imported programming, mulling how receptive U.S. viewers would be to shows lacking an American accent.

But upcoming broadcast schedules largely will be stuffed with reality shows — and not just blockbusters like Fox's "American Idol," or ABC's "Dancing with the Stars," which returns in March.

If the genre doesn't burn itself out, the programming balance could remain tilted toward reality even after the strike is settled.

Will viewers warm to "Dance Wars: Bruno vs. Carrie Ann," ABC's "Dancing" spinoff, or NBC's "American Gladiators" with Hulk Hogan — or just shrug and look beyond TV for fun?

Dozens of established writers are trying to take entertainment directly to consumers on the Internet and negotiating with venture capitalists for startup funding.

In a recent consumer survey, half of those polled said that they have or will seek more online entertainment because of the strike, according to Kelton Research and the Wi-Fi Alliance, which tests and certifies wireless products.

On average, those questioned said they already get nearly a third of their entertainment online, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

While that suggests a dangerous drain for TV, especially for broadcast networks long subjected to cable's theft of viewers, one analyst cautioned that such a view ignores the corporate context.

In the last protracted Hollywood strike, the 1988 walkout by the writers guild, networks saw viewers migrate to cable and stay there. This time around, broadcasters may be losing audience share to a sister company, not a competitor.

The Walt Disney Co., for instance, owns ABC as well as cable channels including ABC Family and Disney Channel, while General Electric-owned NBC's corporate family has CNBC and MSNBC. Media conglomerates also are staking out Internet turf: MySpace is a unit of News Corp., which owns Fox TV and, among other cable channels, Fox News Channel and Fox Sports Net.

Media companies "are managing a different business than they did" in the '80s, a multichannel and multimarket one, said David W. Rips, director of the media and entertainment practice at Deloitte Consulting.

Whatever the financial intricacies, consumers will make their way through them.

Chris Becker, 43, of Newport Beach, has a strike strategy in place: DVD rentals of dozens of movies he's been wanting to watch and season compilations of new network series.

"I try to be selective, but now's the opportunity to catch up," Becker said. "I'll probably see shows I hadn't seen before."

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