Economy emerging as key election issue

Edwards sought to trump Clinton with a seven-year moratorium on interest rates for borrowers with subprime mortgages and a requirement on lenders to offer concessions to try and avoid foreclosure. “We also need a national rescue fund to help these families,” he said, as well as new laws to crack down on predatory lending.

Whatever the impact on the political campaign, the spike in economic pessimism is dramatic.
Republican pollster David Winston’s frequent surveys show the electorate was split almost evenly on the future of the economy through the first half of the year. Beginning in late summer, though, the percentage of those saying it was headed on the wrong track took a jump. By October, 63 percent said the economy was moving on the wrong track, compared with 32 percent who said it was headed in the right direction.

Gallup, the polling organization, reported that 78 percent of Americans surveyed in November said the economy is getting worse. Only 13 percent said they expect improvement, a disparity that the organization called “the most negative responses” since it began asking the question in 1991.

The widely watched Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has plummeted in recent months, and Lynn Franco, the organization’s director of consumer research, said it is not clear whether the trend will quickly reverse itself.

Two recent polls found the economy has supplanted the war in Iraq as the No. 1 issue in the campaign, although that does not appear to be the case in early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

Still, concern about the economy is evident there, as well.

Margaret Fleming, a single retiree in Wolfeboro, N.H., said the economy is the issue that matters most to her. At 67, she said she has investments and her condo is paid for. Still, she added, “I’m concerned about the economy so I have enough money to live in the style I’m accustomed to.” Her candidate is Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Traditionally, a bad economy and the sour public mood that goes with it spell trouble for an incumbent in the White House. Pessimism in the run-up to the 1992 presidential election campaign was only marginally better than it is at present by Gallup’s numbers. President George H. W. Bush was turned out of office that fall by a Democrat, Bill Clinton, whose strategists made “It’s the economy, stupid,” both a reminder to themselves and a succinct slogan for the campaign.

Taylor said that Democrats “historically have had an advantage” on many domestic issues, including education, health care and retirement. It’s going to be incumbent on Republicans to figure out how to get ahead of it now before we’re in a general election campaign,” she said.

Brodnitz agreed that Democrats have an advantage. “If you ask people who they trust on economic issues Democrats do very well,” he said.

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