Boeing 787 still on track but not out of woods

The Dreamliner’s first flight was supposed to have already happened, and test flights should have been well under way by now. Boeing must now meet its key milestones — namely “power on” and successful flight — _ before its credibility can be fully restored, says analyst Scott Hamilton. “Only then will the aerospace community be able to sit back and let out its breath.”

The biggest question remains: Will Boeing’s supply chain be able to support a ramped-up production schedule? “They are not out of the woods by a long shot,’’ Hamilton says.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, however, that Boeing will meet its new first flight target and its first delivery to Japan's All Nippon Airlines next year.

Boeing announced its revised delivery schedule in October and later replaced the executive in charge of the 787 program with Pat Shanahan, who previously turned around a troubled missile defense program.

After two months of assessing the 787 program, which included several late-night meetings with managers, trips to suppliers abroad and after-hours sessions in Boeing’s 787 flight simulator, Shanahan expressed confidence in the program. He acknowledged, however, that the airplane is still a “bit” overweight and that “clearly, we have a lot of work to do.”

Boeing is suffering the consequences after underestimating how hard it would be to have  partners across the globe design and build major sections of the all-composite airplane.

Instead of designing and building the airplanes itself, as Boeing has done for 91 years, the company’s 787 plan calls for partners to ship mostly completed fuselage sections and other major structures already stuffed with wiring and other systems to Boeing facilities in Washington state. Boeing would then essentially snap together the airplane in as little as three days.

It is a revolutionary business model that Boeing officials still believe will rewrite the way commercial airplanes are built in the future. “This is truly a breakthrough in our industry,’’ Carson told reporters and analysts on the conference call.

The problem — compounded by parts shortages — was Boeing’s lack of vigilance in understanding its suppliers, their capabilities and challenges. Boeing was overly confident that its suppliers could meet their deadlines and work through any road blocks that arose.

“They trusted and didn’t verify,’’ Aboulafia says.

As a result, Boeing’s suppliers have been shipping the airplane sections to Boeing without the wiring and other crucial systems, requiring major rework on the factory floor.

“We warned Boeing for years that if they continued with their outsourcing they eventually would lose control of their product and become a hostage to their suppliers,’’ says Tom Wroblewski, president of Boeing’s largest union, Machinists District 751. “If our members had done the work in the first place, Boeing wouldn’t be in this mess.”

Analyst Aboulafia says Boeing is relearning a timeless lesson: “It’s better to pleasantly surprise than disappoint.”

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