For Israel, U.S. report on Iran adds a burden

Analysis

updated 9:17 p.m. ET Dec. 5, 2007

JERUSALEM - A U.S. intelligence assessment that Iran has stopped developing atomic weapons is putting a burden on the Jewish state, which has long relied on Washington to lead the international charge against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

With the U.S. now less likely to take military action, an increasingly nervous Israel might feel compelled to strike out on its own if it perceives a dangerous threat.

Israeli officials say their intelligence forces believe Iran is still working aggressively to build nuclear arms. The Islamic regime in Tehran is strongly opposed to Israel’s existence and frequently boasts of its ability to strike the Jewish state with long-range missiles.

“The situation can become tense if they (the Israelis) decided their red line has been crossed,” said David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector who now heads the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. “They may force a military confrontation.”

A summary made public Monday of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran concluded the Iranians suspended their attempt to build a nuclear weapon four years ago, leading to increased calls within the U.S. for a less confrontational approach to Tehran.

“This forces the Israelis to make a decision instead of being able to take some comfort that the U.S. would take action at some point,” said Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department’s Middle East Intelligence Office.

“With Israel, you can be sure they will be unwilling to tolerate as much risk as the U.S. ... because they can get hit,” he said.

Iran the biggest threat
Israel sees Iran as its greatest threat and maintains that country is aggressively pursuing a nuclear weapons program. It responded to the report with a mixture of skepticism and veiled irritation.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that despite Washington’s assessment, his own intelligence analysis indicates Iran is still trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

“We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the Earth, even if it is from our greatest friend,” Barak said.

Meeting with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on Wednesday, Israeli President Shimon Peres said many intelligence assessments around the world have later turned out to have been inaccurate, a statement from his office said.

He did not refer specifically to the flawed 2002 U.S. intelligence estimate of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.

Iran’s military said last month it had produced a new missile with a range of 1,200 miles capable of reaching Israel and U.S. bases across the Mideast.

Peres, who as Defense Ministry director general in the 1960s spearheaded the development of Israel’s own nuclear program, told Albright that Iran’s heavy investment in missiles could only be intended to deliver a nuclear payload.

“There is absolutely no justification for developing such missiles and equipping them with a conventional warhead,” he said.

Israel has never confirmed or denied possessing nuclear weapons, but it is widely believed to have a formidable atomic stockpile.

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