Romney's crunch time

Chuck Todd Political Director • Profile

WASHINGTON - No, this is not another piece about Mitt Romney and his religion.

His speech on Thursday will be a turning point for the campaign, but not because religion is the candidate’s biggest hurdle.

In fact, his faith may be the least of Romney’s problems.

Because the chattering press class and political elite got it so wrong with Howard Dean four years ago, his name is invoked all too often. It is used as an example of why folks shouldn't take Clinton's or Giuliani's national poll lead so seriously. Or why no one should assume Romney's or Obama's financial resources and early state gains are guarantees of future success.

After all, four years ago at this time Dean was seeing momentum go his way both in polling (although his lead was not big in any national or state survey) and money (astonishing numbers at the time).

I pity the first of the top tier who gets chased out with the "Dean" tag, since being "Dean" appears to be synonymous with having support that's a mile wide but only an inch deep.

Which brings me to Romney.

Plan B
It's not an exaggeration to say that every major candidate is at a cross roads, but Romney is a special case. More than any other major candidate, his path to the nomination is tied to an early state strategy.  Even Clinton and Obama seem to be attempting to come up with a Plan B if they don't sweep in the first two states.

So what is Romney’s Plan B? Lose Iowa and win New Hampshire? Well, then he can live to campaign another day. Michigan comes a week later and it’s a state he should do well in.

But lose both Iowa and New Hampshire? Suddenly his chances plummet.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March. 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 Dec. 19, 2007 Nov. 7, 2007 Oct. 3, 2007 Sept. 12, 2007 Aug. 1, 2007 June. 13, 2007 April. 25, 2007 March. 7, 2007 Jan. 22, 2007 Dec. 13, 2006 Oct. 18, 2006 Oct. 3, 2006 Sept. 13, 2006 July 26, 2006 June 14, 2006 April 24, 2006 March 15, 2006 Jan. 30, 2006

That’s why Dean isn't the analogy folks should use if Romney's campaign doesn't succeed. For Romney, the dubious comparative could be Phil Gramm.

Gramm is the former Texas senator who wowed the Republican establishment in '95-96 with his great fundraising. He used that money to build what some thought would be a juggernaut organization in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.

But the minute the spotlight came on, he melted and ended up out of the race by Iowa, after getting embarrassed by Pat Buchanan in the little-regarded Louisiana caucuses.

Video   Romney's faith a challenge Dec. 3: Polls say a significant number of Republicans won't vote for a Mormon, but Mitt Romney hopes to assuage their fears with a new speech. NBC's Ron Allen reports. Nightly News

To be fair, Romney is no Phil Gramm in the visual department (sorry Phil). In fact, one of Romney's greatest strengths is that he looks the part of a president (almost too much so).

'Too perfect'?
It’s something Romney’s opponents seem to enjoy using to attack him. Claims that he is trying to be “too perfect” is code for trying to be “too correct” when it comes to the Republican Party platform. Romney has a habit of having all of the conventional answers when it comes to proving he’s a Republican.

But there are some other Gramm comparisons that do fit.

Like Gramm, Romney appears to be buying an organization. Romney's campaign has been dogged by charges (mostly from opponents) of buying conservative love.

Buying an organization can have its benefits; conservative think tanks in Washington, D.C., have given Romney a pass on some key issues.

But when you have to buy an organization, resentment can build among folks who weren’t asked to join the party.

Giuliani, McCain, Thompson and Huckabee all seem to have one thing in common – beating up Romney. In which case it’s hard to imagine any of them chosing Romney as their 2^nd choice.

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