Capitol Hill tries to fathom Iran intelligence

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Members of Congress tried to figure out Tuesday how to respond to the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released Monday which said that “Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program” in 2003.

The previous NIE, in 2005, said Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons.”

On one level, the congressional reaction was hurt feelings and puzzlement that the Bush administration hadn’t given a heads-up to key players in Congress.

Armed Services Committee chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and Committee member Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., indicated by their comments that they felt crossed-up.

“I was on a show Sunday on CNN and made some comments about Iran which I believed were true and basically are true, but I would have made them more conditional, more qualified had I known there was change coming,” Levin told reporters.

If the spy agencies had known last month that a change was coming, they should have alerted him and other chairmen, Levin said.

Graham he was “perplexed" and "a lot confused” by the NIE change since 2005. “It makes no sense to me that (after) what I’ve been saying about my view of the Iranian nuclear program, no one said, ‘whoa, time out, wait a minute.’”

What will the next NIE say?
Just as this week’s NIE reversed the previous one, the next one could be a change from this one.

Levin said, “They [the Iranians] could change their intention, as assessed by the NIE, at any time.”

In other words, six months from now, the Tehran regime could decide to restart its nuclear weapons program.

What didn’t come through in the headlines was that there was plenty in the new NIE that said Iran could sooner or later build nuclear weapons.

And “later” could mean during the next president’s term.

According to the intelligence agencies:

• "Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."
• "We do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."
• "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU (highly enriched uranium) for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame."
• "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so…."
• "We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely…."

Democratic presidential contender Sen. Barack Obama mocked President Bush after the president said at his press conference Tuesday morning that “Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous, and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.”

”This administration and President Bush continue to not let facts get in the way of his ideology,” Obama said.

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