Poll: Romney leads N.H, ties Giuliani for S.C.

Romney wins more support than his rivals on immigration in Iowa and New Hampshire, but shares the lead on that issue in South Carolina with three other contenders. Most of the GOP candidates talk about how they would tighten U.S. borders and take other steps to deal with the nation's 12 million illegal immigrants. More Republicans in each of the three early states say immigrants threaten American customs than say they strengthen the country, the poll showed.

"I'm not saying round them up and ship them out, but we need at least to weed out the criminal element" among illegal immigrants, said Curt Ford, 53, a Romney supporter and small business owner from Conway, N.H.

McCain, the former Vietnam prisoner of war whose candidacy seemed nearly doomed last summer, is the most trusted on Iraq by Republicans in New Hampshire and is tied for the lead on the issue in Iowa and South Carolina. McCain has been a vocal supporter of President Bush's troop increase in Iraq and may be benefiting from recent reductions in casualties. Large majorities of Republicans in the three states think the U.S. military campaign is going well and favor keeping troops there until the violence has stabilized.

Giuliani, whose rise to national prominence was aided by his response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on his city, is viewed by Iowa and South Carolina Republicans as the best choice for protecting the country from terrorists. He shares that perception with McCain in New Hampshire.

The evangelical lobby

Chuck Burton / AP Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani speaks during an event in Greensboro, N.C., Monday, Dec. 3, 2007.

Huckabee's rise has been aided by white evangelical Protestants. They make up nearly two-thirds of his supporters in each of the three states — a larger proportion than any of the other candidates.

Yet evangelicals also illustrate how core GOP voters are divided.

Forty percent of evangelicals in Iowa support Huckabee, twice Romney's share. But the Arkansan's backing from that group drops to 24 percent in New Hampshire and 12 percent in South Carolina, where he divides their allegiance nearly evenly with Giuliani, McCain, Thompson and Romney.

Huckabee also exhibits significant weaknesses among non-evangelical Republicans. Only one in seven supports him in Iowa, and roughly one in 20 in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Other GOP blocs also show fissures. Conservatives and men are evenly split between Romney and Huckabee in Iowa; Romney dominates both groups in New Hampshire, and Thompson is stronger in South Carolina. Republicans who go to church weekly or more prefer Huckabee in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire and Thompson in South Carolina.

The telephone survey included interviews conducted Nov. 7-25 with 264 likely Republican voters in Iowa, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 7 percentage points; 446 likely GOP voters in New Hampshire, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 points, and 468 likely GOP voters in South Carolina, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 points.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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