Poll: Romney leads N.H, ties Giuliani for S.C.

updated 1:42 p.m. ET Dec. 4, 2007

WASHINGTON - Mitt Romney is Deb Bartholoma's man —for now.

"It varies from day to day," says the 53-year-old Republican from Timmonsville, S.C., where she is a county government official. "I'm listening to everybody."

That's typical of the uncertainty rampant in the three important early voting states in the struggle for the GOP presidential nomination. In-depth polling by The Associated Press and the nonpartisan Pew Research Center shows that in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, no one is a shoo-in.

Across the three states, tight battles are being waged for voters' trust on Iraq, immigration and other key Republican issues and for control of pivotal groups including conservatives, white evangelicals and men. And it is Romney, not national front-runner Rudy Giuliani, who is ahead in New Hampshire and fighting for the lead in Iowa and South Carolina — three very different races. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been surging lately in Iowa.

Underscoring the tumult so far, only 57 percent of Republicans in Iowa say they strongly support their favorite candidate. That figure is even lower in New Hampshire, 49 percent, and South Carolina, 44 percent, in an indication that many have yet to make up their minds for good.

The most "electable"
As for Giuliani, the former New York mayor is seen as the most electable candidate by Iowa and South Carolina Republicans and is tied with Romney in that category in New Hampshire. However, solid majorities in each state say that is less important than finding a candidate they agree with on the issues.

Further complicating Giuliani's chances, one-fifth of Iowa Republicans and more than one-tenth in New Hampshire and South Carolina say they cannot support him — a distaste only Arizona Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas approach. Giuliani is on his third marriage and has more moderate views than many Republicans on gays, guns and abortion.

Video Power shifts before Iowa race Dec. 3: With the Iowa primary a month away, which presidential candidates did the best last week in the Hardball Power Rankings? Hardball

"A guy you can't trust in his home and family, how can he be trusted to run a nation," Jesse Hill, 26, a pastor in Unionville, Iowa, said of Giuliani. Hill supports Huckabee.

Giuliani campaign officials have said that even without momentum-building victories in the earliest states, he can win the nomination by doing well later in Florida, New York, California and other big states.

According to the AP-Pew poll,

—In Iowa, where the Jan. 3 caucuses will provide the nation's first votes, Romney has 25 percent support among Republicans, Huckabee 24 percent, Giuliani 14 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 12 percent.

—In New Hampshire, Romney has 37 percent, Giuliani 19 percent and McCain 15 percent. The primary is Jan. 8.

—In South Carolina, where the poll shows voters are less focused on the race, Romney and Giuliani have 19 percent each, Thompson 18 percent, McCain 13 percent and Huckabee 10 percent. Republicans there vote Jan. 19.

The topsy-turvy Republican contest in the three early states contrasts with the less chaotic Democratic races. Though Iowa is up for grabs, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is a clearer front-runner than the GOP contenders and has stronger trust on her party's top two concerns, Iraq and health care. Democratic voters are also more committed to their candidates and have far less interest in immigration as an issue.

The Republican candidates' struggles to dominate on important GOP issues spotlight how unsettled the race is in the early states.

MORE FROM DECISION '08

Decision '08 Section Front

McCain's health plan looks beyond employers Obama 'puzzled' by Iraq remarks furor Analysis: McCain struggles to regain footing NYT: McCain battles the teleprompter Both left and right pile on Obama Obama opens door to altering his Iraq policy Brownstein: Candidates try to cross the great divide NYT: McCain camp struggles to find strategy Obama focuses on turning red states blue Newsweek: Bad news awaits the next president Decision '08 Section Front   Add Decision '08 headlines to your news reader: