‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Dec. 2, 2007

MR. RUSSERT:  Mike Huckabee is now the front-runner in Iowa at 29, up from 12 in October.  Mitt Romney’s at 24, down from 29 in October.  Rudy Giuliani at 13.  Fred Thompson at 9, down from 18.  I wanted to underscore that Mike Huckabee has spent $300,000 in Iowa.  Mitt Romney spent seven million, David Brody.

MR. BRODY:  Bang for your buck, Tim.  That’s called bang for your buck.  You know, but listen, the reality is, what turned this around for Mike Huckabee was in October at the Family Research Council Value Voters Summit.  That was in October, his numbers started skyrocketing starting in October and beyond. And—because what he did—I like to call that the “I’m one of you” speech because that’s exactly what he did.  He walked into that ballroom at the Hilton hotel and basically said, “Listen, I speak your language,” talking to the evangelicals.  But beyond that, he talked about his electability, and that was very important, and national security.

MR. RUSSERT:  Michele, you’re out in Iowa.  Are you hearing much about the Republicans?

MS. NORRIS:  I’m hearing a lot about the Republicans.  The person who’s not in Iowa right now, though, is Mike Huckabee, and that tells you something. That’s confidence.  Once those numbers started rising, he started leaving the state, feeling that he could actually leave the state to raise money elsewhere, and that says a lot.  You know, there, there—I’ve spent some time talking to evangelicals here.  And I, I spent some time with a, a Christian conservative pastor, and, and he’s just flummoxed.  He looks at the lot and he just—he, he can’t settle on any one of them.  They all have issues for him. And so, you know, Mike Huckabee is the one that they can settle on, but, for a number of people, they still look at that tax issue with Huckabee, and they’re still not comfortable there.  So there still may be some surprises.  But I think the most interesting thing, in that Des Moines Register poll, was when you move down, and when you see where McCain is at right now, down there with Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo.  And what you might see is an interesting thing, you know, as, in those last five weeks, Ron Paul starting to pick up, slowly pick up support, he may actually come in third here.

MR. RUSSERT:  And the tax issue with Huckabee is, as governor, he did raise some taxes, and there’s a widely-circulated tape of his speech he gave to the legislature by the Club for Growth which has him on the record on that.

After Iowa comes New Hampshire.  And let me pick up on what Michele was saying about John McCain.  This is the state McCain is trying to make his claim.  And look at this, it’s Romney, 29; Giuliani, 19; McCain, 21; Huckabee, 7; Ron Paul, 4; Thompson, 4 in one poll.  The other, 34, Romney; 20, Giuliani; 13, McCain; Huckabee, 7; Ron Paul, 8; Thompson, 2.  Some news this morning.  The Manchester Union Leader, the biggest paper in New Hampshire, Manchester Union Leader, New Hampshire Union Leader, endorsing John McCain.  This is what they said:  “What is most compelling about McCain is that his record, his character,” “his courage show him to be the most trustworthy, competent and conservative of all those seeking the nomination.  Simply put, McCain can be trusted to make informed decisions.” Back in 2000, that same paper endorsed Steve Forbes and said that John McCain was the most liberal guy on the Republican side.  So even Joe McQuaid has a capacity for growth, the editor.

After that, we go on to South Carolina.  Here’s the Republican now.  Look at this.  Thompson is at 15; Giuliani, 9; McCain, 11; Romney, 17; Huckabee, 13; Paul, 6; undecided, 28.  This is wide open.

MR. GREGORY:  I, I spoke to a prominent Republican who said that if you go Christmas ‘06 to Christmas ‘07, the field is more chaotic, more fluid than it was in Christmas 2006.

You, you show those polls, Tim, and a couple things leap out.  One is there’s different figures in every state.  And if you’re Rudy Giuliani, that’s exactly what you want.  You want this muddle in the early states, so he can bring in his February 5^th strategy and really, and really run the tables, since he’s not as strong in the early states.

MR. RUSSERT:  With big states:  Florida, California.

MR. GREGORY:  Right.  Where they think that he—he’ll do much, much better.

You talk about McCain, particularly in New Hampshire, and it’s interesting. His people believe that if—that on the—the ideological continuum he will fall in between Giuliani and Romney.  And so it puts him in a good place. Because if, if voters come off either of those candidates, they’re likely to go to him.  They hope a winning strategy there.

MR. RUSSERT:  Gene, a big week in the press for Rudy Giuliani, one that he really...

MR. ROBINSON:  Oh, yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...wouldn’t enjoy.

MR. ROBINSON:  Yes.  Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  Here’s how the New York tabloids played it up, and look at this:  “Doesn’t Add Up!” “Tryst Fund.” An analysis piece by Glen Johnson, the Associated Press, wrote it this way:  “Security billing case raises questions Giuliani has tried to avoid in campaign.  The revelation that security costs for Rudy Giuliani trysts with Judith Nathan were spread to obscure New York accounts exposes the former mayor to harsh questions his campaign wanted badly to avoid—about character, truthfulness and a penchant for secrecy. Conservatives who are already troubled by Giuliani’s support for abortion rights and gay rights have further reason to wonder about the thrice-married candidate’s morality.  Republicans seeking a candidate who can challenge” Democratic “Hillary Rodham Clinton on issues of integrity may feel betrayed.”

MR. ROBINSON:  I think you’d have to say the worst moment of the week was when Bernie Kerik came out and said, “Oh, it was just fine,” and, you know, in support of Giuliani.  That’s not what you want to have happen, you know.  You don’t want Bernie Kerik as your character witness, I think.

MR. BRODY:  And, and I think it’s all—it goes to the authenticity issue. Because Giuliani has said all the time on the campaign trail that this is what he’s about.  “I’m not going to lie to you, I’m a straight shooter.”

MR. RUSSERT:  “I’m not perfect.”

MR. BRODY:  “I’m not perfect.” But if this is a trickle, trickle, trickle story, and all of a sudden we’re talking about this in a month, then all of a sudden, you know, all bets are off on that argument.  And that could be the most problematic thing here.

MR. GREGORY:  Again, it becomes a practical argument as well.  In the general election, are evangelical voters who punished George Bush for his drunk driving record and sat home—are they going to do the same to Rudy Giuliani? Are women going to migrate toward a candidate who has an estranged relationship with his adult children?  These are questions that I think Republicans have to ask in the primary process as they look forward.

MR. RUSSERT:  And yet, Michele, Rudy Giuliani’s campaign believes that if Mike Huckabee beats Mitt Romney in Iowa, and Giuliani can come in a strong third, that will give him some momentum going into New Hampshire with a weakened Mitt Romney, and keep Giuliani’s hopes alive.

MS. NORRIS:  You know, months ago, people saying—were saying that Giuliani’s strategy was just crazy, that, you know, that he wasn’t spending enough time in Iowa, and the sort of three-point shot that he was hoping to make by surging late out of South Carolina, heading into that, you know, tsunami Tuesday on February 5^th was just nuts.  And now it looks like, you know, it may have actually worked for them.  If, if Huckabee does win in Iowa, that’s very, very good news for Giuliani.

But I want to reach back to something that David said, you know, whether or not evangelicals will sit home.  Giuliani has picked up a few key endorsements on, on the Christian right.  But you know, what, what we’re hearing here in Iowa that—is that they will sit home.  That in many cases their ties to the party are more based on issues than based on the candidates and based on the Republican label.  And if the Republican nominee is someone who supports civil unions, is someone who has supported abortion rights, they—they’re, they’re telling us that they’re perfectly willing to sit this one out.

MR. RUSSERT:  David Brody.

MR. BRODY:  I think what we’re going to see is how powerful this evangelical bloc is not just in Iowa, but in other states as well.  I mean, because at the end of the day, Huckabee’s riding this in Iowa.  But, from an economic conservative standpoint and a national security standpoint, he’s going to have to kind of merge those other two sides.  And so, you know, one thing that’s interesting with Huckabee—and you know, Ronald Reagan is mentioned a lot here.  Well, all the candidates want to invoke Reagan’s name.  Huckabee, from a communications standpoint, may be the closest thing to it.  I mean, he has a way—and this is part of why, why what we’re seeing in the poll numbers—he has a way of it resonating.  You know, it’s like in the South where your, you know, where your grandmother might say, “You look ugly in that dress, bless your heart.” You know, it’s one of those things where, you know, it, it sounds—you wonder how it sounds, but the—but he, he can sugar coat it a little bit to where it sounds pretty good at the end of the day.

MR. RUSSERT:  Not my mom.  She used to say, “That looks ugly.  Go change.”

MR. GREGORY:  Yeah, right.

MR. ROBINSON:  But, I mean, the debates really have helped Huckabee, I think, because he comes across so well...

MR. RUSSERT:  (Unintelligible)

MR. ROBINSON:  ...as opposed to Giuliani and Romney, who in the, in the YouTube debate...

MR. RUSSERT:  But now, here comes the scrutiny for Mike Huckabee.

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