‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Dec. 2, 2007

In the Suffolk University, it’s Clinton, 34; Obama, 22; Edwards, 15; Richardson, 9.  Hillary Clinton hopes to make that her firewall in any kind—if she loses Iowa, try to rebound New Hampshire.  If not, what happens? On to South Carolina, and look at these numbers:  Clinton, 19; Obama, 17; Edwards, 12; Richardson, 1; undecided, 49.  Clinton is down seven from August. Some of the other candidates are up a bit.  But the undecideds have gone up from 35 to 49.  And look at African-Americans.  They will count for half of the turnout at—in the primary in South Carolina.  Obama is now in the lead at 25; Clinton, 21; Edwards, 3; don’t know, 50 percent.

MR. ROBINSON:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  The favorite son of Orangeburg, South Carolina, tell us what’s going on.

MR. ROBINSON:  Well, people are taking another look at the race.  The, the kind of initial reaction was Clinton.  We know the Clintons.  There, there are questions about whether an African-American can really win the presidency. Can, can Barack Obama really win?  Come on now.  And, and who is he anyway? What, what does this guy have?  And now that, you know, Obama has been around, he is doing well in Iowa, leading in Iowa, people are taking another look at the race and saying, “Well, hold on there.  Let’s wait a minute.  Let’s wait until...”

MR. RUSSERT:  Gene, are you suggesting that if Obama won Iowa and because independents in New Hampshire decided to involve themselves in the Democrat primary, and he happened to win New Hampshire, he would then go in to South Carolina and black voters would say, “This may be the potential president, and we’re more willing to embrace him?”

MR. ROBINSON:  Well, I’ve always thought that Obama would do better in South Carolina than those early polls were suggesting.  Because my sense of, of people down there, just anecdotally, was there was a real willingness to, to take a look at him, a fondness for him, an admiration for him, but questions about electability and also the, the experience question, is he ready?

MR. RUSSERT:  But if he, if he lost Iowa and New Hampshire...

MR. ROBINSON:  If he lost Iowa and New Hampshire, why not go with Hillary Clinton.  But if he, if he won Iowa and New Hampshire, I would bet he wins South Carolina.

MR. GREGORY:  I also think there’s a dynamic here.  You know, all these Republicans go out and talk about that Hillary Clinton is the shoo-in, and then they, they all pile on her in a, in a debate context or out on the campaign trail.  I think in some ways that hurts her in this regard.  I think a lot of Democrats see that, and they’re reminded of the fact that—how, how polarizing she is and that these Republicans know how to run against her. They look at a Barack Obama, and they say, “Wow, he really is new on the scene.  He might be a little tougher to contend with.” I think that has some impact on a—on people thinking, “Is she really the one?”

MR. BRODY:  Also, in South Carolina, two other issues:  faith—you know, it’s South Carolina.  All of a sudden now, Barack Obama is going to make the church circuit run.  And you’re going to see that.  We haven’t really talked so much yet about Oprah, but here comes Oprah...

Offscreen Voice:  Yeah.

MR. BRODY:  ...December 8^th and 9^th down as—into Columbia.  I mean, there are two major intangibles right there.

MR. RUSSERT:  I want to get to that.  Let’s talk about things that you cannot predict that can happen in any campaign.  It’s a long five weeks away.  Look on Friday in New Hampshire, in Rochester, New Hampshire, this man went into Hillary Clinton’s headquarters.  There he is taking off some, thank God, fake explosives, surrendering to police.  Senator Clinton monitored the situation, flew to New Hampshire that night and made these comments:

(Videotape)

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY):  I also want to thank all of law enforcement.  We were in touch from the moment this began with local, county, state, federal law enforcement.  And I am so grateful to them for their response which brought this hostage situation to such a good ending.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Senator Clinton trying to show strength and experience in a difficult situation.

That same morning, Friday morning, where was Barack Obama?  Having breakfast with Mayor Mike Bloomberg, an independent thinking about running for president.  Obama trying to suggest change, independence.  The campaign being played out before our very eyes on events that really aren’t—are beyond the control of voters.

MR. GREGORY:  And, you know, this is what’s so important, I think, these moments that are spontaneous, that are unscripted.  So something horrible happens to the Clinton campaign, and it does—it showcases her ability to show strength, to act presidential, to act as, as a president would in a crisis and how she handles that.  And, and Barack Obama, again, playing to his strength. He understands that Mike Bloomberg is a power center for independent voters and ideas.

MR. RUSSERT:  You mentioned, David Brody, Oprah Winfrey.  Here is Oprah Winfrey greeting Barack Obama on her show in October.  He called her then “his girl.” She has now agreed to go to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina.

Michele Norris, what’s your sense?  Does the celebrity of Oprah Winfrey translate into political support for Barack Obama?

MS. NORRIS:  Well, you’ve got two celebrities at work here.  You’ve got Hillary Clinton’s husband, Bill Clinton, last night at the Brown Black Forum. When he entered the hall, it was like a rock star had walked into the auditorium.  People were standing up.  it was almost a stampede to try to get close to him.  So it’s almost like the Bill Clinton-Oprah Winfrey showdown.

The, the use of Oprah Winfrey in this state is particularly strategic.  She is—her program is the most watched program in the state of Iowa.  When you look closely at her viewership here, it’s women over 50.  And, you know, Iowa is a very conservative state.  There are a lot of stay-at-home moms; there are a lot of people who watch Oprah.  And when you look at Bill Clinton and Oprah Winfrey, both celebrities, but celebrities that touch people in very different ways.  Bill Clinton a former president; Oprah Winfrey someone that many voters, many people, many women in that key demographic look at and see as—almost as a friend.

MR. GREGORY:  And, of course, women over 50, that’s Hillary Clinton’s strength in Iowa.  That’s what she wants to be her strength.  She wants to get those women who have not caucused before to get out there.  Also, Oprah Winfrey—it’s not just about the women’s vote.  She touches women in a unique way, in an empowering way.  She can bring new people into the process.

MR. ROBINSON:  We, we just know a little bit about Oprah’s impact because the Pew Research Center actually did a poll in September asking what Oprah’s support for Obama would do.  And the findings, you know, they’re kind of half of this, half of that.  But they do suggest that her support helps Obama with Democrats in general, with women and with African-Americans.

MR. RUSSERT:  Bill Clinton, one of the best campaigners in the history of American politics, an asset to the Clinton campaign.  This week even members of her own—Hillary Clinton’s own campaign staff got upset.  He, he went out on the campaign trail and offered these comments about the Iraq war:

(Videotape)

FMR. PRES. CLINTON:  ...even though I approved of Afghanistan and opposed Iraq from the beginning...

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Other campaigns couldn’t wait to put out this comment from back in May of 2003:  “I” support the president—“supported the president when he asked the Congress for authority to stand up against weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.” The president’s comments got a lot of play across the country, David.

MR. BRODY:  Yeah, and I think a couple of things went on here.  Obviously, Bill Clinton, anytime he’s above the fold in a Washington Post or The New York Times instead of Hillary Clinton, that’s not a good day obviously for the campaign.  Besides that, it plays into the Barack Obama narrative that they’re trying to form here, which is the baggage of the ‘90s with the Clintons, and every time he has a “misstep” so to speak, it plays into that.  You know, I, I kind of—I’ve been thinking about this, and it really seems like Bill Clinton’s like Allen Iverson in basketball.  You know, he’s, he’s a great player, hall of famer, the fans love him and everything, but sometimes he misses practice, and, you know, you take the good with the bad.  And it—it’s really an interesting scenario.

MR. RUSSERT:  They call Iverson “The Answer,” so...

MR. BRODY:  Yeah, that’s a good point.

MR. GREGORY:  Way in—the question is, what is the answer to what a lot of Democrats don’t like about George Bush, you know, the, the certainty of George Bush or the stubbornness of George Bush.  Is the answer, what a lot of critics of the Clintons say, a Clintonian way to approach issues, sort of too cute by half, a little calculating.  And, and that’s what his appear—his answer appeared to be on the Iraq war.  It’s what her answer appeared to be on the driver’s license questions in the debate in Philadelphia.  So it—it’s a reminder of what some people who don’t like Hillary Clinton don’t like.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me turn to the Republicans.  Des Moines Register poll out this morning.  Look at these numbers.

MR. BRODY:  Mm.

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