Lucrative opportunities may await Lott

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - With the announcement by Sen. Trent Lott that he will resign from the Senate by the end of this year, Mississippi is soon to lose a skillful senator. But Washington, D.C., may gain a shrewd lobbyist.

Lott’s imminent exit from the Senate signifies the departure of a generation of older, pragmatic, deal-making Republicans.

Even before Lott’s announcement Monday, five Republican senators had announced they won’t stand for re-election in 2008, which has created a very advantageous playing field for the Democrats.

Lott’s decision may be partly driven by the daunting numbers Republicans face in 2008, when they have 23 seats up for election, compared to 12 Democratic seats. For the GOP, the prognosis doesn’t get much better in 2010, when Republicans must defend 19 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 15.

The older generation
Other Senate GOP veterans are also facing possible retirement decisions in 2010: Sens. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Charles Grassley of Iowa, George Voinovich of Ohio, Christopher Bond of Missouri, and John McCain of Arizona.

All of them except Bond are over age 70; Bond is 68.

It appears that it will be hard for the Republicans to gain the Senate majority until 2012, at which point Lott would be 71 years old. He specifically mentioned his age in his retirement announcement in Pascagoula, Miss., on Monday.

“If Trent Lott saw happy times ahead for Republicans, he would stick around. He’s a smart guy, so his departure suggests that he sees pain around the corner,” said Prof. John Pitney, who teaches American Politics at Claremont McKenna College in California.

By giving Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour a chance to install a Republican successor before the 2008 elections, and allowing that successor to raise campaign money, Lott is doing everything he can to ensure his seat remains a Republican seat.

Video   Lott's exit: impact on GOP Nov. 26: Trent Lott became the sixth Republican senator to announce plans to step down this election cycle. What are the implications for the Republican Party?  NBC’s Chuck Todd discusses. Hardball

And the Democrats' chances of winning the seat appear slim: Mississippi is one of the most Republican-voting states in the nation; no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Mississippi since the legendary states' rights defender John Stennis won his last election in 1982.

"A statesman like Senator Lott knows instinctively when it is time to give the reins to a new generation and I would expect that he is resigning for the noblest of reasons," said Patrick Davis, former political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Davis praised Lott’s "calm demeanor in the center of the Washington political hurricanes."

A consummate pragmatist
Even in the dizzying days of the Senate trial of President Bill Clinton, Lott stayed focused on the pragmatic reality: the Republicans had no hope of getting the two-thirds of the Senate needed to convict Clinton.

Alex Brandon / AP Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., speaks with reporters after a news conference in Pascagoula, Miss. on Monday, Nov. 26, 2007.

He supported a proposal for an abbreviated debate on conviction, followed a test vote and then adjournment of the trial. After an outcry from conservative GOP House members, Lott dropped that idea, but the outcome was predictable: a short Senate trial ending in no conviction.

Unlike some of his Republican Senate colleagues who have announced their retirement in recent months, such as New Mexico’s Pete Domenici and Virginia’s John Warner, Lott appears to be in fine health and has years of lucrative work potentially before him.

“That’s what I do — I count votes for a living,” Lott mentioned in passing to reporters at his press conference Monday.

Lott’s vote-counting skills would be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars a year to Washington lobbying and advocacy firms.

Lobbying eligibility deadline
Due to the lobbying overhaul bill that President Bush signed into law last September, Lott had to act before the date of adjournment of the current session of Congress, or by Dec. 31, 2007, whichever date is earlier.

Otherwise he’d be forced to sit on the sidelines for a two-year “timeout” before beginning to lobby his former colleagues.

By acting before the law’s deadline, Lott would need to have only a one-year hiatus. The Mississippi Republican did mention in his press conference Monday that he does not “have anything definitely lined up at this time.”

The new lobbying rules which take effect at year end “would diminish his value to lobbyists, and thus his potential income. Trent Lott is not a rich man, so he probably figures that he should seize the opportunity to make some serious money. That’s especially true since he lost his house to Hurricane Katrina,” said Pitney.

By quitting before Dec. 31, Lott will be eligible to begin lobbying on Jan. 1, 2009.

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