‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Nov. 25, 2007

MR. MURPHY:  On the war, half the time she is.  But, yeah.  We got an open race there.  Iowa’s very volatile in the Republican world, too.  I mean, Romney, you know, great campaign, spent a lot of money, got away out in front. And now Huckabee has got that vote that’s always there waiting for somebody, that 25 to 30 percent of the Republican caucus that’s Christian fundamentalist and, and is a, you know, a strong vote and they like him.  So now Romney’s got a big problem.

MR. RUSSERT:  One last poll number...

MR. MURPHY:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...which underscores your point, Mike Murphy.  Look at this. On abortion, should abortion be legal, 23; illegal, 75 percent of the Republican caucus-goers say abortion should be illegal.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  Huckabee’s drawing overwhelming strength on that issue.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.  And the, the problem is, Huckabee will be hard to move down off that number.  So it kind of becomes Huckabee grabbing this 25 to 29, 30 percent, and then everybody else fighting over everything else, with Romney, of course, in the expectations, can see, you know, now, being the guy who kind of has to win Iowa to do what he’s supposed to do to move on to New Hampshire, where he also has a lead.  And then Thompson and Giuliani both fighting for that magic third place ticket, and maybe McCain, as well, out of Iowa, that I think that really be an interesting bounce into New Hampshire, where you could have a damaged Romney and Huckabee somewhat rejected because New Hampshire’s very different than Iowa, not as strong a Christian conservative state.  So that other regular Republican and third place out of Iowa could have a real shot to be interesting in New Hampshire.  Very open Republican race right now.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mary Matalin, what happened to your candidate Fred Thompson, fighting for third place in Iowa?

MS. MATALIN:  Oh, his—the dynamic hasn’t changed.  The numbers have changed. He’s down from his peak, but Rudy’s down from his peak.  Rudy’s substantially down from his peak.  He’s at his all-time low, as a matter of fact.  The dynamic hasn’t changed.  In the national polls, Fred Thompson remains in second place.  In South Carolina, a more pivotal state than the first two states, he’s tied for first with Romney, who’s been all over TV for two months.  Thompson’s been up for a week.

But going back to Iowa, Huckabee—Romney has to do something with Huckabee. And the problem for Huckabee is, and Romney has to figure out if he wants to exploit this, while he’s good with the self-identified Christian fundamentalists, he’s horrible on immigration, he’s for benefits for illegal aliens.  He’s terrible on spending and taxes, right?  Historic tax increases in Arkansas, government spending increased by 50 percent, government employees increased by 20 percent.  Romney has to say—he has to get Huckabee out of there, because if Huckabee shoots into Romney’s other—and that won’t be New Hampshire, but if he shoots into South Carolina, very bad for Romney.

MR. MURPHY:  It’s funny, if you talk to the Romney campaign, they say, you know, it’s about time that Thompson did something about Huckabee in Iowa. He’s really cutting into the race.  And the Thompson campaign says, you know, that Romney, if he wants to survive, better take a few zillion dollars out of the secret bank account and do something about that darn Huckabee.

MR. RUSSERT:  So who attacks whom, and how does that play?

MR. SHRUM:  Look...

MR. CARVILLE:  Well...

MR. SHRUM:  First of all, with all due respect, I think Fred Thompson’s running like a dry creek most anywhere he goes in the country.  What’s really happening here—and I think there will be an attack, and I think it will probably come from Romney because he cannot afford to lose Iowa to Huckabee; I think the guy has a glass jaw potentially if that happens—Huckabee is the best friend Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson has going for him in Iowa.  What’s happening there is you have the revenge of the social conservatives against the leading Republican candidates:  Giuliani, who won’t change his positions even if he promises conservative judges; Thompson, who’s not for a human life amendment to the Constitution; and Romney, who’s pro-life, pro-choice and multiple choice.  And these folks found somebody who’s affable, likeable and seemed to express their views.

MR. RUSSERT:  James, go ahead, and then we’ll go to Mary.

MR. CARVILLE:  If, if, if they shoot Huckabee, which they’re going to, believe me, they’re going to try to shoot—if they hit him, they’re going to shoot at him.  If they hit him, the turnout in these caucuses on the Republican side is going to be abysmally low because this, this is—this is these Christians’ guy.  They—and he can relate to people, Huckabee is one heck of a politician.  He actually kind of likes people, and he’s out there. They may, they may shoot him and they may hit him, but they’re going to do that at their own peril because they’re going to really, really aggravate these people who’ve been a very, very important part of the Republican Coalition.  And I think Mitt Romney is smart enough to understand that, I think Fred Thompson is smart enough to understand that, is the danger is, you hit Huckabee and you take a lot of people out of this process.

MR. MURPHY:  And you don’t move anything.  Huckabee, that vote is going to sit there for Huckabee.  You might be able to move it a little bit, but not a lot.  The guy Romney’s got to worry about is Rudy Giuliani coming up through the floorboards in New Hampshire.  That’s where Romney’s attacking ought to happen.  And Fred’s got to do something.  He’s a friend of mine, but watching him campaign is like watching a big bear stand up and try to dance on ice.  It has not been a steady, and, and I—well, you know, I’ve got to call it as I see it.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mary...

MR. MURPHY:  Fred has to come in third in Iowa to get back in the race.

MS. MATALIN:  Oh my...

MR. RUSSERT:  ...you’re Thompson’s woman, so we’ll give you a chance to respond.

MS. MATALIN:  And I...

MR. RUSSERT:  But, but, but lay it out for us because if Thompson is fighting for third place in Iowa, in New Hampshire he’s in sixth place.  Where does he win?  Where does he get involved in the race in a winning way?

MS. MATALIN:  Here, here, here’s the difference between conservatives and Democrats.  All right?  There’s a parallel narrative on Fred.  There’s the Beltway bloviators.  They don’t like the process.  They don’t like all of us. Right?

MR. SHRUM:  Mary, aren’t you one of those?

MS. MATALIN:  I am—I am a mini bloviator.  But I, I, I like—I—here’s what Fred is, is doing.  They don’t—might not like the way he’s campaigning, but the human life amendment, he just got the National Right to Life endorsement, very coveted.  In four weeks, he’s put out four specific detailed policies: on immigration, on Social Security, on expanding the military, and today on another network, he’s rolling out his tax relief and economic growth plan. Four weeks, four plans.  The Washington Post has called him courageous.  He’s the only one on either side that’s putting out these specific detailed plans on conservative principles.

MR. RUSSERT:  But one of those principles...

MS. MATALIN:  All right, so we can bloviate about the process...

MR. MURPHY:  We’re not bloviating...

MR. RUSSERT:  But one of, one of...

MS. MATALIN:  If you care about substance, experience...

MR. RUSSERT:  All right, one of those principles is gun control, Second Amendment, and this is what he had to say about Rudy Giuliani.  Here’s Fred Thompson.

(Videotape)

MR. FRED THOMPSON:  I think probably the, the starkest differentiation is with Mayor Giuliani.  He simply supported just about every gun control legislation that came down the pipe.  He relates everything to New York City. Well, New York City is not emblematic of the rest of the country, I don’t think.  And I think those sentiments of those people in the rest of the country are in strong support of the Second Amendment, which is where I’ve always been and I don’t think he’s ever been.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Giuliani’s spokeswoman responded this way, “Coming from a man who lives in the Beltway, who is a Washington insider and lobbyist and who played the role Rudy Giuliani actually lived on a television series, I am not sure what to make of the senator’s comments, except to say results are results.” However, Rudy Giuliani has said that, like an automobile, handguns should be registered.  That is his position widely stated throughout his career.

James Carville, objectively, in those kind of exchanges between Thompson and Giuliani, what happened?  What resonates with the voter in a Republican caucus or primary?

MR. CARVILLE:  Well, I mean, I think that people find out that Giuliani was for gun, for gun control.  I mean, that, that—when you’re left with that, you’re, you’re kind of left with he’s a—he’s an actor and, and a lobbyist, all of which has sort of been out there.  My, my, my guess is, is, is Thompson got the best of that exchange among Iowa caucus-goers.  And I think that, that the Giuliani response was they were kind of aggravated that this kind of brought up on them.  If you looked at this is what he thinks, where the press secretary is more “How dare he!” Most of these—what strikes me is most of these attacks against Senator Clinton thing, “You’re not treasury secretary,” “You grew up in Indonesia” or gun control, they’re all within a pretty good range of acceptability.  These are not sort of unfair, personal ad hominem things.  I mean, Fred Thompson is just bringing out a distinction, and they’re, they’re going to get—my point is, it’s going to get pretty tepid up to here.  It’s going, it’s going to get a lot hotter.

MR. MURPHY:  I think you’re going to see kind of a mini primary breaking out in Iowa between Rudy and Thompson for third place because that’s a very valuable ticket to either guy.  If Fred can beat Rudy in Iowa where, despite the expectations, skullduggery, where Rudy says, “Iowa, never heard of it,” he’s putting a lot of resources, then Fred’s back to life.  That’s like the jumper cables that’ll get Fred back in the race, and he’ll be able to go to New Hampshire as one of the big three, and he’ll have his shot.  I think, with all due respect, he’s going to need more than issue papers.  He’s got to get that Fred charisma back that we know he had in ‘94.  But, but that’s going to be the question, and third place in Iowa would earn him that opportunity.

MR. SHRUM:  I think this discussion illustrates a reality about the Republican field which is that it’s fragile.  Everybody is a fragile candidate.  This thing could move around for a long time, might not get settled until much closer to the convention, and much later than the Democrats, because every one of these people has very big vulnerabilities, even Fred.

MS. MATALIN:  Listen, let me go back to the gun thing because it’s not an, an issue, and these are not issue papers.  The gun culture, it’s not a gun culture, it’s a mainstream culture.  It’s emblematic of a really important element of the conservative psyche.  They’re hunters, they’re sportsmen, it’s a lifestyle thing.  They’re Constitutionalists.  And it wasn’t that Rudy was just for gun control.  He was hostile to gun owners and hostile to the Second Amendment.  He’s the only mayor that sued gun companies.  He blamed five Southern states for the troubles that New York was having with guns.  He was the only mayor who bragged about running around the country in support of Clinton’s gun control.  These are things that—it’s—these, these gun guys are a cultural bedrock of conservativism.

MR. RUSSERT:  And ladies.

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