‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Nov. 25, 2007

On the other hand, I agree with Elizabeth Edwards.  Of course you should have these debates about issues and differences.  The truth is that John Edwards, while he is attacking Hillary Clinton, is her best friend in Iowa right now, because he provides another major magnet for these change voters.  And if you look at that—those numbers you put up earlier, Hillary Clinton is actually further behind Barack Obama in second choice votes than she is ahead of Bill Richardson.  So if, if John Edwards ever started to decline and when some of these other people don’t reach the 15 percent threshold, the voters right now are more likely to go to Obama than they are to, to, to go to Hillary Clinton.

MR. RUSSERT:  So, at this stage of the campaign, 70 percent plus have opted not to embrace any of the candidates, but seem to be what, in your mind?

MR. SHRUM:  Well, I, I—you know, look, some of the people who are for Edwards would go to Clinton.  Some of the people who are for Richardson—there aren’t very many for Dodd or Biden—would, would ultimately, in the end, go for Clinton.  But far more of them, I think, if you look at the, the internals of this poll, are likely right now to, to, to go to Obama, unless he makes a mistake.  You know, we have these four debates in December.  I think they’re going to be really critical.  I think people are going to take a very close look.  The Des Moines Register debate in both 2000 and 2004 was a really critical moment in the Iowa caucuses.  I mean, John Kerry destroyed Howard Dean with one question in that debate.

MR. RUSSERT:  Which was?

MR. SHRUM:  He said, “You recently said you wouldn’t assume Osama bin Laden was guilty.  What in the world were you thinking?” There’s no answer to that question.  Democrats heard that and said, “We can’t send him out there as our nominee.  He’ll get killed.”

MR. MURPHY:  Under the mechanics of the caucus, without meaning to wonk out and bore everybody to death, as you all know, there’s second-choice dynamics. People stand in a corner of the room, and blah, blah, blah.  I think all the non-Hillary voters, if they don’t wind up with their Biden or their Richardson or even their Edwards on Election Day, break heavily to Obama, another time bomb, I think, in the system for her.

MR. CARVILLE:  I think 39 days is a long, long, long time.  And, and, and the whole history of Iowa is, is that things change, happen late, and they happen big.  I, I, I, I don’t...

MR. SHRUM:  Yeah.

MR. CARVILLE:  I think that this is anybody’s race here.  Any of the top three candidates could win this.  Bob points out very, very accurately, there’s four more debates to go.  And, and these caucus-goers are involved in this.  They’re going to watch this.  They’re going to read the paper.  They’re very involved in this thing.

MR. RUSSERT:  Eighty percent of the Democratic caucus-goers said they’ve been contacted by a candidate.

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  A third said they’ve met a candidate personally.

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  Sixty percent said—can you imagine?

MR. CARVILLE:  There’s a bounty on the 20 percent.  If you can break somebody in...(unintelligible)...they’ll pay you.  Right?

MS. MATALIN:  She—which is why campaign—she’s going to drag every single—there’s only 130,000 people that participate in this.  It’s 4 percent of the population.  She’s going to drag everyone to the caucus.

MR. MURPHY:  But the fact they have to be dragged is the problem.

MS. MATALIN:  It doesn’t matter.  A win is a win.

MR. RUSSERT:  But there are differences on the issues.  They differ on Social Security.

MS. MATALIN:  They do.

MR. RUSSERT:  They differ on healthcare.

MS. MATALIN:  They do.

MR. RUSSERT:  They had a difference on the vote for the war for Iraq.

MS. MATALIN:  Yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  I mean, it is quite striking that issues...

MR. CARVILLE:  It, it, it...

MR. RUSSERT:  ...have been driving, in many ways, this race.

MR. CARVILLE:  And it’s going to drive it more.  And, and, and you watch the turnout in these Democratic caucuses compared to Republican caucuses.

MR. MURPHY:  Mm-hmm.

MR. CARVILLE:  It’s going to be a huge difference.  And, and, look, I can be for Senator Clinton, but I got to acknowledge, this is, is—out of the top three, these are some talented horses coming into the stretch here.  I mean, get out of the way.  We going to have a hell of a 39 days.

MR. RUSSERT:  James, Hillary Clinton is so well-known by the people of Iowa. Why are they still, at this point, so resistant to her?

MR. CARVILLE:  Same thing with, with Al Gore in 2000.  He was the vice president, he was running against Bradley.  Bradley was way ahead.  People said, “Gee, no one can be for”—I mean, the truth of the matter is these people take their time.  I, I, I, I say again and again and again, this race could go to any of the three.  I think that the—I think that this 39 days—whatever we’ve seen so far is nothing compared to what we’re going to see in these 39 days.

MR. SHRUM:  Yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  I agree with that.

MR. CARVILLE:  And these little attacks about, “Well, you said you lived in Indonesia” and that, or you—well, stand by, we’re, we’re getting ready to get in there.

MS. MATALIN:  Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  Still wide open?

MR. SHRUM:  Yeah.  I’ve always—I will say one thing about that.  I’ve always been the, the great apostle of “They decide at the end” because I’ve been involved in a whole bunch of Iowa caucuses where they do.  But there are underlying factors that tend to shake that decision.  When John Kerry was totally in the valley, if you looked inside the poll, you could see that voters wanted someone that they thought could be president and might beat President Bush, and you had to position him and get there, and that’s where we ultimately met voters.  I think what’s happening here is that she’s either got to adapt to this change dynamic or the dynamic has to change or he has to make a mistake...

MR. MURPHY:  Right.

MR. SHRUM:  ...for her to win the caucuses.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.  They—any of them could win, but I think she has the weakest path based on what’s going on in Iowa, where the voters are.

MR. RUSSERT:  We’re going to come back and talk about the Republicans, Mary Matalin and Mike Murphy.  We’ll be right back after this.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  More on the race for the White House, 39 days to Iowa, 44 days to New Hampshire.  Carville, Matalin, Murphy and Shrum after this.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  And we’re back.  Let’s go to the Republicans.  Here’s the latest poll, again from Iowa, Washington Post:  Romney, 28; Huckabee, 24; Fred Thompson, 15; Rudy Giuliani, 13.

And this question:  Will you definitely support your first candidate choice? Look at this, Romney supporters, 29 percent say yes; Huckabee, 48 percent. That’s strong evangelical Christian support primarily.

Then this, the best experience to be president.  They say Romney, 31; Giuliani, 21; McCain, 13; Huckabee, 12; Thompson, 9.

And this:  most honest and trustworthy, Huckabee, 26; Romney, 25; Thompson, 13; McCain, 8; Giuliani, just 4.

Which is most important in a presidential candidate?  Strength and experience, 70; new direction and ideas, 22.  Remember the Republican—the Democratic numbers?

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  Strength and experience was 33, new direction was 55.

MR. MURPHY:  First time in her life that Hillary Clinton wishes she was a Republican.

MR. RUSSERT:  She could...

MS. MATALIN:  Yeah.

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