‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Nov. 25, 2007

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  Our issues this Sunday:  Only 39 days until the Iowa caucuses.  The Democratic race too close to call.  The Republican race too close to call.  Which issues, policies, strategies will resonate?

With us, he helped put Bill and Hillary Clinton in the White House in 1992, Democrat James Carville.  She worked for Bush 41 and Bush 43 and now supports Fred Thompson, Republican Mary Matalin.  He’s worked for both John McCain and Mitt Romney, Republican Mike Murphy.  And he’s worked for Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards and more, Democrat Bob Shrum.  The race for the White House through the eyes of Carville, Matalin, Murphy and Shrum only on MEET THE PRESS.

And welcome all.  Happy belated Thanksgiving.  We’re back here at the dinner table, so let’s carve up the politics.

Here’s the latest poll from Iowa, The Washington Post.  Democratic side first: Obama, 30; Clinton, 26; Edwards, 22; Richardson, 11.  Who’s your second choice?  Obama, again on top 26; Edwards, 24; Clinton, 19; Richardson, 13. Division between men and women:  Men, Obama, 28; Clinton, 19; Edwards, 25. Women, Obama, 32; Clinton, 31; Edwards, 19.  And what about Democrats and independents?  Amongst Democrats, Obama, 28; Clinton, 28; Edwards, 22. Independents, Obama, 35; Clinton, 18; Edwards, 24.

James Carville, you’re a supporter of Hillary Clinton.

MR. JAMES CARVILLE:  I am.

MR. RUSSERT:  A donor to Hillary Clinton.

MR. CARVILLE:  I am.  Max, max out—a maxed out donor.

MR. RUSSERT:  She’s tied with women.

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  Losing men and losing independents 2-to-1.

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  What does that say about the state of her candidacy in Iowa?

MR. CARVILLE:  It says that Iowa is very tight and, and, and this poll and every poll has shown that it’s very tight.  Also, Iowa polls are, are, are unreliable over a month out.  John Kerry was running third, Bill Bradley, at the time, was way ahead of Al Gore in Iowa.  She’s in a fight.  There, there—there’s—she’s got some talented, well-funded opposition and, and it’s—Iowa’s going to be a struggle.  I think, in the end, she can win, but this, this thing is going to go down to the wire, very much so.  And, and this poll is, is a confirmation of other polls.  I think that her people would point out that, that many of them have her slightly ahead, but I, I can see that it’s very much up in the air.

MR. RUSSERT:  Bob Shrum.

MR. BOB SHRUM:  Well, this has been the year of the upset in college football, and, with all due respect to James, I think there’s a chance that Hillary Clinton, the danger for her is she’ll be the LSU of the Democratic primary contest.  What’s happened is that the whole dimension of experience which she’s been trying to run on vs. change, which is Obama’s calling card, experience has become less important to these voters, change has become more important.  And that, in my view, is because experience is a threshold question.  You know, in 1960, Nixon ran on the slogan “Experience Counts.” And if you guys had been around then and taken exit polls and you’d ask people on Election Day does Nixon have more experience, 60 percent would’ve said yes. And if you’d said does Kennedy have enough experience, 60 percent would’ve said yes.  And I think Obama right now is passing the threshold.  The danger is in these four big coming debates in the first part of December.  He could make a mistake; that would help her.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me show you some of those issues and follow up with what Bob said.  Most experience to be president?  Iowans say Clinton, 38; Edwards, 16; Richardson, 16; Obama just 11.  But most honest and trustworthy, Obama, 31; Edwards, 20; Clinton, 15; Richardson, 13.  And then this question, is willing to say what he or she really thinks:  Obama is willing, 76; is not, 20.  Edwards is willing, 73; not, 21.  Hillary Clinton 50 to 45.

This question, the next one, best chance of electing—being elected president, however, Hillary Clinton, 39 percent; Obama, 25; Edwards, 22; Richardson, 2. And then this last one that Bob referred to, do you want—which is more important?  Strength and experience, 33; a new direction and new ideas, 55 percent of the Democrats in Iowa.

Mike Murphy, your take on Iowa, Democratic side?

MR. MIKE MURPHY:  I think, you know, everything changes in politics, but I’ve, I’ve been for a long time believing that Hillary Clinton is going to lose that, that caucus, and it’s not even her fault.  It’s a change election. She’s not really a change candidate, as Bob said.  But beyond that, what people perceive about her, her style, some of the trustworthy issues you see in this poll, that hearkens back to old politics.  So that they’re rejecting more than a chronology of the fact that she was part of a past administration. Now, there’s still time.  It’s a real fight now.  But I think the even bigger problem for Hillary Clinton is the compressed calendar means if she does lose Iowa, it’s not like the old days where you had a lot of time and money to recover.  Obama, the challenger, has money, and she will not have a lot of time.  New Hampshire comes five days later now.  And I think if Hillary loses Iowa and then Obama surges to win in New Hampshire, she’s going to be in a real, real bad situation.  It’s Ed Muskieville for her, and that could be very, very tough to get—recover from.  And then this big invincible thing we’ve heard about how she’s got the nomination locked, it’s all over, they’re dividing up parking spaces is all out the window, and Obama could be the nominee.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mary.

MS. MARY MATALIN:  The best thing that could happen to Hillary Clinton is to lose Iowa.  And I’m not being a contrarian or a wisenheimer.  There’s a fast calendar.  It’s a change election, but it’s a completely unique and fluid and dynamic situation.  If she loses, she gets knocked back.  We’ve seen repeatedly, this is the Energizer bunny of candidates.  She takes a licking, and she gets—keeps on ticking.  And she’s got the money, she’s got the team, she’s got the resolve.  This woman is not going to lay down and let Obama walk over her.

Plus, the Democratic Party, you guys are so convinced that you can’t lose that you’re skittish about doing what it takes to win.  And once Obama’s out there and exposed, he doesn’t have experience, he’s not that good of a candidate. He’s, he’s emblematic of what you want him to be.  But when he starts putting things on the table, I think people take a second, serious look at her in ways that they’re skittish about looking at her now.  She needs to have some new narrative, the comeback kid.  That’s how you guys did it, and it’s a good narrative, and it one—it’s one that would work for her.

MR. RUSSERT:  But, Mike Murphy, you think New Hampshire coming just five days after Iowa presents a problem.

MR. MURPHY:  Right.  Yeah, I think you’re going to see a momentum schedule like never before, and, unlike the Gary Harts, the other insurging candidates have taken on a front-runner.  Not only is it quicker, Obama’s got money.  For every dollar she has in the primary account, he’s got 85 cents.  So he’s got the legs to run.

And finally, I’d say one thing.  I think there’s been a mistake.  People lump the Clintons together.  Bill Clinton was one of the greatest natural candidates I’ve ever seen.  I think Hillary Clinton, if I were a Democrat, I would think would be a very good White House chief of staff.  She’s very smart, she’s very tough.  But now—no.  OK, voters take note, they’re laughing.  But I’m not sure she’s a very good candidate.  I think the empress has had no clothes on this...

MR. SHRUM:  Can I defend, can I defend Hillary Clinton?

MR. CARVILLE:  Right, yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah.

MR. SHRUM:  I think Hillary Clinton has been a terrific candidate in this race.  I think Mike’s right, to a certain extent.  She’s in a difficult spot because Iowa is demanding change and she doesn’t look like the change candidate.  And some nitwit on her staff thought that this very, very bright woman couldn’t spontaneously answer questions and went out and planted questions, which hurt her on this honesty thing.  But the notion that she hasn’t run a good campaign is completely wrong.

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MS. MATALIN:  And then she...

MR. CARVILLE:  And if I could come in and say that she, she has performed superbly well across the debates.  Maybe one of the debates, she might not been her best one, but if you look in, in, in—she really came back well.  I got to defend my, I got to defend my candidate here a little bit.  And they would say, on the healthcare thing, that there’s a real distinction, a real change, that Obama doesn’t have the mandate, leaves 15 million people uninsured.  I, I admit, it’s a tough, it’s a tough situation here.  But she is—she has run a, a, a, very good campaign, has a competent campaign.

MR. RUSSERT:  But James Carville, after the Philadelphia debate...

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...you were willing to acknowledge that day it was not...

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