Hillary vs. Clinton

Do voters want Bill Clinton as a backseat driving Secretary of Defense, or State or Treasury? 

That's the question pollsters ought to be asking. Joe Biden seemed to hint at this when he ruled out being Hillary's vice president. He told CNN it would be nothing more than a "ceremonial post" because of the presence of Bill Clinton.

Maybe the voters do want Bill Clinton actively involved. But we don't know. I won't pretend to know the answer. My guess is that voters will receive the idea of Bill Clinton being actively involved in running the country as both a positive and a negative.

There's no muffling Bill Clinton. It would be strange for Hillary's campaign to try to, just as it is strange when they over-use him.

It's one of the bigger unknowns of this campaign… how will voters receive this idea of two presidents who pillow talk?

For now, Bill's probably a bigger asset than liability as Democratic primary voters long for the days of Clinton.

But this week, we learned via a new Washington Post poll that a majority of Iowa Democratic caucus goers prefer a candidate who advocates a "new direction and new ideas" over a candidate who is pushing "strength and experience."

If that's not code for "Hillary" vs. "Clinton," I don't know what is. The Clinton campaign has very effectively used the Clinton brand to push the idea of “strength and experience.” They have had a much harder time using the Hillary brand to push a "new direction and new ideas."

As I've written before, Obama in both looks and via his name screams "change." Clinton, because she could be the first woman president, should also have an easy time selling the idea that she's change. And in general, this task should be easy. But with Democrats, she may be hitting a (breakable) brick wall.

For now, the campaign seems to be trying to sell the idea that returning to some things Bill Clinton did in the '90s is "experienced change." Perhaps hammering this message home for the next 40 days and 40 nights will make Iowans view Hillary’s experience as a change from the Bush way of doing things.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

But right now, Obama seems to be having a much easier time selling change. His challenge is selling experience. And there are a lot of past presidential candidates who had a tough time selling the idea that they were experienced.

In a Washington Post poll released in October '92, then-Pres. Bush scored nearly 20 points higher on having the "right experience" for the job compared with Bill Clinton. Al Gore had a nearly identical 20-point advantage over George W. Bush on the experience question in an election eve survey by ABC. And we know how both of those elections turned out.

Change usually trumps experience even as the experience issue can be used to sway last minute undecideds. Gerald Ford got close in '76 because of his ability to call into question Jimmy Carter's inexperience. Ditto with Nixon in '60 with JFK. But what do both Ford and Nixon have in common? Change trumped experience at the very end.

Of course, all of these examples refer to general elections, and primary electorates can be a cautious bunch. Democrats went for the candidate of less change in '04, '00, and in '84 and even '80. Then again, the Democrats lost in all four of those cycles.

Hillary Clinton's best chance at the White House is her gender. Her biggest impediment may be her last name, even though her last name may have gotten her this far. If she's sworn in on Jan. 20, 2009, it will mean "Hillary" beat "Clinton" in the primaries.

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