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Air safety: Flying into the unknown


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From the cockpit
A worldwide analysis by ICAO over a recent six-year period showed that the leading cause of fatal accidents is human error: Most crashes were caused by either "loss of control in flight" or "controlled flight into terrain" (CFIT)—aviation-speak for flying a perfectly good plane into the ground (or water). Terrain awareness systems are available to warn against CFIT and are required in aircraft flown by U.S. and EU airlines, but many other countries do not require them. None of the planes in the five 2006 crashes determined to be caused by CFIT were equipped with the technology.

Pilot skills—and a looming shortage of experienced pilots—are of increasing concern. In several recent crashes, cultural issues or language barriers have had fatal consequences. A National Transportation Safety Board report on the 2004 Flash Airlines crash pinned the blame on the captain, saying he was likely experiencing spatial disorientation when the plane spun out of control and dove into the water shortly after takeoff; the investigators also implied that the co-pilot was apparently discouraged from challenging his superior. The Egyptian government has strenuously rejected these conclusions. Nonetheless, poorly trained or inexperienced pilots have been a factor in numerous accidents, according to Flight Safety Foundation statistics.

English is the lingua franca of the aviation industry, yet many pilots aren't fluent enough to prevent misunderstandings with air-traffic control or other pilots. Dmitry Tarasevich, a director of Moscow's Flight Safety Foundation, an affiliate of the Washington-based group, acknowledges that the language barrier can have dire consequences. In 1996, when a Saudi Arabian Airlines 747 collided with a Kazakh cargo jet near New Delhi, the investigation revealed that one of the Kazakh pilots had misunderstood instructions from the air-traffic controller. Tarasevich has led an effort to train Russian pilots by sending them to an English-language institute in the United Kingdom. In China, where only about 600 of the roughly 9,000 international pilots recently met the ICAO's standards for fluency in English; a similar push is on for intensive language lessons.

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Pilot training facilities are another trouble spot identified by analysts. In Russia, after the collapse of the USSR, the main pilot schools shut down for much of the 1990s. "For ten years, we produced almost no pilots," says Ascend's Boris Bychov. "Now we are seeing the consequences." The schools are back in business, and in barely a decade, the country made the transition from a single state-run airline to more than 170 carriers. But as iJet analyst Alex Bobilev puts it, "it is as if we lost an entire generation of pilots."

Pilots' groups have also raised concerns about a "brain drain" that is causing a shortage of qualified pilots in poorer nations in Asia and Africa. "Once these pilots get fully trained, they're poached" by Western airlines or by expanding carriers in the oil-rich Middle East, says Paul McCarthy, of the International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations (IFALPA). The shortage is expected to worsen as airlines take delivery of some 1,800 jets in the next 18 months. "Filling those cockpits with unqualified pilots would introduce a huge risk," McCarthy warns.

Potential fixes
Under an ICAO initiative, all commercial pilots flying international routes, as well as all controllers who interact with them, are expected to be fluent in English by March 2008. However, many countries are expected to miss that deadline, according to safety sources. All planes should be equipped with collision warning systems, and most safety experts believe that more openness in reporting problems should be encouraged, allowing pilots and others to come forward to report any dangers. In some countries, however, the trend seems to be moving in the opposite direction, notes McCarthy, whose pilots' group has protested the criminal trial of the U.S. pilots in Brazil. Air-traffic controllers are also alarmed: "Jailing and a regime of fear [could] lead to safety information not being reported by everyone in the aviation safety chain," warns Marc Baumgartner, president of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers Associations in Montreal.

Runway dangers
IFALPA estimates that hundreds of airports around the world have runway safety issues ranging from challenging terrain to lack of barriers to prevent planes from straying out of bounds. The problem is that many airports built when propeller planes were the norm are now buckling under the strain of far more traffic—and larger planes—than they were designed to handle.

At São Paulo's Congonhas Airport, for instance, the main runway is 6,300 feet long, several hundred feet shorter than those of comparable domestic airports in the United States. Congonhas is also hemmed in by tall buildings that complicate the approach, according to several pilots who fly to South America often. One source at a leading security firm says that he knows of several international companies that have put the airport on a no-fly list for their employees.

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The runway safety problem is, however, a universal one: In the aftermath of a 2005 Air France crash at Toronto Airport in which everyone was evacuated, safety advocates pointed out that the airport had not installed the runway barriers they had been recommending for years. The United States has had its own string of runway disasters, including the 2005 crash of a Southwest Airlines 737 at Chicago's Midway Airport in which one person on the ground was killed.

Potential fixes
IFALPA has called for all airports to be equipped with at least one thousand-foot runway overrun area. At older facilities that may not have adequate space for longer safety strips, the pilots have recommended installing an area of light, crushed concrete to slow planes. Meanwhile, controllers and pilots are pushing for installation of anticollision technology at airports that would warn the cockpit of an impending fender-bender—a move that has been advocated in the United States for years and which would help reduce an alarming rise in the number of near misses at airports.


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