Is Starbucks expanding too quickly?

updated 4:50 p.m. ET Nov. 13, 2007

SEATTLE - With its affluent customer base and uncanny knack for drawing crowds, Starbucks Corp. has long seemed immune from the slowdowns that plague most retailers when the economy falters.

But the king of the $4 coffee is feeling the pinch now. Dairy prices have skyrocketed, fast-food chains have made it easier to find a good cup of joe, and traffic in U.S. stores has flattened amid high fuel prices and turmoil in the housing and credit markets.

Add it all up, and it’s dragged the company’s stock down nearly 40 percent in the past year.

The company reports earnings Thursday for its fourth fiscal quarter, which ended in early October. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are projecting Starbucks will earn 21 cents a share on $2.43 billion in revenue.

While many analysts remain bullish on the company’s long-term growth prospects, they’re keeping a close eye on same-store sales — a key measure of a retailer’s health — and some are wondering if certain U.S. markets have gotten saturated.

“At some point, the growth sort of levels out,” said Robert Toomey, an analyst with E.K. Riley Investments. “How much more of the market can you continue to penetrate? How many more people are going to be emerging as new latte drinkers at Starbucks?”

Some aren’t convinced that market saturation is a problem for a company that has remained steadily profitable while opening an average of six stores a day.

“It’s always been a part of Starbucks’ operating model ... to open stores near one another,” said Sharon Zackfia, an analyst with William Blair & Company. “Initially, they often do cannibalize the nearest store when they do open, and then after a while the store that was cannibalized bounces back.”

Starbucks shares rose 73 cents, or about 3.2 percent, to $23.87 Tuesday afternoon. The stock was trading close to $40 a share this time last year.

The company declined to comment for this story, citing its policy of not discussing the business in the days ahead of quarterly earnings reports.

In an infamous leaked memo earlier this year, Chairman Howard Schultz lamented that the company’s aggressive growth had led to “a watering down of the Starbucks experience.” Yet it shows no signs of slowing down.

In August, it stuck by guidance that it would open at least 2,400 new stores worldwide in the current fiscal year — twice as many as in 2003 — and slightly more next year. Last fall, the company set a global long-term goal of having 40,000 stores, 10,000 more than its previous target.

It has more than 14,000 stores today, 10 times more than a decade ago. Most are in the U.S., but eventually, the company envisions serving half its coffee overseas, where executives and analysts see huge potential for growth, particularly in China.

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