Advertisers anxious to see writers strike end

updated 9:28 p.m. ET Nov. 12, 2007

NEW YORK - As the Hollywood writers strike enters a second week, advertisers are worrying it could seriously disrupt the TV schedule — and the number of eyeballs viewing their ads — in coming months.

So far, the strike has forced only late-night talk and comedy shows into reruns, since their material must be freshly scripted every day.

But when marquee shows like "The Office," "Desperate Housewives" and "24" halted production, the supply of ready-to-air prime-time hits came under threat — and that has been unsettling to advertisers.

For the moment, the bulk of the TV schedule is intact. And ad buyers aren't worried about losing money because their contracts guarantee total audience counts, which the networks will make up with more airtime if ratings drop.

The real worry is what effect a prolonged strike could have on future TV show development and on audience loyalty to big-name shows, particularly as viewers face more and more choices for watching video — streamed over the Internet, uploaded to a media player or on cable channels.

"This could become a watershed moment," said Brad Adgate, senior vice president of research at Horizon Media, a major advertising buying and planning agency. "There's a lot of opportunities that consumers have with digital media, and advertising dollars are going to follow the eyeballs."

In fact, consumers' opportunities are at the heart of the current labor dispute. Writers want a share of future revenue from new media video channels such as streaming over the Web, but networks are balking. They say it's too early to tell what that business looks like.

In 1988, the last time Hollywood and television writers went on strike, Adgate said, cable was a weaker force, with the average home having just 28 channels and just 55 percent of U.S. households subscribing. Today, about 85 percent of households have cable.

Heather Goodchild, media analyst at the Standard & Poor's credit rating agency, said in a report last week that the networks' prime programs "could lose momentum and, potentially, audience interest if they are replaced by ad hoc, filler programming."

And that could outweigh the benefit of the lower cost of producing the replacement programming, such as reality shows.

Chris Caldwell, a media buyer at the Houston-based agency Briggs & Caldwell, said if an extended strike does significantly affect network programming, his agency will look more closely at other choices for placing television advertising.

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