Delegate math: Giuliani OK sans early states?

Here's how.

—Giuliani has wide leads in bigger states with more delegates, such as Florida (57 delegates), California (173), New York (101), New Jersey (52) and Illinois (70). He's expected to capture Connecticut (30) and Delaware (18), too. He campaigned Monday in Missouri (58), another big prize whose senior senator, four-term Republican Kit Bond, recently endorsed Giuliani.

—Even where he doesn't win on Feb. 5, Giuliani could still come in second and win delegates. Big states in this category might include Georgia (72), Alabama (48) or Tennessee (55). Only a few — New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware and Missouri among them — award delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Other winner-take-all states, Arizona (53) and Utah (36), are expected to go for John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively.

—States voting after Feb. 5, including Maryland (37), Ohio (88) and Pennsylvania (74), also hold potential for Giuliani to roll up most or some of the delegates.

Giuliani has a good shot at winning an early state or two as well. He has gained ground on former Massachusetts Gov. Romney in New Hampshire (12 delegates), where Giuliani ranks second in polls, and has battled Thompson for the lead in South Carolina (24).

He is spending more time in New Hampshire and in recent weeks has been mailing fliers to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's also run radio ads there.

Tom Gannam / AP Republican Presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani at a Town Hall meeting Monday, Nov. 12, 2007 in St. Charles, Mo.

But Giuliani's rivals say that if he fails to capture an early state his math won't add up. They argue a candidate just can't count on winning the later states without factoring in the winner of the early contests.

Whoever wins Iowa—and Romney has a double-digit lead there — will be viewed as the leader going into the next few contests, officials in other campaigns insist.

"People want to vote for a winner," says Carl Forti, political director of Romney's campaign. "And the winner is determined by who is on the front page of the papers and who is perceived as the front-runner after those early primaries."

History backs up this claim: Democrats John Kerry, Bill Clinton and Michael Dukakis all came from behind to win Iowa, then gathered steam to eventually win their party's nomination; Republican George W. Bush, after winning Iowa but losing New Hampshire to Arizona Sen. McCain, managed to win South Carolina and become the 2000 nominee.

Tom Gannam / AP A young Rudy Giuliani supporter at the candidate's Town Hall meeting Monday, Nov. 12, 2007, in St. Charles, Mo.

"Win the early states, and you get momentum and money," says Rich Bond, a former Republican National Committee chairman. "The question is, is that momentum and money a big enough wave to capsize Giuliani, who may not have won any of those early states?"

McCain's advisers suggest the earlier primaries could make the first states more influential, not less. Florida is so expensive to run television advertisements in that media coverage of the early leader will have a big impact, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis says.

"If you don't have momentum going into Feb. 5, forget about it. And I think that's equally true in Florida," Davis says.

Al Cardenas, a former Florida Republican Party chairman who is supporting Romney, agrees: "The winner of the early primaries will carry an enormous slingshot effect into later races," he says.

Using either strategy —momentum or simple math — Giuliani's campaign wagers it can win.

MORE FROM

Section Front

Obama campaign head gets big book deal Officials turn down Franken request Joe the Plumber to become war correspondent Franken lead at 49 with absentees left to count Minn. Senate winner won't be known in 2008 First Read: 'Twas the seventh week of recount... Franken opens first lead in Minn. Senate race Mom of Palin daughter's boyfriend arrested Minn. court weighs rejected absentee ballots Minnesota panel reviews disputed ballots Section Front   Add headlines to your news reader: