Delegate math: Giuliani OK sans early states?

updated 4:52 p.m. ET Nov. 12, 2007

ORLANDO, Fla. - Early momentum has been the surefire way to win modern presidential primaries: Emerge as the front-runner in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, then steamroll through later states to become the nominee.

Most of the Republican candidates are betting on this approach for 2008, but Rudy Giuliani is counting on something simpler: delegate math.

His plan is based on the fact that Florida and several other big states, trying to loosen the grip of the traditional early contests, are voting earlier than usual to compete for influence and attention from the candidates.

The shake-up might help Giuliani capture the nomination, even without the "must-win" early states.

"There's never been an election like this before, where you have so many delegate-rich states coming on the heels of the early primary states, like California, like Illinois," says Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime, in an interview with The Associated Press. "It is clearly a huge amount of delegates that are available Feb. 5 in states where the mayor is leading."

Giuliani dominates in national polls— he leads former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 29 percent to 19 percent in Associated Press-Ipsos polling released last week. He has big leads, too, in California, New York and Florida.

VIDEO Giuliani talks about his run for the White House Nov. 7: NBC’s Brian Williams talks with Republican presidential contender Rudy Giuliani. Today show

He trails in polling in Iowa and New Hampshire — although he's gained ground in New Hampshire — and Thompson has been challenging his lead in South Carolina surveys. That's in part because conservatives who hold sway over those GOP primaries are uncomfortable with Giuliani's more liberal record on cultural issues like abortion and gay rights.

Which states matter most, earlier ones or later, bigger ones?

In Orlando, Fla., retired Army Col. Terry Fiest says he doesn't take marching orders from the early states.

"I think Iowa is a myth," Fiest says. "Iowa is like the starting gate of a marathon. I don't even gauge Iowa."

His friend Craig Hartwig, who lives in Mount Doro, Fla., adds: "We're not bandwagon people."

This sentiment led Florida to move its primary from March to Jan. 29, four weeks after Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Leapfrogging states drew punishment last week, with party officials slashing their convention delegates by half, for violating rules against holding primaries before Feb. 5. The penalties apply to New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming. Iowa will not be penalized because its Jan. 3 caucuses technically are nonbinding, and the same is true of Nevada on Jan. 19.

To win the GOP nomination, a candidate must amass a majority of the 2,380 national convention delegates, most of whom are pledged to support the winner of their states or districts.

After nearly half the states hold nominating contests on Feb. 5, Giuliani, the former New York mayor, could hold a commanding lead in the delegate count.

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