When electorates turn angry

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is not the candidate of change, though she could be. Her last name makes it difficult simply because she appears to be a return to the past, no matter what she says. But her gender gives her an opportunity to become a mainstream radical change agent that the country could talk itself into wanting. The question is whether she'll continue to be cautious and conventional or whether she'll try to tap into this angst. There's risk, of course, but the reward could be huge.

Clinton’s two chief rivals for the Democratic nod are trying to present themselves as both mainstream and yet radical change agents, with John Edwards playing the part of angry populist and Barack Obama trying the intellectual approach. The substance of their arguments are similar; the style of their individual sales pitches are not. For now, Clinton seems to be succeeding because Democrats are split on her alternative and she’s prescribing just enough competent change for voters who are already inclined to believe government works with a competent person in charge.

Obama and Edwards may not be succeeding as well in the Democratic primary because Democrats aren’t ready to throw in the towel and say the government is completely broken. This is the party of the New Deal, the ultimate prescription that government can be part of the solution.

The path to victory
For both Giuliani and Clinton, their paths to victory are easiest if they travel the conventional path well worn by George W. Bush, Al Gore and John Kerry.

Orlin Wagner / AP file Republican presidential hopeful Ron Paul speaks at the National Right to Life Convention in Kansas City, Mo.

But the two are leaving themselves open to someone else becoming the agent of radical change. Maybe it is a sane Ross Perot (think Michael Bloomberg). Or perhaps someone with both the celebrity and ideology of an Arnold Schwarzenegger (Al Gore).

Maybe I discount Ron Paul too much. Maybe his supporters are the first group of folks willing to support a more radical movement toward change. And if Paul proves too quirky to be the true leader of this movement, his supporters may still be wooable to a third party candidate who shows a penchant for change.

Voters want to shake up the system, and they have little trust in their current leaders to do it, be it in Oregon or Utah or New Jersey.

It's possible the electorate could settle down over the next year and cautious change could be the prescription for what ails it. But that’s not what I’m seeing.

I’m heeding the words of Buffalo Springfield: “there’s something happenin’ out here, what it is ain’t exactly clear.”

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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