Bush forced to reassess his faith in Musharraf

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Official: 'This is a slight detour'
Another hopeful scenario in the U.S. view is that Pakistan's emergency states ends fast — a setback, but not a devastating one. Democracy is still the path that Pakistanis want, Johndroe said. "This is a slight detour," he said. "But I think they will get back on it. And we will strongly encourage them to do so."

Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear security expert and senior fellow for the liberal Center for American Progress, said there are few good American policy options in Pakistan. He said Pakistan is the world's most dangerous country — an unstable place of strong Islamic fundamentalist influences and a nuclear arsenal.

"If the government falls, if the Army splits, who gets the weapons?" Cirincione said. "Who gets the material for the weapons? Who gets the scientists who know how to build the weapons? Pakistan could go overnight from a major non-NATO ally to our worst nuclear nightmare."

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Musharraf came into power in a coup in 1999. He became an ally of Bush's after the Sept. 11 attacks, and helped coalition forces battle al-Qaida.

A new balance
Bush must now try to find a balance — maintain a strategic relationship with Pakistan on security without seeming to abandon the importance of human rights.

"Musharraf is losing whatever is left of his legitimacy. And without legitimacy, you can't do anything against terrorism," said Frederic Grare, who served as a counselor for the French embassy in Pakistan.

Grare said Bush still has leverage through U.S. aid to Pakistan, which has totaled more than $10 billion since 2001.

"Let's see how far they are willing to go," Grare said.