S.C. race mirroring GOP contest at large?

Since 1980, every GOP nominee has triumphed in Palmetto State

Republican presidential candidates John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney stand on stage

Joshua Lott / Reuters

Republican presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney stand on stage during a debate in Des Moines, Iowa.

MSNBC video

Thompson's view
Oct. 21: Fred Thompson says the GOP must stop focusing on Hillary Clinton and focus on its own conservative values.

MSNBC

Video: Decision '08

Turning Point: 2008
Nov. 5: NBC's Tom Brokaw recaps the historic election of America's first black president. Produced by msnbc.com's Kevin Flynn.

Looking back at the historic race

NBC calls an Obama win

'Change has come to America'

Decision '08 Election Night video

Barack Obama victory speech

John McCain concession speech

The candidates in pictures

Reuters	Final push Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain make their final appeals to voters.
AP file	John McCain The Republican presidential candidates' life has revolved around the public need.
Punahoe Schools via AP	The life of Barack Obama The path of the president-elect, from childhood to party leader
The Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman via AP	Sarah Palin The fast-track governor's rise from Alaska beauty queen to governor to John McCain’s running mate.
AP file	Joseph Biden The senator's legacy of public service and life filled with second chances.

By LIZ SIDOTI

updated 12:57 p.m. ET Nov. 5, 2007

IRMO, S.C. - The Republican presidential fight in this Southern bastion of rough-and-tumble politics reflects the race at large — a jumble that could go any which way.

History raises the stakes and, if a guide, South Carolina could predict the outcome; since 1980, no Republican has won the nomination without a triumph here in the Palmetto State.

"I'm still deciding. I want to know which one fits what I think the best, so I'm very open," Trish O'Neill, 57, said Saturday while waiting at a hot-dog restaurant to hear from yet another candidate. Next to her, Debbie Plowman, 64, seconded that and, with a hint of exasperation about her indecision, added: "It's getting to be time to figure it out."

Story continues below ↓

advertisement | your ad here

Such sentiments from Republican voters shed light on why each of the four top contenders — Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain — believes he has a strong chance to win here — and why each is playing hard. One poll shows nearly one-third of likely GOP voters are undecided 11 weeks before an expected 600,000 some people vote in the Republican primary on Jan. 19.

"It's unpredictable because of the undecideds. It's open for the top three or four candidates," said Katon Dawson, the state party chairman. Added Tucker Eskew, a veteran of South Carolina GOP politics and George W. Bush's 2000 race: "We've liked our front-runners, and since we don't have one, we have all kinds of fragmentation."

Recent polls show the race tight among three, with McCain trailing.

The dynamics certainly will change before the first-in-the-South primary. Iowa and Michigan hold their contests earlier, and New Hampshire is expected to as well, meaning some candidates could be knocked out before South Carolina.

The campaign here also is expected to get ugly, and possibly personal, with negative messages flooding mailboxes, radio and TV. Already, whisper campaigns have planted notions about McCain's age, 71, Romney's Mormon faith and Giuliani's rocky personal life.

CONTINUED : The contenders

1 | 2 | Next >