Bush strategy: Bash Democratic Congress

Congress left to blame?
"History shows Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both improved their standing in the back end of their terms by doing things," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the Democratic caucus chairman. "He's chosen the opposite strategy. He's trying to figure out someone left to blame."

In challenging Congress, Bush is taking on an institution with even lower public approval ratings than his own.

And even unpopular presidents have an enormous edge with the power of veto. Veto overrides require a two-thirds majority votes in both the House and Senate. In the nation's history, there have been more than 2,500 vetoes. Less than 5 percent have been overridden.

Veto record
Of course, if the veto is Bush's friend, it is a fairly new one. He was the first president to go an entire full first term without vetoing a bill since John Quincy Adams, whose presidency ended in 1829. In total, Bush has vetoed only four bills.

CNBC video   Bush chides Congress on spending bills Oct. 30: President Bush scolded lawmakers saying the Democratic-led Congress hasn't "seen a bill they could not solve without shoving a tax hike into it." CNBC

He is expected to veto a fifth bill on Friday - a $23 billion water projects measure. For the first time, there are enough votes to override his veto.

There are downsides for Bush's veto strategy.

"You have to view a veto as essentially a negative act, not a positive act," said Ken Duberstein, who was Ronald Reagan's last chief of staff. "I would suggest to you right now that the American people are looking for a way for the administration and the Congress to work things out together. Vetoes are not working things out. There is a danger that if you use it not surgically, but as a blanket, you become a negative influence."

Bush's blame-Congress strategy also holds some peril for Republican lawmakers.

Every time they vote to uphold his veto, as they did on the children's health insurance bill, they risk alienating potential voters.

"If the Republicans in Congress want to go to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and stand with the president again, I'll pay their cab fare," Emanuel said. "I'll drive the bus over. Let's make it a daily event. Stay as close as you can to the president's policies. I'd pay for that."

Republicans on the defense in next election
Republicans in the Senate must defend nearly twice as many seats in next year's elections as Democrats. And the challenge is only growing steeper for Republicans, as an increasing number of GOP lawmakers in the House and Senate plan to retire rather than run again - putting even more GOP seats in play.

Each day that the next election gets closer, Republicans are less likely to stand by their president.

"Rule number one is get elected. Rule number two is get re-elected," said Kenneth Sherrill, a political science professor at Hunter College in New York. "They aren't going to go down out of loyalty to somebody who's not running for re-election."

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