Toyota looks to next generation of hybrids

Hybrids are among the experimental, or "concept," models from Toyota's rivals on display at the Tokyo Motor Show which opened last week.

Toyota showed a "concept" plug-in Prius made of carbon fiber reinforced plastic that's about a third of the weight of the current Prius and doubles mileage.

Nissan Motor Co. has fallen behind Toyota in hybrids, and is instead focusing on electric cars with plans to mass market them by 2012.

Toyota officials acknowledge Honda Motor Co. is their biggest threat in developing new hybrids. Honda, which already markets the Civic hybrid, is hot on Toyota's heels with a hybrid sports car, a fuel-cell vehicle and other ecological cars.

Automakers worldwide seem to be taking hybrids as a serious option and demand should grow, said Koji Endo, auto analyst with Credit Suisse Japan. He noted interest in hybrids is growing in other parts of the world, such as China, a burgeoning auto market.

Yasuaki Iwamoto, auto analyst with Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo, says Toyota faces a tough challenge with the next Prius, expected in a few years, with other automakers all hot on its heels.

"The popularity of Toyota's hybrids has been limited so far to the Prius. That means Toyota still has a lot of work to do," he said. "If a car doesn't meet consumer expectations, it won't sell. That's the fate Prius must now shoulder: It can't disappoint fans."

Uchiyamada and Satoshi Ogiso, executive chief engineer working on the next Prius, confidently promise greater things.

The third-generation Prius could include a new lithium-ion battery more advanced than the current nickel-metal hydride battery, allowing more power to be packed into a smaller battery.

But engineers acknowledge that will require a breakthrough in battery technology.

Endo said Toyota must be careful in introducing the lithium-ion battery, which has been found recently to be prone to fires in laptops. Even a single hybrid battery fire could destroy an automaker's reputation, he said.

Uchiyamada denied media reports that problems in developing the lithium-ion battery would delay the new Prius.

Toyota has other options in the works to dramatically boost mileage and performance, so a battery upgrade isn't the only way to revamp the Prius, he said. Toyota recently has begun public road tests on a plug-in hybrid.

Uchiyamada — who has spent 38 years as an engineer at Toyota — admits much of Prius' success was sheer luck.

He still remembers the thrill he felt when he saw a Prius on the streets driven not by an engineer, but by a real customer.

Ogiso, 46, agrees. Toyota workers — who haven't faced massive layoffs like their American counterparts — are invested in the company's future.

"Our bosses are going to be around five more years. But we're going to be leading this company for 10 years, maybe 20 years," he said. "I feel the Prius is like my own child."

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