With strike looming, networks seek new reality

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Networks are busy mulling proposed reality projects that aren't governed by guild contracts.

The shows have the advantage of a quick production timeline, said producer Abrego, with a series able to go from "concept to pitch to air" in just a couple months.

Abrego expects to see networks going straight from a pitch to a series order, bypassing the time-consuming production of a pilot.

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Viewers like reality shows but may be so angry at interruptions to their favorite prime-time programs that they turn off their sets in disgust, some observers fear.

"You don't want viewers turning away from television, because it can be hard to get them to turn back," said Charles Floyd Johnson, an executive producer on "NCIS."

Advertisers, too, would suffer from a long strike and would make networks share their pain.

Advertisers are "not going to get what they paid for," said analyst Shari Anne Brill of ad buyer Carat USA.

"There will be severe under-delivery (of viewers) on the schedule if you get repeats and less-desirable reality shows," she said. "It puts the networks in a horrific make-good situation."

Ad rates are based on predicted ratings; if a show falls short, networks have to make good the difference with additional commercial time.

She noted that ad revenue already was down from predictions, even before the season began.

In May, when the fall network schedules were introduced, advertisers committed to about $8 billion for prime-time commercials, compared to $9 billion just two years ago.

Film production would not immediately suffer the effects of even a prolonged strike because of the long lead time required to make features.

Still, studios could soon be wrestling with plots and endings for unfinished 2009 blockbusters such as "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" and the next James Bond flick.

Once a film is in production, changes occur almost daily, with writers being asked to create new scenes, punch up dialogue or accommodate an actor's ad-libs or vision for a part.

None of that would happen once writers hit the picket line.

"What they are looking for is a script as close to a locked script as they can find," said Duane Adler, a writer who has been rushing to finish a 2009 movie for 20th Century Fox studios.

It's not a good time for Adler to go on strike, but he is ready to walk out if asked.

"I've got a movie coming out, I've got one I want to direct and one that is being fast-tracked," Adler said. "It's a bad time for me personally. But these things are secondary."

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