When good cars sell badly

Fourth, their design might be too radical. Automotive marketers often insist they embrace "polarizing" styling, where people love it or hate it, as long as enough people love it. But shoppers will avoid vehicles with styling that's either too bland at one extreme or too quirky on the other.

Art Spinella, president of CNW Marketing Research in Bandon, Ore., said in a recent newsletter that, after comparing surveys from 2000 vs. earlier this year, "styling" has gained in importance as a reason for purchasing a midsize family sedan, behind "price/incentives," which remains No. 1. "Plain-vanilla styling once was just fine for the buyers of this market segment. No longer," he said.

Brands as diverse as BMW, Nissan and Subaru have performed bigger-than-usual product facelifts in recent years, to make up for new models that either did not age well or stumbled from the start. The current generation of the Nissan Quest debuted in 2003, with far-out, angular styling, which the company largely undid for the 2007 model year. The more radical Quest sold well at first. In fact, Quest sales doubled in 2004, to 46,430. But the new model did not age well. In 2005, Quest sales were down 13%; in 2006, down another 21%. This year, Nissan has slowed the decline, with Quest sales down 7% year to date through September, to 23,169.

Trend spotting
Finally, some wallflowers may not have taken into consideration recent automotive trends. Take large cars and sport-utility vehicles, for example. George Pipas, U.S. sales analysis manager for Ford Motor, points out that there is a general downsizing going on in the market. "This has often been reported in the SUV category, but it's taking place everywhere," he says.

Large sedans are being hit especially hard, outside of the luxury category where models such as the Mercedes S550 and Lexus LS460 continue to sell well. Pipas cites third-party market research, which shows that in 2002, someone who traded in or otherwise disposed of a large car like the Toyota Avalon or Lincoln Town Car bought or leased another large car 65% of the time. In 2006, that figure fell to 57%. Segment definitions vary from company to company, but AutoData reported that sales for what it defines as the Large Car segment were down 15% year to date through September.

"People are more likely to purchase a vehicle that's at least one size smaller," Pipas says.

The same can be said, to a lesser extent, for midsize vehicles like the Toyota Camry or Ford Explorer. In 2002, 56% of midsize "disposers" bought or leased another midsize vehicle; in 2006, it was 53%, according to Pipas.

At the same time, the percentage of those who disposed of a small vehicle and bought or leased another one increased, from 58% in 2002 to 62% in 2006. "Some people would say that's gas prices, and I'm sure that's a factor, but powerful demographic forces are also at work, largely related to the age of the Baby Boomers," Pipas says. "Baby Boomers don't need a vehicle as large as what they did four, or eight, or 12 years ago, because now they're empty nesters."

One thing automotive wallflowers do have going for them: They are often priced to move. For instance, Saab is offering a choice of $5,000 off or 0% financing on the 9-5 sedan, according to the company web site, although incentives may vary by region. Mercedes, which is not well known for discounting, is offering lease deals on the R-Class, and early in the 2008 model year Volkswagen is already offering $309 monthly lease payments on the 2008 Passat, or 2.9% financing.

That's one of the good things about wallflowers — they are usually very happy to dance if you ask them.

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