The ten most competitive Senate races of 2008

Nebraska

Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb.

Whether the contest to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel is competitive depends entirely on whether Democrat Bob Kerrey runs. Kerrey, a former governor who served in the Senate from 1989 to 2000, is president of the New School University in New York City, but he has expressed interest in returning to Nebraska for this race.

Republicans appear to be headed toward a primary pitting popular former Gov. Mike Johanns, who resigned last month as secretary of Agriculture, against state Attorney General Jon Bruning and businessman Pat Flynn. The young and ambitious Bruning was prepared to challenge Hagel in a primary, making it unlikely that he will step aside for Johanns, who has the backing of much of the party establishment. Johanns is favored to win the nomination, but Bruning is likely to force him to really work for it.

A Johanns-Kerrey matchup would be a battle of political titans. If Bruning is the GOP nominee, Kerrey would have a small advantage. Absent a Kerrey candidacy, though, Republicans would be favored to hold the seat.

New Hampshire
Republican John Sununu must feel as if he is running in a different state than the one that elected him to the Senate in 2002. Over the past few years New Hampshire has gone from being a Republican-dominated state to one where Democrats rule. In 2006 alone, voters re-elected the Democratic governor, unseated both GOP members of the U.S. House, and pushed up Democrats' share of seats in the state Legislature from 37 percent to 60 percent.

Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H.

One reason for this shift is the influx of Massachusetts residents who moved to New Hampshire in search of lower taxes and more-affordable housing. Another factor is anger over the war in Iraq. Both issues define Sununu's new reality. His voting record, once seen as in step with the electorate, now appears to be to the right of many voters, especially on Iraq.

Still, if the political landscape looks different, the matchup is familiar. The presumptive Democratic nominee is former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who ran against Sununu in the 2002 Senate race but lost, 47 percent to 51 percent. In that contest, Shaheen presented herself as a moderate who supported Bush's tax cuts and the war in Iraq. Voters are likely to see a very different candidate this time. Sununu portrayed Shaheen as an ineffective governor who didn't address the state's problems. Although he is likely to raise it again, that argument may not be as effective because Shaheen has been out of office for nearly five years.

Polling gives Shaheen a lead of 5 to 16 points, making Sununu his party's most endangered incumbent.

New Mexico
GOP Sen. Pete Domenici's surprise announcement two weeks ago that he is retiring because of health reasons has caused political upheaval in the state as politicians on both sides of the aisle explore bids to succeed him. Open Senate seats are rare in New Mexico; the state has not had one since 1972.

Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M.

On the Republican side, Rep. Heather Wilson immediately jumped in. Wilson, who has represented the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District since 1998 and has had to fight for re-election every two years, is an aggressive campaigner and strong fundraiser with a moderate record in a swing district. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce announced this week that he will run as well. First elected in 2002, Pearce represents the 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses the southern two-thirds of the state. He has easily won re-election.

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez has entered the Democratic primary, but Democrats are courting Lt. Gov. Diane Denish. Developer Don Wiviott was already in the race and says he plans to stay.

This field will take some time to sort itself out, but Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson is casting an imposing shadow over it. Although the term-limited Richardson is running for president and has said he has absolutely no interest in entering this contest, the February 12 filing deadline falls after the early presidential primaries and caucuses, leaving him time to change his mind. If Richardson were to run, he would be a heavy favorite in both the primary and the general election.

If Richardson doesn't run, this should be a very competitive race in a state that both parties will target in the presidential contest.

Oregon
Democrats view Sen. Gordon Smith as another blue-state Republican incumbent ripe for defeat if they can successfully tie him to Bush and the unpopular war.

Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

Smith voted to authorize Bush to use force in Iraq, but has become a vocal opponent of the war. Democrats, however, contend that his conversion is too little, too late. And even though Smith has a relatively moderate voting record, Democrats plan to highlight the instances in which he has voted with Bush and the GOP leadership in the Senate.

Still, Smith won't be easy to oust. He is attentive to constituents and runs solid campaigns. And he can reach into his own deep pockets if necessary.

State House Speaker Jeff Merkley is the favorite to win the Democratic primary, despite a few drawbacks: He isn't well known statewide, and he is an untested fundraiser. He will also have to defend his record in the state Legislature, including voting for a resolution supporting the war in Iraq. Merkley says he voted to support the troops, not the war.

Polling shows a potentially close race, with Smith well under 50 percent and a significant number of voters undecided. The presence of a credible third-party candidate -- John Frohnmayer, who chaired the National Endowment for the Arts during the George H.W. Bush administration -- will complicate the situation further. This contest will become competitive, but Smith holds an advantage for now.

Virginia
This race offers Democrats their best opportunity to pick up a GOP-held seat. Virginia, once solidly red, has joined the ranks of swing states because of Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia, which has accounted for a larger and larger share of the vote.

Sen. John Warner, R-VA

Democrats got their first choice of candidates when former Gov. Mark Warner, who remains very popular, decided to run. Warner dropped out of the 2008 presidential campaign last October, but his short-lived bid afforded him an opportunity to build a national fundraising base.

The situation on the Republican side is not so clear. Rep. Tom Davis, who represents the Northern Virginia-based 11th District, and former Gov. Jim Gilmore are likely to run, although neither has announced. An argument can be made that Davis would be the stronger general election candidate, given his moderate record, Fairfax County base, and fundraising prowess. But the state party has opted to hold a convention rather than a primary, giving the more conservative Gilmore an advantage.

Gilmore would face a number of challenges as the nominee: He lacks a base in Northern Virginia and is considered a weak fundraiser. Warner succeeded Gilmore as governor, and a race involving the two of them would likely become a referendum on their administrations -- with all evidence pointing to Warner as the more popular.

A recent poll gave Warner leads of 35 points over Davis and 30 points over Gilmore. This race is an uphill battle for Republicans.

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