Chrysler workers wary of new labor deal

By contrast, Ford is using about 79 percent of its plant capacity, and that's one reason Ford could be seeking more concessions than Chrysler and GM did, said Erich Merkle, vice president of auto industry forecasting for consulting company IRN Inc. in Grand Rapids. Merkle said Ford needs to match its production with its falling U.S. market share.

Ford is generally considered the weakest of the Detroit Three in this round of contract talks. It lost $12.6 billion in 2006 and has mortgaged its factories to secure a $23.4 billion line of credit to cover losses and fund its restructuring plan, which calls for closing 16 facilities by 2012.

Merkle said he's concerned the UAW will try to make Ford follow the pattern set by Chrysler and GM even though its needs are different. For example, he said, Ford isn't in the position to guarantee future jobs at U.S. plants.

"I just don't think they're going to get the things that they need," Merkle said. "But at the end of the day, the less the UAW gives up, the more it's going to hurt Ford from a financial position long-term."

Ford has at least one advantage in the talks: UAW President Ron Gettelfinger began his career at Ford as a chassis line repairman, rose through the union ranks as a Ford bargainer and continues to have a close relationship to the company. Ahead of this year's talks, Ford President and CEO Alan Mulally said he "couldn't be more pleased" about his relationship to Gettelfinger and other union leaders.

Gettelfinger's relationship with Ford and the fact that talks have been going on for months will diffuse some tension, said Harley Shaiken, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley who specializes in labor issues.

"It will be tough bargaining, which is less subject to a miscalculation than it would have been without the relationship," Shaiken said. "A relationship doesn't make deep differences go away, but they can be approached in a more effective manner."

Workers at the automakers must vote on the contracts before they take effect, so UAW officials will have to convince Ford and Chrysler workers that they did the best they could. Shaiken is already predicting that the UAW will have a tough time selling its tentative agreement to Chrysler workers. He has heard of worker discontent in the plants, with some already upset about the deal.

"It's going to be a tough vote, where confidence in the leadership is balanced against anger at the situation. That's a volatile mix," Shaiken said.

Chrysler didn't get the same health care concessions in 2005 as Ford and GM, mainly because it was in better financial shape at the time. Shaiken said the Chrysler membership would have voted down any concessions at that time, but the situation has changed since then, with Chrysler losing money and being sold off by the former DaimlerChrysler AG.

Still, Chrysler workers may be more skeptical of the contract than workers at GM.

"I think you've got a pattern still in place, tailored to Chrysler, but you're going to have a lot of concerns," Shaiken said.

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