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The campaign blur


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Herein lies Giuliani's built-in advantage. On paper, he's clearly not the most traditionally conservative candidate the party could nominate. But on the number one issue for GOP primary voters, he is.

Two distinctions Romney is trying to draw have yet to draw blood on Giuliani.

The first is immigration. Romney has taken not-so-subtle digs at Giuliani for making New York City a so-called "sanctuary city."

On this issue, Giuliani has been somewhat successful in blurring the distinctions. Like Clinton does with Obama on the war, Giuliani chooses not to talk about the past but instead to simply talk about present: the problem of "sealing the border." It has worked so far. Let's see how it plays out in paid advertising.

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The second distinction Romney is attempting to draw is about his family and Giuliani's, subtly implying his is wholesome while Giuliani’s is not.

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He doesn't do this directly. For instance, earlier this week the Romney campaign launched a separate web site just for is wife, Ann. The campaign is hoping folks like us pick up on this and make comparisons between Ann Romney and the wives of both Giuliani and Thompson. Each have drawn criticism for getting too involved in their husbands’ campaigns.

But so far, neither distinction has stuck for Romney. And if neither ever does, he'll never be the nominee.

Why me?
For a challenger to defeat a frontrunner, he or she has to successfully make the case of why me, which arguably Obama, Edwards, Thompson and Romney have all done fairly well.

But a challenger must also make the case for why it shouldn’t be the other guy, which none of the four top challengers has done well.

I hear criticism from within these challenger campaigns questioning why the media doesn't go after Clinton and Giuliani more. But campaigns that wait for the media to do their job for them never succeed in the long run.

The media isn't going to take down Clinton or Giuliani (though many of THEIR supporters will believe otherwise). The media WILL cover attempts by other campaigns to take down the incumbents.

But so far, none of the challengers has done a good job of creating the necessary distinctions while the two frontrunners have done a remarkable job of blurring the lines.

If Clinton and Giuliani keep it up, they will be the nominees.

And the whole primary campaign will seem like a blur.

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John McCain               

Barack Obama

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