‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Sept. 30, 2007

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. BALZ: So I think that that’s where the Giuliani people think they can perhaps stop Romney before they then go south.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me turn to the Democrats. Here’s Newsweek, Iowa, and look at this: Amongst Democrats, it’s Clinton, 31; Obama, 25; Edwards, 21; Richardson, 6. But amongst likely caucus voters, Obama in the lead with 28; Clinton, 24; Edwards, 22; Richardson, 10. David Gregory:

MR. GREGORY: Well, it’s so interesting because there’s two things going on. There’s a national race, where Hillary Clinton is far, far ahead. And then there’s Iowa, ground zero for the Democrats, and it is a tight race. You see Obama slightly ahead now. This is a three-person race, which is different from the, the national polls, where it’s, it’s primarily Obama and Hillary Clinton, and this is where the ground game is going to be fought for the Democrats. These are three candidates—Edwards, Obama and Clinton—who have spent a lot of time there, strong organizations. A small universe of caucus goers in the end, so organization is really key. You know, this is—this should really show people that this is still a race and not Hillary Clinton running away with it.

MR. RUSSERT: Tavis Smiley, it was interesting in 2004, Howard Dean was ahead in Iowa, and the voters chose John Kerry. Many of them admitted that it was a strategic vote, that they were passionate about Dean, but they thought Kerry could perhaps be a better general election candidate. There’s been some research done, according to the LA Times today, in Montana, which says that, of all the candidates, Hillary Clinton tests least amongst Republican voters, and that in Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, they have found similar reluctance to embrace Hillary Clinton. Is that what’s maybe at work in Iowa, where 60, 65 percent of voters in the Democratic Party are still unwilling to say, “Yes, we want Hillary,” because of a concern about a general election?

MR. SMILEY: Well, there’s two or three things that concern me. One, I think those undecideds are, are important. And these numbers, you know, obviously we, we know they’re plus or minus here. But these numbers really concern me because the undecideds are still so high in that state to begin with, number one. Number two, where Obama is concerned, I used to work for Tom Bradley, the late, great mayor of our state and almost governor, first black governor of California. And when I see those numbers in the races that close, I hope that we’re—we’ve moved past this in America. But whenever I see those kinds of numbers for Obama, I hope they actually stick. I wonder whether or not what people tell the pollsters that they might do is the same as what they will do once they get in the poll, particularly for a guy who happens to be an African-American like Barack Obama. But I think those numbers for him have to be encouraging today.

MR. BUCHANAN: If Obama doesn’t win Iowa, this game is over, because if Edwards...

MR. SMILEY: You sound like, you sound like Michelle Obama.

MR. BUCHANAN: Yeah, she’s dead right on this one, Tavis. Because if Edwards wins, Edwards goes up in New Hampshire and becomes the competitor, and Edwards can’t go the distance. And if Hillary wins, she rolls right through New Hampshire and the game is over. Hillary is in the finals. These two are fighting to get in the semifinals—or get into the finals. And I think—I don’t think Edwards, if he wins, can go the distance. I do think Obama can go the distance, but he can’t get beat in Iowa, in my judgment.

MR. RUSSERT: Dan Balz, a very strong supporter for Hillary Clinton said to me right now Barack Obama is in the stable. But if he gets out of the stable in Iowa...

MR. BALZ: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: ...and starts running, he’s a thoroughbred. Because the independents in New Hampshire could cross over and vote for him, you go to South Carolina, half the Democratic voters are African-American. We have to keep him in the stable in the Iowa. These polls indicate that he has a chance of breaking out, although she still is the front-runner.

MR. BALZ: Well, it’s, it’s why the Clinton campaign, on the one hand, touts every national poll that shows her well ahead while running a campaign in Iowa in which she’s running quite scared, and deservedly so. There’s two things about Iowa that are a problem for her. One is the strength of John Edwards, which, because he is a factor in there, you have a different kind of race than you have anywhere else in the country at this point. And the second is, she has no long history in Iowa.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. BALZ: Bill Clinton never ran in the Iowa caucuses in 1992 because Tom Harkin, senator from Iowa, was running for president, and all the Democrats skipped it. The Clintons do not have the kind of network in Iowa that they have had and been able to develop in New Hampshire. There is not that kind of affection for the—for Hillary Clinton in Iowa that there is for the Clintons in New Hampshire. She has to work this. They are organizing very, very hard out there. She is spending a lot of time. It’s interesting that she gave her health care speech in Iowa, and she delivered a major speech on Iraq in Iowa.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. SMILEY: Yes, but can Obama make it in Iowa, though? Because he hasn’t had that history in Iowa, either.

MR. BALZ: Well, I think there’s, there’s one, one element is, he’s a neighbor.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. BALZ: Eastern Iowa abuts Illinois, and they have worked that side of it very hard.

MR. BUCHANAN: But, Dan, if, if, if Edwards, let’s say he wins Iowa, which obviously he could do. If he wins Iowa, he can’t beat Hillary Rodham Clinton in a national contest, I don’t think. He’s going to have to take matching funds. I don’t think he’s, he’s a national candidate. And that sort of eclipses Obama, who, as Tim said, can break away and win this. He’s got the in—the national image, he’s got the money. I don’t think Edwards can do it. So if Hillary’s going to lose, she wants to lose to Edwards.

MR. RUSSERT: Inevitability is a big part of the Clinton campaign. “We’re going to win this nomination. We’re going to win this election.”

David Gregory, “Saturday Night Live” tried to capture that last night. Let’s watch quickly.

(Videotape, “Saturday Night Live”)

Announcer: The following is an address from the all-but-certain-to-be next president of the United States, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

MS. AMY POEHLER: (As Senator Hillary Clinton) Bill?

MR. DARRELL HAMMOND: (As Bill Clinton) Oh. I’m sorry. Is this not a good place to read?

MS. POEHLER: (As Senator Hillary Clinton) Actually, I was about to start.

MR. HAMMOND: (As Bill Clinton) Yeah, sure, of course. Of course you were.

MS. POEHLER: (As Senator Hillary Clinton) Good evening, my fellow Americans. A little more than a year from now, you, the American people, will go to the polls and elect me president of the United States.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT: That’s it, foregone conclusion, huh? Now, here’s New York magazine, the first lady, William Jefferson Clinton. It is quite interesting how much this is an issue. I asked Senator Clinton about the whole notion of a dynasty—it’ll be from 1980 to 2008 where a Bush or Clinton had been on the national ticket for 28 years. And you just heard President Clinton earlier, David, say, “OK, Hillary was right about no exception to a torture—no torture rule.”

MR. GREGORY: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: It is remarkable how much this is part of the debate, and are—here we are in September of 2007.

MR. GREGORY: I think there’s a couple of issues. One, she, she will constantly fight this issue of being her own president, her own woman, and, and is Bill Clinton, the former president, lurking in the shadows, influencing policy? And the way he wrapped his arms around her answers say she’s her own woman, and she’s thought this through, and that’s what she should really be doing. It’s a land mine he’s always going to be walking through.

The second thing is that I think Republicans—all these Republicans that say she is the inevitable nominee, they want her to be the nominee. The only thing they could get Republicans excited right now in their doldrums is the idea of the Clintons running for president, the notion that it’s two-for-one again. And I, I was thinking about George W. Bush in 2000, ending every stump speech saying “When I put my hand on the Bible, I’ll restore honor and digerty—dignity to the White House.” They’d like to, to rehash some of those themes.

MR. RUSSERT: It, it is interesting, Pat Buchanan, how Barack Obama has been trying to wrestle with this, particularly the issue of experience.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: And this is what he put out the other day, because he was talking about it yesterday in New Hampshire. And it’s an interesting, interesting release from his campaign. This is from the Obama campaign: “Making his 16^th visit to New Hampshire, Senator Barack Obama drew on the words of a previous presidential candidate who, like him, was criticized for being new to Washington politics. ‘I remember what was said years ago by a candidate running for President. He said, “The same old experience is not relevant. You can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience.” Well, that candidate was Bill Clinton. And I think he was absolutely right.’”

MR. GREGORY: The Russert tactic, revealing the source at the end.

MR. BUCHANAN: Well, well, look. I think, I think Obama’s got a real—a real problem here. I don’t think you can defend yourself against the charge of lack of experience by talking about it. What he has to do is—his problem is he’s got Edwards, who is energizing the left wing of the Democratic Party and taking left wing positions. And, and Obama, as it—the more he moves over there, the more he moves out of the center, and I think—and he, and he can’t go after Hillary the way Edwards does, because he’ll ruin this really good national image he’s got of being above politics...

MR. RUSSERT: Politics of hope.

MR. BUCHANAN: Yeah, exactly. And so—and at the same time, he’s got to beat Edwards. So he’s got a very rough position. But let me say this, Tim, in that debate that you hosted, and it was, it was quite a debate, I think the Democratic Party doesn’t know how far to the left they are moving. I mean, they said there that it’s going to be—smoking is going to be a federal crime in public places, 18-year-old Marines can’t drink beer, and six-year-olds are going to be taught about gay marriage. You know, they can’t learn about Adam and Eve, but they can take an elective on Adam and Steve. You know, I can see the Republicans just beating them to death with this and the sanctuary city stuff.

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