‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Sept. 30, 2007

MR. RUSSERT: Some new and interesting and perhaps surprising poll results from Iowa. We’ll talk to Dan Balz, Pat Buchanan, David Gregory and Tavis Smiley after this station break.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT: And we are back. Welcome all.

Tavis Smiley, let me start with you. Thursday night, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland, you invited all the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson did now show up. This is the way you introduced that debate. Let’s watch.

(Videotape)

MR. TAVIS SMILEY: Finally, some of the campaigns who declined our invitation to join us tonight have suggested publicly that this audience will be hostile and unreceptive. Since we’re live on PBS right now, I can’t tell you what I really think of these kinds of comments, but that said, when we meet the six candidates who are here tonight, I know you’ll join me in showing them your utmost respect. Fortunately, there are those in the Republican Party who do understand the importance of reaching out to people of color.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT: That was rather blunt.

MR. SMILEY: Well, I think you have to be. Everyone of them gave as their reason for not being there scheduling. The problem with that logic or illogic, as it were, Tim, is where you say no to every black request you’ve received, when you say no to every Hispanic request you’ve received, is that a scheduling issue or is that a pattern? I think it was a missed opportunity. What I’m encouraged by, though, I think some might expect me to be discouraged this morning or bitter that they didn’t show up, I think they made a huge mistake, and I think that moment the other night is going to become a watershed moment in this campaign as it goes forward because that dog won’t hunt in the general election. You can, you can avoid black and brown in the primary, it doesn’t work in the general. But I’m, I’m, I’m heartened this morning by the fact that I didn’t have to carry the water on this. Newt Gingrich, Jack Kemp, J.C. Watts, Michael Steele, the president himself in his press conference at the White House, everybody in the Republican Party has said they were embarrassed by this, to say nothing of the candidates on the stage that night—Huckabee and Brownback specifically—they were embarrassed, it was a mistake, they should be taken to task for it. So even inside of the Republican Party there’s ambivalence if not anger about the way they mishandled this opportunity.

MR. RUSSERT: Pat Buchanan, you ran for president

MR. PATRICK BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: ...in the, in the Republican Party at one time. This is what Jack Kemp said.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: He ran for vice president in 1996 with Bob Dole. “We sound like we don’t want black people to vote for us.” What we’re—“what are we going to do, meet in a country club in the suburbs one day? If we’re going to be competitive with people of color, we’ve got to ask them for their vote.”

Michael Steele, as Tavis mentioned, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, “The GOP front-runners’ decision were disappointing, to the point of being hurtful. But I understand very clearly and very well the demands of time, the demands for money, the demands on the presidential candidates. But I also understand the demands of a community that needs to hear the candidates’ views.”

Not showing up for this debate with Tavis on PBS, not showing up for the Univision debate with Hispanics, is this a problem for Republicans?

MR. BUCHANAN: Well, it’s a problem if they don’t do it in the general election, but in the primaries, let me explain it, 90 percent of Republican votes are—in the general election are non-Hispanic, white. That is a higher percentage in the primaries, even higher percentage in New Hampshire and Iowa. These are what is going to decide this nomination, Tim. There is a risk going to this gathering here, and there’s very little reward, in my judgment, in those early battles. In Iowa and New Hampshire and Michigan, the first three, if Romney wins those, I think he is, he is on a run—roll to the nomination and only Rudy can stop him. Rudy’s got his own problems in New York with the Amadou Diallo thing, and I can understand why they don’t go down there and get asked about affirmative action. They look at the risks, they look at the rewards, they say, “Look, this is going to be decided in the month of January. How does this help me in January and what we’re building for, the Republican nomination?” So I can understand how their aides would say, “Look, take the hit for not going there, like Rudy took the hit for not going into the Iowa straw poll, and focus on these early states or we’re out of this game.” If they get nominated, I agree they got to do both the Hispanic and the African-American thing, but I can understand their reasoning. I don’t understand why McCain didn’t go, though.

MR. SMILEY: Yeah, but that, but that—if I can jump in right quick—I’m, sorry—but just the question for me, Pat is, what do voters of color who happen to be Republican do until the general? They’re supposed to be ignored all the way through this? There are black and brown Republicans.

MR. BUCHANAN: Well, look, they come out, they come out to the caucus and they vote for the candidate of their choice. Tavis, about, I think, 13 percent of the country is African-American. About 10 percent of the votes are African-American and Republicans get about 10 percent of that. And so taking your time out of the critical areas—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina—does not make sense to me if I were advising them. I would look at the costs, look at the benefits, make the call there.

MR. DAVID GREGORY: But, Tim, you have to look at some of the gains President Bush has made among African-Americans, among Hispanics. We were talking a while ago, about 16 percent of the vote in Ohio, obviously...

MR. RUSSERT: The African-American vote.

MR. GREGORY: ...if you look closely, the African-American vote in Ohio, that matters. And that was in 2004 when one of the Bush messages was a culturally conservative message opposing gay marriages. So just like President Clinton mentioned, there are more African-Americans who might be culturally conservative. They ought to be nurtured rather than, in the general election, having to play defensive. Trying to, to, rebuild those gains could be more difficult for the nominee.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me show you the latest poll in Iowa, of Republicans, Dan Balz. This is Newsweek, all Republicans. We have Romney at 25; Thompson, 16; Giuliani, 15; McCain, 7; Huckabee, 6. With likely caucus voters, Romney’s still ahead at 24; Thompson, 16; Giuliani, 13; McCain, 9; Huckabee, 12. He, he won—did very well at that straw vote. You’ve been living in Iowa. What are you seeing out there with the Republicans?

MR. DAN BALZ: I see two things, Tim. One is that Romney clearly has an early advantage in Iowa, as these polls have shown. The second is that Iowa Republicans—I think like Republicans almost all over the country, have no real idea where they’re going to end up in January. The support for Romney and all the other Republicans in Iowa is very, very soft. He has benefited from the fact that he’s advertised in Iowa, he has spent a lot of time in Iowa, and they’ve organized in Iowa. There’s only one other candidate at this point who’s really done much organizing out there, and that’s John McCain. So Romney has an advantage at this point, but, in some ways, it’s an advantage that may be difficult to hold once the real ad wars begin.

I think the second thing that’s interesting is the potential for Huckabee in Iowa. If, if Governor Huckabee can consolidate the religious social conservative vote out there, he’s going to surprise one of the top four, if not a couple of the top four, and, and embarrass somebody out there.

MR. RUSSERT: Pat Buchanan, the Giuliani strategy seems to be “I can take a hit in Iowa as long as I’m competitive. I can even take a hit in New Hampshire as long as I’m competitive. Because, get me down to South Carolina, get me down to Florida, I’ll still have some money, then bring on Mitt Romney.”

MR. BUCHANAN: I think the, the—it’s interesting that the Romney vote is soft. But this thing almost looks like it was scheduled by the Mormon Church. Look the primaries—you got—Iowa’s coming in at the 5^th of January as of now, New Hampshire’s the 8^th, three days later. That’s not enough time to slow down the winner. Then you got Michigan seven days later. Now, I think the real question is, if Romney can run those three, does he go up enough in the national polls that he can take the negative attack ads? Who’s got the money for negative attack ads? Right now, nobody but Rudy. So he’s going to have to, I think—somebody—somebody’s got to take down Romney, otherwise I think it goes into a Romney-Rudy race. You go to South Carolina, though, that’s going to be Fred Thompson’s one shot.

MR. GREGORY: I was going to say, he could slow down Romney.

MR. BUCHANAN: He’s got one shot there. But from what we know, Thompson does not have the money to go the distance. So if you had to ask me and I were pushed right now, I would say it is a Romney-Rudy race. And if I were Rudy, I’d, I’d get a lot of money somehow into Huckabee in Iowa so he knocks off—you got to slow down Romney from three straight victories. You can’t let him go 3-and-0.

MR. SMILEY: But, Tim, it’s like—let me ask you—it sounds to me like—it sounds to me, though, like we are making the assumption here that it’s a forgone conclusion that Christian conservatives are OK with this guy. Is that—has that Mormon question been settled now where Christian conservative voters are concerned?

MR. BUCHANAN: No, it come—it will come up in South Carolina, Tavis.

MR. SMILEY: Yeah, I...

MR. BUCHANAN: Big time.

MR. SMILEY: I would think so.

MR. RUSSERT: And is it settled about Rudy Giuliani in terms of Christian conservatives?

MR. BUCHANAN: Well, is—that’s the question. Does Romney—see, Romney’s going to have a lot of money. He’s raising money, and he will spend it. They got to start getting that message out on Rudy before they get south. And if they do, and if they can bring him down and he can come in with momentum, Romney may be able to go through there. But that’s the big question, can he, can he run that hurdle?

MR. BALZ: It’s, it’s—South Carolina is a huge hurdle. I think that the—for them for the Romney campaign the goal is as you’ve outlined it. Win Iowa, win New Hampshire, and Michigan now sets up early and, and well for him.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. BALZ: New Hampshire is going to be a real battleground on the Republican side, and there’s a new poll...

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. BALZ: ...University of New Hampshire poll that came out last week there that shows the Republican race much closer than it was, that Romney’s advantage has narrowed.

MR. BUCHANAN: Mm-hmm.

MR. BALZ: Giuliani’s in better shape there.

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