Those pesky campaign expectations

But it's not just the Democratic race that's being shaped by this expectations game.

The Republican race is being framed a similar way.

Giuliani has benefited greatly from artificially low expectations from both the press and conservative activists.

Giuliani doesn't have to prove he's been a conservative from day one, he's simply got to prove he's not the "liberal" that the media and some others have made him out to be.

And because Republican primary voters are pre-disposed to like Giuliani personally (thanks to the good feelings they have for him regarding 9/11), he's got a lower bar to meet to prove his conservative bona-fides.

Conservative activists end up pleasantly surprised Rudy wants to appoint "strict constructionists" to the courts. He's under-promised and over-delivered on the ideological front.

It's something that, right now, frustrates Rudy's opponents who themselves are being hurt from high expectations.

Mitt Romney has an opposite expectations problem on two different fronts. In his attempt to prove his conservative credentials, Romney has over-promised by changing his abortion stance or pumping up his pro-gun stance. And now, he gets hit from opponents for under-delivering.

Romney's other expectations problem is in Iowa and New Hampshire. Because he built up a formidable organization in those two states so quickly, he was able to pop in the polls a lot sooner, frankly, than many Romney folks expected. What's this led to? Romney's no longer running against the GOP field, but himself. It's not fair, but it's how the expectations game works sometimes.

Fred Thompson has perhaps the hardest expectations bar to meet. He's being asked to be the next Ronald Reagan. Well, Reagan wasn't Reagan until about mid-way through his second term. How is it that Thompson can become another Reagan now?  When voters and reporters are asked to gauge whether Thompson is another Reagan, Thompson has already lost the battle of expectations.

The expectations game is just that, a game. The candidates know it matters and they play to it. And whether it's fair or not, the candidate that wins the expectations game usually wins the election. So far, Clinton and Giuliani are winning the expectations and not coincidentally, they are ahead in the national polls.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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